It was a really, really good week for the experts. Everyone in our season-long MLB Expert Grades improved their score which is the first time that’s happened all year. All our experts have a score above 2.0 now as FantasyPros manged to climb above that threshold. Our man, Brad, continues to flat out dominate the standings. Brad had a couple of monster days this week with his “On the Hill” article and his score now sits at 4.35 for the season. He is now a full point ahead of his nearest competitor. As for our Lineup Construction, we took a bit of a step back this week. Stephen also has a change to his Lineup Construction that will begin this week so read below for the details. Let’s get to it!
In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one expert, but produced an “A+” grade. We will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.
As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the MLB Industry Consensus articles and MLB Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first pitch of the first game to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.
Overall Leaderboard
The top-3 overall are below. Brad continues to absolutely dominate the remaining experts as he widened his gap even further. Be sure to catch his “On the Hill” articles right here at Daily Overlay.
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 4.35) had a monster of a week including our first ever perfect day. Brad keeps getting better and better. The other experts can only hope he somehow falters or they will be looking up at him all season.
#2) DailyRoto (Score: 3.26) continues to hold down the #2 spot in our standings. DR bumped their score this week; unfortunately, they just can’t keep pace with Brad.
#3) Rotocurve (Score: 3.16) is in a similar spot to DailyRoto in that they bumped their score but continue to fall further behind. This is the first time in a few weeks that we’ve had the same expert hold on to the #3 spot for more than one week.
Week in Review
Monday (May 30th)
We took the day off to celebrate Memorial Day and remember those veterans that gave us the freedom to live in the greatest country on the planet!
Tuesday (May 31st)
The experts came out smoking hot on Tuesday. Nine experts finished with a 4.0 score or better!
Industry Consensus Picks
Even when the Consensus has a really nice day, they still finish in the lower half. A 4.0 score for the Consensus hauled in a 9th place finish.
A+ – Jake Arrieta, Jose Fernandez, Joe Ross, Jonathan Lucroy, Ian Kinsler, DJ LeMahieu, Matt Carpenter, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Charlie Blackmon, Jay Bruce, Corey Dickerson
F – A total of 15 of the 39 picks finished in the failing category.
Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 6.25) topped the experts once again. Three of his four picks finished with an “A” or better. Brad was the only expert on Eduardo Rodriguez and his “A+” grade.
#2) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 5.33) made it a clean sweep for the in-house boys on Tuesday. Half of Stephen’s six plays finished with an “A+” grade.
Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Eduardo Rodriguez (Daily Overlay – On the Hill)
A+ – Kole Calhoun (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Lorenzo Cain (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Dillon Gee (FantasyPros)
A+ – Hector Santiago (FantasyPros)
A+ – CJ Cron (FantasyPros)
Wednesday (June 1st)
Another really solid day on Wednesday from the expert group. Only two experts finished with grades of 2.5 or lower and seven finished above the 4.0 threshold.
Industry Consensus Picks
Another good day for the Consensus with a 3.31 score. Unfortunately, that score finished in 13th for the day.
A+ – Jon Lester, Albert Suarez, Wilson Ramos, David Ortiz, Kris Bryant, George Springer, Jake Lamb, Hyun Soo Kim
F – Sixteen of the 36 selections finished with a failing grade.
Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 8.75) brought down the title again on Wednesday with an unbelievable score of 8.75. Brad made four picks, as usual, and brought home three “A+’s” and one “A” grade.
#2) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 5.83) seems to find himself in the top-2 at least one day a week now. After struggling mightily the first month of the season, he seems to be throwing out some better plays now. Four of his six picks finished at “A” or better.
Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Mookie Betts (DailyRoto)
A+ – Brandon Belt (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Michael Fulmer (DK Playbook)
A+ – Mike Fiers (FantasyPros)
A+ – Michael Saunders (FantasyPros)
Friday (June 3rd)
Another nice day from the experts including our first ever perfect score of 10.0! Fifteen experts finished north of 3.0.
Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus finished in 13th for the day with a nice 3.53 score.
A+ – Noah Syndergaard, Drew Pomeranz, Danny Salazar, Victor Martinez, Jurickson Profar, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Matt Kemp, Nomar Mazara
F – Twelve of the 38 selections finished with a failing grade.
Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 10.00) brings home our first ever perfect score! Four picks and four “A+” grades. He is absolutely destroying the competition in our season-long standings. Hop aboard the Brad Train if you have yet to do so.
#2) FantasyWired (Score: 6.00) posted a great score to end the week. Six total picks for three “A+’s” and three “C’s” ended FW’s week.
Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Edwin Encarnacion (DailyRoto)
A+ – Colby Rasmus (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Ricky Nolasco (Daily Overlay – On the Hill)
A+ – Devon Travis (Scout)
A+ – Andres Blanco (FantasyPros)
A+ – Shane Robinson (FantasyPros)
A+ – Logan Morrison (ESPN Daily Notes)
Consensus Lineup Construction Review
We brag on Brad’s Cash lineups and then they strike out this week. We bash Brad’s GPP losing streak and then he finds the money two days in a row. As Ron Washington says “That the way baseball go.” Stephen closed out his final week on FantasyAces and will switch to FantasyDraft starting today. We almost pushed the overall ROI number back into the black last week and then we took a step back this week. Back at it today so be sure to check out our lineups.
Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:
- Matt will make two separate lineups for FanDuel and Brad will do the same for DraftKings, one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments. Stephen will now provide a FantasyAces Cash and GPP lineup for at least two days each week. Stephen will use the same lineup for both Cash and GPP.
- For Cash games, we will try to build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in. This has proven a bit difficult to get a top-tier pitcher in our lineups by using only Consensus plays. For that reason, we now have tweaked the rules a bit and allow for one off the board play in the Cash game format.
- For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
- We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.
Weekly/Overall Results
FanDuel
Not a great week on FanDuel. The GPP format brought home a big ol’ zero for the week! I did manage to find the money (barely!) in the Cash format on Wednesday and Friday.
| Day | Cash Score | Cash Place | Profit (Loss) | GPP Score | GPP Place | Profit (Loss) | Picks By |
| Tuesday | 147.6 | 82/100 | ($2.00) | 169.6 | 3,520/14,450 | ($2.00) | Matt |
| Wednesday | 146.5 | 42/100 | $1.60 | 146.6 | 15,830/48,169 | ($3.00) | Matt |
| Friday | 170.9 | 50/100 | $1.60 | 155.1 | 1,313/4,624 | ($2.00) | Matt |
DraftKings
Just as we brag on Brad’s Cash game lineups, he goes 0-fer this week. However, he turned things around in the GPP format. He broke a 17 day losing streak on Monday with a nice GPP finish and kept the ball rolling on Wednesday as he managed to find the money again in the GPP.
| Day | Cash Score | Cash Place | Profit (Loss) | GPP Score | GPP Place | Profit (Loss) | Picks By |
| Tuesday | 101.15 | 80/100 | ($2.00) | 180.65 | 80/1,176 | $2.00 | Brad |
| Wednesday | 123.1 | 56/100 | ($2.00) | 151.3 | 113/1,176 | $1.50 | Brad |
| Friday | 138.75 | 55/100 | ($2.00) | 95.8 | 1,708/2,352 | ($1.00) | Brad |
FantasyAces
Stephen will shift to FantasyDraft next week. That being said, he did not exactly set the world on fire in his last week on FantasyAces. He found the money in the Cash game on Tuesday.
| Day | Cash Score | Cash Place | Profit (Loss) | GPP Score | GPP Place | Profit (Loss) | Picks By |
| Tuesday | 82.75 | 77/300 | $0.90 | 82.75 | 181/883 | ($2.75) | Stephen |
| Wednesday | 71 | 126/220 | ($1.10) | 71 | 316/700 | ($2.75) | Stephen |
| Friday | 66.5 | 165/250 | ($1.10) | 66.5 | 407/1,000 | ($2.75) | Stephen |
The grid below shows a recap of the results so far this season. We can’t seem to get that ROI number back in the black. As soon as we get close to it, we take a step back and that was the case this week. FanDuel still manages to return positive dollars. Stephen will make the shift this week from FantasyAces to FantasyDraft so we’ll leave behind those ugly FA numbers.
| FanDuel | Cash Entry Fees | Cash Tot Winnings | Cash ROI | GPP Entry Fees | GPP Tot Winnings | GPP ROI | Tot Entry Fees | Tot Winnings | Tot ROI |
| Matt | $66.00 | $61.20 | -7.3% | $73.00 | $92.51 | 26.7% | $139.00 | $153.71 | 10.6% |
| Stephen | $9.00 | $12.60 | 40.0% | $10.00 | $8.50 | -15.0% | $19.00 | $21.10 | 11.1% |
| FD Overall | $75.00 | $73.80 | -1.6% | $83.00 | $101.01 | 21.7% | $158.00 | $174.81 | 10.6% |
| DraftKings | Cash Entry Fees | Cash Tot Winnings | Cash ROI | GPP Entry Fees | GPP Tot Winnings | GPP ROI | Tot Entry Fees | Tot Winnings | Tot ROI |
| Brad | $72.00 | $64.80 | -10.0% | $36.00 | $30.50 | -15.3% | $108.00 | $95.30 | -11.8% |
| DK Overall | $72.00 | $64.80 | -10.0% | $36.00 | $30.50 | -15.3% | $108.00 | $95.30 | -11.8% |
| FantasyAces | Cash Entry Fees | Cash Tot Winnings | Cash ROI | GPP Entry Fees | GPP Tot Winnings | GPP ROI | Tot Entry Fees | Tot Winnings | Tot ROI |
| Stephen | $16.50 | $8.00 | -51.5% | $44.00 | $22.50 | -48.9% | $60.50 | $30.50 | -49.6% |
| FA Overall | $16.50 | $8.00 | -51.5% | $44.00 | $22.50 | -48.9% | $60.50 | $30.50 | -49.6% |
| Overall | $163.50 | $146.60 | -10.3% | $163.00 | $154.01 | -5.5% | $326.50 | $300.61 | -7.9% |
Ownership Percentage Tracking
Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked so far this season. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.
