If you were planning on becoming a millionaire in one fail swoop playing daily fantasy football, Week 15 is your last chance on DraftKings.
The final Millionaire Maker challenge will run this week, so I hope the information provided helps one of you become a 7-figure winner.
As usual, we will run through Week 14’s games, look at grades and records, buy and sell Week 15 and end with a look at Vegas team records and actual team records.
Good luck in week 15. I hope success finds you well, now let’s dive right in, the water is fine.
|Week 14||Opening O/U||Opening Spread||Opening ML||Closing O/U||Closing Spread||Closing ML||Projected Score||Final Score||Grade|
|Indianapolis at Jacksonville||45||-1.5 – Ind||Even||46||-1 – Jax||-120 – Jax||23.5 – 22.5 – Jax||51-16 – Jax||1 pt. – F|
|Pittsburgh at Cincinnati||47||-3.5 – Cin||-170 – Cin||49||-1 – Cin||-120 – Cin||25 – 24 – Cin||33-20 – Pit||3 pts. – C|
|Washington at Chicago||44||-1 – Chi||-180 – Chi||43||-4 – Chi||-210 – Chi||23.5 – 19.5 – Chi||24-21 – Was||3 pts. – C|
|Detroit at St. Louis||40.5||-2.5 – Stl||-125 – Stl||41.5||-3 – Det||-155 – Det||22.25 – 19.25 – Det||21-14 – Stl||3 pts. – C|
|San Francisco at Cleveland||40.5||Even||-125 – Cle||43||-2.5 – Cle||-140 – Cle||22.75 – 20.25 – Cle||24-10 – Cle||3 pts. – C|
|Buffalo at Philadelphia||46.5||-1 – Phi||-135 – Phi||48||-1 – Phi||-125 – Phi||24.5 – 23.5 – Phi||23-20 – Phi||2 pts. – D|
|San Diego at Kansas City||46.5||-7.5 – KC||-510 – KC||42||-11.5 – KC||-600 – KC||26.75 – 15.25 – KC||10-3 – KC||5 pts. – B|
|Atlanta at Carolina||47||-6.5 – Car||-360 – Car||45||-8.5 – Car||-380 – Car||26.75 – 18.25 – Car||38-0 – Car||5 pts. – B|
|New Orleans at Tampa Bay||50.5||-2.5 – TB||-225 – TB||51.5||-6 – TB||-250 – TB||28.75 – 22.75 – TB||24-17 – NO||-1 pt. – F|
|Tennessee at NY Jets||43.5||-6 – NYJ||-345 – NYJ||43||-8 – NYJ||-350 – NYJ||25.5 – 17.5 – NYJ||30-8 – NYJ||5 pts. – B|
|Seattle at Baltimore||42.5||-5 – Sea||-455 – Sea||42||-10.5 – Sea||-500 -Sea||26.25 – 15.75 – Sea||35-6 – Sea||6 pts. – B|
|Oakland at Denver||44||-6 – Den||-360 – Den||43||-6 – Den||-260 – Den||24.5 – 18.5 – Den||15-12 – Oak||1 pt. – F|
|Dallas at Green Bay||44||-5 – GB||-450 – GB||42.5||-6.5 – GB||-300 – GB||24.5 – 18 – GB||28-7 – GB||3 pts. – C|
|New England at Houston||44.5||-3.5 – NE||-195 – NE||46.5||-5 – NE||-240 – NE||25.75 – 20.75 – NE||27-6 – NE||3 pts. – C|
|NY Giants at Miami||47.5||Even||-120 – Mia||48||-2 – NYG||-130 – NYG||25 – 23 – NYG||31-24 – NYG||4 pts. – B|
Eleven out of the 15 games on the Sunday-Monday slate hit the under, a number we haven’t seen this season. Definitely an outlier, if you ask me.
Favorites went 10-5 with a few surprises in the loss column. New Orleans and Tampa Bay had the highest projected total on the board. Not only did the game not fulfill its points standard, but the Bucs had a huge let down against the weakest defense in all of football.
Giants and Dolphins met all expectations, including a Giants victory. They, the Redskins and the Eagles picked up wins to keep pace with each other for the NFC East while knocking the Cowboys down another beg (but not completely out).
Packers had no trouble with the aforementioned Cowboys, which is no surprise. A lot of my Cowboys’ homer friends had high hopes, but not I, nor did I really want the Cowboys to win (see last week’s post on why), and I don’t want them to win Saturday against the Jets.
Another outlier, which is a big chunk of the reason for all the unders, are the number of teams that failed hit double-digit points.
San Diego, Tennessee, Baltimore, Dallas and Houston all failed to reach double digits. Kansas City, Indianapolis, Detroit, San Francisco, Oakland and Denver all scored within the 10-15 point range.
Atlanta failed to score at all against the Panthers, easily the Falcons’ lowest point of the season (that will change this week though, see below).
For the second week in a row, the Bears were heavily favored at home, and for the second week in a row, they have failed to meet expectations, accruing two losses.
The biggest news from the week (outside of Rob Gronkowski’s return to the Patriots) was the loss of QB Andy Dalton to a thumb injury, ultimately ending his season. A.J. McCarron stepped in and hit A.J. Green on a long pass play for a TD, but it was in a loss to division rival Pittsburgh. The Steelers are trending up and the Bengals are trending way down.
The last surprise of the day was Jacksonville’s 51 points, the largest total of anyone in Week 14. I really like what the Jags are putting together. The Allens Parsons Project (anyone getting that nickname going yet?) and QB Blake Bortles continue to play very well. RB T.J. Yeldon has been a true workhorse back, but he looks to be out for Week 15. I don’t think the Jags get into the playoffs this year, but they still have a shot. I just hope they can get some pieces in their defense to shore that up because that’s really what has killed them this season. The offense is there, but the defense needs work.
How did Vegas do this week? Quite well. Eleven out of the 15 games earned C grades or higher and only three failed. We haven’t seen an A in a very long time, but that streak is bound to break before the season concludes. See the table below to check out how grades panned out and the seasonal totals.
|Scale||Week 14 Grades||Total Grades|
|1 or less – F||A – 0||A – 5|
|2 – D||B – 5||B – 61|
|3 – C||C – 6||C – 39|
|4-6 – B||D – 1||D – 42|
|7-8 – A||F – 3||F – 43|
Below we will take a look in Week 15. There is plenty of data out there to help us down the stretch. So check out what I am buying and selling under the table below.
|Week 15||Opening O/U||Opening Spread||Opening ML|
|Houston at Indianapolis||42.5||-1 – Ind||N/A|
|Kansas City at Baltimore||43||-7 – KC||-302- KC|
|Tennessee at New England||46.5||-12.5 – NE||-1100 – NE|
|Chicago at Minnesota||43||-4.5 – Min||-250 – Min|
|Atlanta at Jacksonville||48||-3 – Jax||-165 – Jax|
|Buffalo at Washington||44||Even||-125 – Buf|
|Carolina at NY Giants||49||-4 – Car||-190 – Car|
|Green Bay at Oakland||46.5||-2.5 – GB||-160 – GB|
|Cleveland at Seattle||43||-14 – Sea||-1099 – Sea|
|Miami at San Diego||45.5||Even||N/A|
|Denver at Pittsburgh||45||-6.5 – Pit||-270 – Pit|
|Cincinnati at San Francisco||42||-4 – Cin||-195 – Cin|
|Arizona at Philadephia||50.5||-3.5 – Ari||-170 – Ari|
|Detroit at New Orleans||51||-3 – NO||-160 – NO|
The Top Favorites – Seattle, New England and Kansas City are the top favorites on the board. NE and Seattle have very large moneylines in their favor, meaning you shouldn’t bet against them. It is easy to see why. Cleveland rolling into Seattle against a hot Seahawk team. Tennessee at Foxboro against the Patriots that just got Gronk back. Kansas City gets to take on a patchwork Baltimore team that surrendered 35 to Seattle, which is down Lynch, Jimmy Graham and now Thomas Rawls. Betting on these teams for DFS and straight betting are safe picks.
New Orleans/Detroit Projected Points – The Lions have played well at this point in the season, despite underwhelming against a hampered Rams team last week. This week they get New Orleans on Monday night. The Saints’ defense hasn’t changed. They are still bad and the Lions can still strike at ease with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. I expect a shootout here and for good reason. The Lions’ defense has played better of late, but it gave up 21 to the Rams, so the holes are still there and the Saints play much better at home than on the road. Give me all the shares of this game I can handle.
Atlanta/Jacksonville Projected Points – I know Atlanta has been bad, but Jacksonville is easily a team that can cure its ills. The Jags’ secondary has been quite awful for much of the season, and the Jags’ offense is still turnover prone. With T.J. Yeldon getting hurt, I can see Bortles chucking the ball 40-50 times this week, although they should still be able to run the ball on the Falcons, who boast one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Julio Jones is one of my favorite plays of the week (and probably many others), but he could literally go berzerk on the stat sheet, especially if Jacob Tamme were to sit. Both teams need a win to continue any playoff hopes, so points should be plentiful here.
Giants/Panthers Projected Point Total – I get it. You expect a high-scoring game with these two teams. However, there are some important aspects to take note of here. Odell Beckham is one of the best receivers in the game, and he could easily go off for his 7th-straight 100-yard game. But he has CB Josh Norman in his crosshairs and the Panthers are still not getting the respect they deserve for being 13-0. Norman has shut down every top receiver he’s been up against this season. Eli will pepper ODB with targets no matter what because the Giants’ don’t have a running game. I like Will Tye at TE for the G-men as well. Tight End has been a weakness for the Panthers this season, and Eli has built a positive rapport with Tye. The Panthers also will be without Jonathan Stewart this week. Fozzy Whitaker and Mike Tolbert will share duties, but they aren’t Jonathan Stewart. Greg Olsen also is nursing an injury, and if he can’t go, Cam may have a difficult time hitting his receivers against a stiff Giants’ secondary. Be careful with this projection. I like the under on this one.
Arizona/Philadelphia Point Total – Another game I understand why it has a high point total. The Arizona Cardinals have been great offensively all season long while the Eagles have played well the past two weeks. Unfortunately, the Eagles didn’t put up all of those points on offense against the Pats, it was their defense, and they only managed 23 points last week against the Bills. Sam Bradford is not a very good QB, Demarco Murray is an afterthought and Jordan Matthews is not a No. 1 receiver. The Cardinals have all kinds of weapons to thwart Philly on offense. Patrick Peterson and The Honey Badger are two of the top secondary players in the league, not to mention the Cardinals’ ability to stop the run. I think this game ends under the total, but I believe it is a Cardinal blowout. The Eagles’ defense has holes, the offense won’t be able to keep Arizona’s offense off the field, and Carson Palmer is playing his best football of his career, as is Larry Fitzgerald. I REALLY love the Cardinals in this spot, can’t you tell?
Cincinnati as favorites – A four-point favorite against a San Francisco team that plays much better at home? The 49ers are not a good football team, but since Blaine Gabbert has been inserted at QB, they have shown the ability to move the ball and put a few points on the board. I am not going to trust QB McCarron to waltz into San Fran, where the Niners have allowed teams to score more than 20 points once (and that was by Arizona, barely). I imagine Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard get a lot of run against a weak SF defense, but without Dalton, I think the Bengals struggle. San Fran is going to want to play spoiler and should be confident against Cincy, which is without one of its offensive leaders.
|O vs. U – 4-11||O vs. U – 90-94-5|
|Favorite vs. Underdog – 10-5||Favorite vs. Underdog – 116-69-1|
|Favorite Wins with <120 Money Line – 0-0||Team Wins with <120 Money Line – 6-1|
|Favorite Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 3-1||Team Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 14-15|
|Favorite Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 1-1||Team Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 20-8|
|Favorite Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 0-0||Team Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 14-8|
|Favorite Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 1-3||Team Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 31-21|
|Favorite Wins with 300+ Money Line – 4-0||Team Wins with 300+ Money Line – 33-12|
|Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 9-3||Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 62-33|
|Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 1-0||Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 29-32|
|Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 1-1||Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 20-5|
|High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Pts. – 1-1||High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Points – 20-23|
|Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 2-0||Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 9-15|
|Divisional Games O vs. U – 2-4||Divisional Games O vs. U – 29-31-1|
|Division O/U 48+ O vs. U – 0-1||Division O/U 48+ O vs. U – 6-8|
|Division O/U 42-47.5 O vs. U – 2-3||Division O/U 42-47.5 O vs. U – 22-19-1|
|Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 0-0||Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 2-2|
I’ve really focused on a specific trend above. While moneylines -300 and higher have been fruitful, favorites with spreads that have stayed the same from opening to close are seeing lots of success.
We actually had our first “loss” in that range for the first time in I can’t even remember. But we did get to add another win to the constant spread record book for a yearly total of 20-5. That’s an 80 percent success rate for favorites. Keep utilizing this information the rest of the year. I think it’s a viable option for you to utilize.
Divisional games continue to be about even on over/unders. There’s not a lot of trust in projections for these games. Injury news, play trends, individual player match ups, yards and points allowed stats still need to be used to give you the best idea of who to play in DFS.
Meanwhile, favorites also continue to perform well with money lines with -140-169. Also something to monitor.
|Team||Vegas Records Through Week 14||Actual Records Through Week 14|
|Atlanta Falcons||8 – 4 – 1||6 – 7|
|Arizona Cardinals||12 – 1||11 – 2|
|Baltimore Ravens||8 – 5||3 – 10|
|Buffalo Bills||4 – 7 – 1||6 – 6|
|Carolina Panthers||10 – 3||13 – 0|
|Chicago Bears||2 – 11||5 – 8|
|Cincinnati Bengals||10 – 2 – 1||10 – 3|
|Cleveland Browns||4 – 9||3 – 10|
|Dallas Cowboys||5 – 8||4 – 9|
|Denver Broncos||10 – 3||10 – 3|
|Detroit Lions||3 – 10||4 – 9|
|Green Bay Packers||12 – 1||9 – 4|
|Houston Texans||6 – 7||6 – 7|
|Indianapolis Colts||7 – 6||6 – 7|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||3 – 10||5 – 8|
|Kansas City Chiefs||8 – 5||8 – 5|
|Miami Dolphins||5 – 8||6 – 7|
|Minnesota Vikings||7 – 6||8 – 5|
|New England Patriots||13 – 0||11 – 2|
|New Orleans Saints||5 – 8||5 – 8|
|New York Giants||7 – 6||6 – 7|
|New York Jets||11 – 2||7 – 6|
|Oakland Raiders||4 – 9||6 – 6|
|Philadelphia Eagles||9 – 3||6 – 7|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||4 – 8 – 1||9 – 4|
|San Diego Chargers||5 – 8||3 – 10|
|San Francisco 49ers||1 – 12||4 – 9|
|Seattle Seahawks||11 – 2||7 – 6|
|St. Louis Rams||6 – 7||6 – 7|
|Tampa Bay Buccanneers||3 – 9 – 1||5 – 7 – 1|
|Tennessee Titans||3 – 9 – 1||3 – 10|
|Washington Redskins||2 – 11||6 – 7|
Above we have Vegas and Season-long team records. It looks like we might only have a handful of teams with 10 wins or more by the end of the season. That seems rather unusual to me. It also speaks of the parity in the league, however injuries could be playing a larger role in futility many teams are experiencing this season.
Anyway, good luck in DFS this week. Also, Merry Christmas!