After a hiatus Thursday due to an inept amount of games on either early or late slates, the Value Index is back and ready to help guide you through another hefty slate.
Tonight’s 14-game affair is jam packed with pitching options plus some offenses in great spot. There is no Coors thankfully, but even the Rockies are in a plus matchup despite being in San Diego.
There’s one game to monitor due to weather and that is in Texas where the Rangers host the Astros in a big-time pitching matchup. We are supposed to see thunderstorms on and off in North and East Texas, so keep tabs via Kevin Roth on Twitter throughout the day to make sure of the status of this game.
As for the rest, let’s get after it!
German Marquez – SP – Colorado Rockies -$7,200
Analysis: Marquez has been a solid addition to the Rockies’ pitching staff. While he has had struggles pitching in Coors (because really, who hasn’t?), he’s been much better on the road. I am a fan of taking Rockies’ pitchers away from Coors, especially when they pitch in big ballparks like PETCO home of the Padres. Marquez has a decent SwStr% over 8 and a K/9 rate of 7.75. The Padres are 27th in team wOBA against RH pitching and strikeout at a 24% clip this season. Marquez provides a lot of SP2 value and safety in this spot.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Miami Marlins – $4,800
Analysis: You know the drill – Stanton vs. a lefty. Tonight’s lefty is Patrick Corbin who has allowed a 38% hard contact rate to RH bats this season. Stanton has been batting in the 2-hole for a few days now and has a home run off of Corbin in his career. You play Stanton.
Matt Kemp – OF – Atlanta Braves – $4,600
Analysis: For the reasons I like Stanton so much, I have the same feelings for Kemp except it is because of the pitcher he is facing. Kemp and the Braves take on Bronson Arroyo in the Great American Smallpark. Arroyo has been ridiculously bad, allowing a .379 wOBA and a 2+ HR/9 rate to RH bats this season. Kemp has been crushing RH pitching, is playing in a hitter’s park and has the BvP numbers against Arroyo with 2 home runs in 6 ABs.
Nolan Arenado – 3B – Colorado Rockies – $4,600
Analysis: Stanton vs. a lefty? Check. Arenado vs. a lefty? Check. This game is in SD, but Arenado is in the elite of the elite club when it comes to RH bats against lefty pitchers, just like Stanton. Big ballpark? No problem.
Corey Seager – SS – Los Angeles Dodgers – $4,300
Analysis: This has to be a double-digit appearance for Corey Seager on the Index. But I can’t help but return to those that have been faithful to me. Seager gets a great matchup in a great ballpark and he is on the road likely batting in the two-hole. It’s a cash game lovers dream because he’s also cheap. Seager takes on Jimmy Nelson in Miller Park.Since 2016, Nelson has allowed a 37% hard contact rate against lefties, a side of the plate he’s struggled with for much of his career.
Brandon Drury – 2B – Arizona Diamondbacks – $3,100
Analysis: I’ve been waiting for Jose Urena to absolutely blow up and here is a great spot for that to happen, against the top-ranked offense against RH pitching. Urena has been a reverse-splits pitcher so far this season, giving up a ..396 wOBA and a 1.96 HR/9 rate to RH bats. Drury has been a beast against RH pitching this season, accruing a .371 wOBA, a .175 ISO and a 32% hard contact rate.
Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Detroit Tigers – $4,200
Analysis: We get to pick on Derek Holland tonight with a bunch of RH bats? Great because Derek Holland sucks, and I like to take any opportunity to use bats against him. Miggy has just 1 HR since May 7 and hasn’t hit a home run in more than 10 games. Cabrera has typically hit better at home than on the road and has owned Derek Holland in his career, with 4 hits in 11 ABs with 2 HRs and 4 walks. Cabrera is super cheap against a lefty tonight, a lefty that I think a lot of people overvalue and DraftKings continues to overprice.