In addition to the Overall Ownership chart, we have added a couple of items. We broke down ownership percentage by position for the Cash and GPP. You can find those charts below as well.
Overall
| Count | Cash% | GPP% | Total |
| 14 | 68.10% | 42.00% | 1 |
| 13 | 49.60% | 28.40% | 1 |
| 12 | 59.06% | 41.44% | 7 |
| 11 | 58.98% | 35.64% | 5 |
| 10 | 57.43% | 39.56% | 12 |
| 9 | 43.18% | 26.83% | 37 |
| 8 | 34.19% | 22.47% | 55 |
| 7 | 33.42% | 22.26% | 68 |
| 6 | 23.21% | 16.70% | 102 |
| 5 | 21.06% | 16.03% | 188 |
| 4 | 14.27% | 11.78% | 288 |
| 3 | 9.93% | 9.44% | 398 |
| 2 | 6.19% | 6.79% | 717 |
| 1 | 2.95% | 3.74% | 1502 |
Cash by Position
| Count | SP | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | Total |
| 14 | 68.10% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 68.10% |
| 13 | 49.60% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 49.60% |
| 12 | 72.76% | 32.50% | N/A | 17.10% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 59.06% |
| 11 | 61.88% | N/A | 47.40% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 58.98% |
| 10 | 58.10% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 26.50% | 79.50% | 60.20% | 57.43% |
| 9 | 51.48% | N/A | 36.27% | 30.96% | 49.70% | 29.17% | 39.36% | 43.18% |
| 8 | 25.82% | 29.07% | 31.29% | 41.62% | 31.55% | 41.90% | 52.02% | 34.19% |
| 7 | 33.42% | 31.43% | 22.78% | 29.32% | 43.05% | 33.55% | 33.00% | 33.42% |
| 6 | 23.91% | 24.35% | 19.71% | 15.50% | 19.20% | 25.53% | 27.67% | 23.21% |
| 5 | 21.79% | 19.88% | 19.47% | 21.09% | 18.91% | 17.41% | 24.29% | 21.06% |
| 4 | 13.19% | 15.88% | 11.49% | 11.05% | 12.09% | 13.09% | 19.03% | 14.27% |
| 3 | 11.76% | 10.65% | 8.82% | 9.19% | 10.44% | 7.81% | 10.42% | 9.93% |
| 2 | 7.70% | 5.44% | 4.69% | 5.13% | 6.37% | 4.62% | 7.68% | 6.19% |
| 1 | 3.23% | 4.37% | 2.10% | 2.96% | 2.59% | 2.11% | 3.25% | 2.95% |
GPP by Position
| Count | SP | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | Total |
| 14 | 42.00% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 42.00% |
| 13 | 28.40% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 28.40% |
| 12 | 48.86% | 29.90% | N/A | 15.90% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 41.44% |
| 11 | 38.50% | N/A | 24.20% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 35.64% |
| 10 | 40.92% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 17.10% | 61.00% | 28.30% | 39.56% |
| 9 | 34.17% | N/A | 15.50% | 19.08% | 31.18% | 17.57% | 23.00% | 26.83% |
| 8 | 22.69% | 17.38% | 17.63% | 22.30% | 20.78% | 19.85% | 35.68% | 22.47% |
| 7 | 23.74% | 19.50% | 15.60% | 18.28% | 27.74% | 21.21% | 21.53% | 22.26% |
| 6 | 20.80% | 17.00% | 14.36% | 11.68% | 14.45% | 15.84% | 17.31% | 16.70% |
| 5 | 19.16% | 14.35% | 14.76% | 15.42% | 15.35% | 13.24% | 16.87% | 16.03% |
| 4 | 14.05% | 14.19% | 8.96% | 9.93% | 11.98% | 9.77% | 13.29% | 11.78% |
| 3 | 12.30% | 10.19% | 6.50% | 8.96% | 10.66% | 7.66% | 9.75% | 9.44% |
| 2 | 10.12% | 7.10% | 5.38% | 5.81% | 6.59% | 5.37% | 7.36% | 6.79% |
| 1 | 5.45% | 4.38% | 2.94% | 3.60% | 3.05% | 2.99% | 3.94% | 3.74% |
Same story, different week. The ownership percentages trend in the direction that we expect. It’s certainly interesting to look at these numbers every week. Any insights that you, the reader, can glean from these?
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