Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Charcandrick West, Devonta Freeman, Teddy Bridgewater, Zach Ertz…

Darrelle Revis, Vontae Davis, Patrick Peterson…

Those were the laundry list of names that flooded the injury report at the end of Week 11. Many of these will have major fantasy implications for Week 12.

Flacco and Forsett are done, Freeman may not play, making Tevin Coleman viable while Bridgewater and Ertz should have little fantasy impact. As for West, Knile Davis would be a candidate to fill in should he miss time.

As for the three cornerbacks, their absence could be game changers down the stretch. As for this week, Torrey Smith/Anquan Boldin and Rishard Mathews would get bumps should Peterson and Revis sit. Davis’ absence would greatly boost Mike Evans this week.

Anyway, this week we will concentrate solely on Sunday and Monday games. Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

Also, if you haven’t been following me here or in my CFB Power 5, my wife and I will with our newborn baby girl this week, so Week 12’s Vegas article is going to be short and sweet – not a lot of narrative, except Buying and Selling. Good luck everyone!

Week 11Opening O/UOpening SpreadOpening MLClosing O/UClosing SpreadClosing MLProjected ScoreFinal ScoreGrade
Denver at Chicago43-3 – Den-130 – Den41.5-2.5 – Den-130 – Den22 – 19.5 – Den17 – 15 – Den2 pts. – D
Dallas at Miami46.5-1 – Mia-125 – Mia45.5-2.5 – Dal-130 – Dal24 – 21.5 – Dal24 – 14 – Dal3 pts. – C
Oakland at Detroit48.5Even-125 – Oak50-1 – Oak-125 – Oak26 – 24 – Oak18 – 13 – Det1 pt. – F
Indianapolis at Atlanta46-4 – Atl-260 – Atl47.5-3.5 – Atl-200 – Atl25.5 – 22 – Atl24 – 21 – Ind2 pts. – D
St. Louis at Baltimore42.5Even-125 – Bal41.5-3 – Bal-160 – Bal22.25 – 19.25 – Bal16 – 13 – Bal6 pts. – B
Washington at Carolina46-7.5 – Car-330 – Car44-7 – Car-310 – Car25.5 – 18.5 – Car44 – 16 – Car1 pt. – F
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia45.5-7 – Phi-240 – Phi45-6.5 – Phi-300 – Phi25.75 – 19.25 – Phi45 – 17 – TB-1 pt. – F
NY Jets at Houston41-2.5 – NYJ-140 – NYJ40-4 – NYJ-200 – NYJ22 – 18 – NYJ24 – 17 – Hou3 pts. – C
Kansas City at San Diego46-3 – KC-160 – KC45.5-3 – KC-170 – KC24.25 – 21.25 – KC33 – 3 – KC3 pts. – C
Green Bay at Minnesota45Even-125 – GB45-1 – Min-120 – Min23 – 22 – Min30 – 13 – GB4 pts. – B
San Francisco at Seattle41.5-10 – Sea-763 – Sea40-14 – Sea-1000 – Sea27 – 13 – Sea29 – 13 – Sea6 pts. – B
Cincinnatti at Arizona48-2.5 – Ari-185 – Ari48-4 – Ari-200 – Ari26 – 22 – Ari37 – 34 – Ari5 pts. – B
Buffalo at New England49.5-7.5 – NE-400 – NE47.5-7 – NE-350 – NE27.25 – 20.25 – NE20 – 13 – NE2 pts. – D

Vegas had an even worse week this week than last, but the Panthers and Pats continue to be undefeated. Some of the top money lines are under performing, so hopefully that’s a trend we can buck soon.

Also, the Cowboys are going to take down the Panthers Thanksgiving Day. Mark that down.

ScaleWeek 11 GradesTotal Grades
1 or less – FA – 0A – 5
2 – DB – 4B – 47
3 – CC – 3C – 28
4-6 – BD – 3D – 37
7-8 – AF – 3F – 30

Above are the Week 11 grades and below is a look at Week 12 with a quick look at what I am buying and selling.

