We roll into Week 9 of the NFL season with six more teams on bye and the season half over for many teams. There are some very favorable matchups this week but they seem to all be priced up leaving very few enticing value options to choose from. As a result, lineup construction could be quite challenging on the Sunday main 10-game slate on DraftKings but I did my best to include a few value options in my Top Plays for the week.

UPDATED: For Deshaun Watson (out) and Ezekiel Elliott (in) news.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Buffalo Bills 53 55 60 57 38 56 62 58 -3
New York Jets 51 48 55 36 28 57 33 34 42.5

The Bills travel to New York to face the Jets on Thursday night to kick off the week after a convincing win over the Raiders last week. While the Bills don’t have any “red” marks on their hot sheet line this week it doesn’t mean they won’t be productive against a Jets’ defense that ranks 24th DVOA against the pass and 18th against the run. Tyrod Taylor gets a new weapon with the acquisition of WR Kelvin Benjamin at the trade deadline. While I expect Benjamin to get some snaps and targets he won’t get the volume needed after just joining the team two days ago. Taylor will spread around the targets so only Taylor is a possible option in the passing game. The focus for the Bills’ offense to continue to be on the running game behind LeSean McCoy again this week who has put up 242 rushing yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks against a Jets’ run defense that has allowed 101 rushing yards (23rd) to opposing RBs this season.

The Jets have lost three straight games but all were by seven points or less including games against last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Patriots and Falcons. The Bills’ run defense has been solid allowing the 4th fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs so they should be able to contain the Jets’ duo of Matt Forte and Bilal Powell on the ground. So, look for the Jets to take to the air to move the ball against the Bills’ pass defense that has been leaky lately allowing 317 passing yards (31st) per game over the last five weeks. Jets’ TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins will be the primary target but could struggle to score in the red zone against a Bills’ pass defense that has only allowed 0.9 touchdown passes per game (3rd) this season.

Hot Picks:

  • LeSean McCoy (*)
  • Austin Seferian-Jenkins (*)
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