MLB – On the Hill – May 9

Time for another week of “On the Hill” pitcher recommendations following good results again last week including two A+ grades on Friday. Tonight we have a lot of Ace pitchers to choose from and most of them are in a good spot but I will give you my favorite. I will also have a pitcher making his third appearance in the column and a Darkhorse pick that might be ready for a breakout performance.

Ace

Jose Fernandez (FD-$10,800 / DK-$11,300)

Fernandez comes in as my top Ace pitcher of the night. He is a huge favorite pitching at home against the Brewers’ Wily Peralta. Through his first six starts, Fernandez has a career-high K/9 going at 12.56 and while his ERA is 4.28, he has a 2.85 xFIP. Tonight he faces a Brewers team that has struck out 25.0% of the time against righties and a have a negative park effect going from Miller Park to Marlins Park. I do expect many of the aces to pitch well tonight but I expect Fernandez to lead the pack.

Value

Steven Matz (FD-$9,700 / DK-$9,300)

I expect Matz to be in a pitcher’s duel with the Dodgers’ Scott Kazmir tonight in a game with a close Vegas line and low run total. Matz has pitched well this season with a 2.83 ERA that is supported by a 2.79 xFIP to go along with 9.4 K/9. Matz faced the Dodgers once last season and held them to zero runs over six innings with eight strikeouts. If you want to save some money on starting pitcher tonight or fade all the Aces in a GPP then Matz is a solid option to turn to.

Aaron Sanchez (FD-$7,100 / DK-$6,900)

Sanchez is becoming a favorite of mine as he appears in my column for the third time already this season. A big reason is his price as it appears that the FanDuel and DraftKings pricing algorithms just don’t care for him much. If not sure what their system doesn’t like as he holds a 2.82 ERA this season and a career 3.28 ERA (3.15 xFIP) over 17 big league starts. He does struggle against left-handed batters and the Giants do have some solid lefties but he can completely shut down righties with a career .193 wOBA against them. Sanchez might not rack up huge strikeout totals tonight but he should post solid fantasy numbers and have a good chance for the win making him a solid #2 pitcher option in two-pitcher sites.

Darkhorse

Jose Berrios (FD-$6,500 / DK-$7,000)

Berrios will be making just his third big league start on Monday night when he faces the Orioles in Minnesota. Berrios showed improvement in his second start against the Astros with eight strikeouts over 5+ innings. Tonight’s opponent the Orioles profile as similar hitting team to the Astros so I expect Berrios to make another step forward tonight. Berrios will need to get his walks under control so he can get deeper into the game to give him a chance for the win. Berrios is a good high upside GPP option tonight.

On the Hill – Results

Friday

• Darkhorse pick Rich Hill had his game postponed

Season

• DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
• DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
• DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type

Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.

Follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot