Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and Happy Holidays to everyone reading.

I wish you the best during this time of giving and family.

This week’s Vegas write-up is going to be very brief. It was just difficult to get around to the commentary this week with all the hubbub.

Everything is business as usual and I have some buying and selling options when looking ahead to Week 16, but the narrative won’t be in-depth.

Good luck if you find time to sneak in those lineups. May DFS be kind to you.

Week 15Opening O/UOpening SpreadOpening MLClosing O/UClosing SpreadClosing MLProjected ScoreFinal ScoreGrade
Houston at Indianapolis42.5-1 – IndEven42-2 – Ind-130 – Ind22 – 20 – Ind16-10 – Hou2 pts. – D
Kansas City at Baltimore43-7 – KC-302- KC41-7 – KC-280 – KC24 – 17 – KC34-14 – KC2 pts. – D
Tennessee at New England46.5-12.5 – NE-1100 – NE48-14.5 – NE-1100 – NE31.25 – 16.75 – NE33-16 – NE6 pts. – B
Chicago at Minnesota43-4.5 – Min-250 – Min44-4 – Min-200 – Min24 – 20 – Min38-17 – Min2 pts. – D
Atlanta at Jacksonville48-3 – Jax-165 – Jax48-2 – Jax-130 – Jax25 – 23 – Jax23-17 – Atl1 pt. – F
Buffalo at Washington44Even-125 – Buf46-2 – Buf-130 – Buf24 – 22 – Buf35-25 – Wash1 pt. – F
Carolina at NY Giants49-4 – Car-190 – Car46.5-5 – Car-225 – Car25.75 – 20.75 – Car38-35 – Car5 pts. – B
Green Bay at Oakland46.5-2.5 – GB-160 – GB47-4 – GB-205 – GB25.5 – 21.5 – GB30-20 – GB7 pts. – A
Cleveland at Seattle43-14 – Sea-1099 – Sea45.5-14.5 – Sea-1200 – Sea30 – 15.5 – Sea30-13 – Sea7 pts. – A
Miami at San Diego45.5EvenEven47-1 – SDEven24 – 23 – SD30-14 – SD5 pts. – B
Denver at Pittsburgh45-6.5 – Pit-270 – Pit45.5-7 – Pit-330 – Pit26.25 – 19.25 – Pit34-27 – Pit3 pts. – C
Cincinnati at San Francisco42-4 – Cin-195 – Cin40.5-7 – Cin-300 – Cin23.75 – 16.75 – Cin24-14 – Cin7 pts. – A
Arizona at Philadelphia50.5-3.5 – Ari-170 – Ari51-4 – Ari-200 – Ari27.5 – 23.5 – Ari40-17 – Ari5 pts. – B
Detroit at New Orleans51-3 – NO-160 – NO52.5-2.5 – NO-145 – NO27.5 – 25 – NO35-27 – Det2 pts. – D

Did you hear about the woman who pulled off the 15-team parlay bet in Week 15?

She bet $5, won $100K. Crazy luck, but good for her. I enjoy hearing out-of-this-world stories like that.

Anyway, moving right along to the grades. We had 3 As! We had 5 all year long and then a 3-burger this week. Pretty great for Vegas, which recorded 8 grades of C or better. There were 5 Fs, including the Falcons/Jaguars game (very disappointing for me in DFS as well).

Below are the total grades for Week 15 and for the year.

ScaleWeek 15 GradesTotal Grades
1 or less – FA – 3A – 8
2 – DB – 4B – 65
3 – CC – 1C – 40
4-6 – BD – 4D – 46
7-8 – AF – 5F – 48

Now let’s take a quick look into Week 16, where we will have 14 games for the second week in a row as Saturday occupies at least one game for the rest of the year.

Week 16Opening O/UOpening SpreadOpening ML
San Francisco at Detroit40.5-8.5 – Det-380 – Det
Indianapolis at Miami44-1 – Mia-125 – Mia
New England at NY Jets45.5-3 – NE-160 – NE
Dallas at Buffalo43-5.5 – Buf-275 – Buf
Houston at TennesseeN/AN/AN/A
Carolina at Atlanta46-6.5 – Car-270 – Car
Cleveland at Kansas City45-12.5 – KC-699 – KC
Chicago at Tampa Bay44.5-2.5 – TB-150 – TB
Pittsburgh at Baltimore48.5-9.5 – Pit-510 – Pit
Jacksonville at New Orleans51.5-3.5 – NON/A
St. Louis at Seattle40-14 – Sea-690 – Sea
Green Bay at Arizona49.5-4 – Ari-225 – Ari
NY Giants at Minnesota44.5-4 – Min-270 – Min
Cincinnati at Denver42-3.5 – Den-195 – Den

Houston and Tennessee didn’t have any lines released at the time of publishing. I assume this is because Vegas is waiting to hear about the status of Texans’ QB Brian Hoyer. If he plays, that changes this game entirely.

Why? Because Brandon Weeden. He will single-handedly tank Nuk’s value if he starts (trust me, I am a Cowboys’ fan and he couldn’t hit No. 88 if he were 10-feet tall).

If Brian Hoyer plays, fire him and Nuk up. I am putting that order on lay-a-way until I hear of the news.

I am also going to SELL Antonio Brown’s value this week. Don’t get me wrong, he could go nuts, and I wouldn’t be surprised. I will be using him in cash games and tournaments. However, I think his ownership will be high in tournaments and his ceiling may take a hit due to the opponent. If the Steelers’ get up big quickly, which I expect, Brown won’t be needed for much of the game. Hope he scores early and often, but Martavis Bryant is there to steal some of the thunder as well.

If Baltimore can somehow keep it close with the Ryan Mallet or Jimmy Clausen tandem, then I like the over in this game, but I am just going to choose the under, in a blowout.

I am buying Jacksonville and New Orleans on the over this week, but ONLY if the Saints start Drew Brees. With the Saints out of the playoff picture, they didn’t put up much of a fight against the Lions in a losing effort on Monday night. With nothing to play for and career records in hand, I could see Brees sitting, which would really hinder the Saints’ offensive production, even against a porous Jags’ D. Love the Jags no matter what, though.

Also selling the points on the Arizona/GB game. Arizona is at home and Green Bay still hasn’t convinced me it is a consistent enough offense to move the ball down the field enough. Tyrann Mathieu’s injury could make things interesting though, so I think GB gets a bump offensively without the Honey Badger.

Lastly, I am buying Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin. A major down week due to injury and a huge lead hindered AP’s production against the Bears. But now he gets extra rest for a Sunday night tilt against the Giants, who could very well lay down after an emotional loss to the Panthers last week. Peterson should shoulder the load and hopefully he plays the entire game without a setback.

As for the Muscle Hamster, Lovie Smith wants to get him that rushing title. He’s facing the leaky Bears’ run D at home and he’s had a couple of down weeks. Love the Douggernaught this week.

Week 15Overall
O vs. U – 9-5O vs. U – 99-99-5
Favorite vs. Underdog – 10-4Favorite vs. Underdog – 126-73-1
Favorite Wins with <120 Money Line – 0-0Team Wins with <120 Money Line – 6-1
Favorite Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 0-3Team Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 14-18
Favorite Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 0-1Team Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 20-9
Favorite Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 0-0Team Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 14-8
Favorite Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 5-0Team Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 40-21
Favorite Wins with 300+ Money Line – 4-0Team Wins with 300+ Money Line – 37-12
Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 6-1Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 68-34
Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 2-2Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 31-34
Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 1-0Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 21-5
High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Pts. – 3-1High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Points – 23-24
Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 2-1Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 10-16
Divisional Games O vs. U – 1-1Divisional Games O vs. U – 30-32-1
Division O/U 48+ O vs. U – 0-0Division O/U 48+ O vs. U – 6-8
Division O/U 42-47.5 O vs. U – 2-3Division O/U 42-47.5 O vs. U – 22-19-1
Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 0-0Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 2-2

Above we have our Vegas records for spreads and money lines. The spread record that stays the same from open to close came through once again this week. At a whopping 21-5, look for the game or games that have that prior to kickoff and roster players in DFS. I bet you will be satisfied.

Below are the usual Vegas team and actual season records for each team. That’s it for this week. Told you it would be short and sweet. Enjoy your family time this weekend and good luck!

TeamVegas Records Through Week 15Actual Records Through Week 15
Atlanta Falcons8 – 5 – 17 – 7
Arizona Cardinals13 – 112 – 2
Baltimore Ravens8 – 63 – 11
Buffalo Bills5 – 7 – 16 – 8
Carolina Panthers11 – 314 – 0
Chicago Bears2 – 125 – 9
Cincinnati Bengals11 – 2 – 111 – 3
Cleveland Browns4 – 103 – 11
Dallas Cowboys5 – 94 – 10
Denver Broncos10 – 410 – 4
Detroit Lions3 – 104 – 9
Green Bay Packers13 – 110 – 4
Houston Texans6 – 87 – 7
Indianapolis Colts7 – 76 – 8
Jacksonville Jaguars3 – 105 – 8
Kansas City Chiefs9 – 59 – 5
Miami Dolphins5 – 96 – 8
Minnesota Vikings8 – 69 – 5
New England Patriots14 – 012 – 2
New Orleans Saints5 – 85 – 8
New York Giants7 – 76 – 8
New York Jets12 – 29 – 5
Oakland Raiders4 – 106 – 8
Philadelphia Eagles9 – 46 – 8
Pittsburgh Steelers5 – 8 – 110 – 4
San Diego Chargers6 – 84 – 10
San Francisco 49ers1 – 134 – 10
Seattle Seahawks12 – 28 – 6
St. Louis Rams7 – 77 – 7
Tampa Bay Buccanneers3 – 10 – 16 – 8
Tennessee Titans3 – 10 – 13 – 11
Washington Redskins3 – 117 – 7
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