Week 12Opening O/UOpening SpreadOpening ML
Baltimore at Cleveland41.5Even-135 – Cle
New England at Denver47.5-5.5 – NE-170 – NE
Pittsburgh at Seattle44-3.5 – Sea-245 – Sea
Arizona at San Francisco44.5-9.5 – Ari-578 – Ari
Buffalo at Kansas City41-3.5 – KC N/A
New Orleans at Houston49-3 – Hou-150 – Hou
Oakland at Tennessee45-2 – Oak-135 – Oak
NY Giants at Washington47-1.5 – NYG-130 – NYG
San Diego at Jacksonville48.5-4.5 – Jax-225 – Jax
Miami at NY Jets43.5-4.5 – NYJ-200 – NYJ
St. Louis at Cincinnati42-7.5 – Cin-450 – Cin
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis47-3 – Ind-150 – Ind
Minnesota at Atlanta44-2.5 – Atl-145 – Atl

BUYING

T.J. Yeldon vs. San Diego – Vegas has a high-point total for this game, and rightfully so. The Jags defense is suspect and while Philip Rivers doesn’t have Keenan Allen, he still has two running backs and a very capable tight end. The Chargers are down and out, so I worry they are not going to try as hard as normal. Rivers isn’t a quitter, but the Chargers really have nothing to play for. That’s great for Yeldon, who faces the worst rush defense in the league. He’s a 3-down back that should see plenty of work as I expect the Jags to have the lead for most of this game.

Buffalo/Kansas City O/U – The Chiefs have come alive defensively of late. They have allowed 18 or less points in 6 straight games and face a Bills squad that could be without starting QB Tyrod Taylor. The Chiefs still don’t have a quick-striking offense and use the run game to wear down defenses. These two forces combine for a low-scoring affair in my book. Chiefs should come away victorious and continue their resurgence in the AFC West.

NY Giants Point Total – The NFC East is a mess, but both the Redskins and Giants have legit chances to win the division. The Giants defense is going to be as healthy as its been all year in this contest, so that could severely limit the Redskins offense. As for the Giants’ offense, insert Odell Beckham, Jr. He’s my top receiver play of the week against a Redskins’ secondary that is healthy again, but a wreck. The Giants offense is healthy and without a solid run game, Manning and his receivers will see a heavy dose of looks through the air.

SELLING

Saints/Texans O/U – The Texans defense has held opponents to 20 points or less in 4 out of their last 5 games. Since a 44-point shellacking by Miami four weeks ago, the Texans have allowed point totals of 6, 6, and 17. The Saints were red hot, but struggled on the road to the Redskins a couple of weeks ago. While I think DeAndre Hopkins goes off, I think the Texans can withstand a Saints offense that has many flaws, including a lack of a downfield threat. The Texans are playing well and are in the thick of the AFC South. I fully expect the Texans, despite limitations at QB and RB, to play the Saints tough, especially with two solid cornerbacks in the secondary that could slow down Cooks and Snead. Watt and company can load the box to take care of Ingram and put lots of pressure on Brees.

Cardinals Spread – The 49ers are not a good football team, but for some reason, they have played exceptionally well at home. I am going to roll with that trend this week as they are 9.5-point underdogs this week against the Cards. The 49ers have not allowed more than 20 points at home. Point totals this year: Vikings – 3, Packers – 17, Baltimore and Seattle – 20 and Atlanta 16. The Cardinals could easily buck this trend and I wouldn’t be shocked, but after a huge win on Sunday night against the Bengals, also if they are without Patrick Peterson, I could see them keeping the Cards in check this week.

Indianapolis and Falcons as favorites – I am going out on a limb in this one, but I can’t buy the Colts with Matt Hasselbeck at QB nor can I buy the Falcons at home. The Bucs are coming alive of late and put up monster numbers against the Eagles. This could be a let down week, but they could be facing a defense that can’t stop the run and a secondary without Vontae Davis. Vincent Jackson, albeit aging, really opened things up for this offense with his return to the lineup. If Sefarian-Jenkins returns, I could see this offense really clicking this week. The Colts have allowed less than 20 points in a game just once and the Bucs are showing signs of offensive promise with a rookie QB. As for Atlanta, what a letdown they have had in the middle part of the season. Now they could be without Devonta Freeman, who is clearly the better running back over Tevin Coleman. Matt Ryan is a one-trick pony with Julio Jones as the only viable receiving option in that offense. Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson are unwhelming receivers, and the Vikings defense has allowed no more than 23 points in a game other than one time, and that was last week against a pissed off Packers club. The Vikes are legit and the Falcons are reeling. Look for this one to feature lots of Adrian Peterson (especially if Bridgewater doesn’t play), meaning the clock is going to be running and that will limit possessions for both teams.

Week 11Overall
O vs. U – 5-8O vs. U – 72-70-4
Favorite vs. Underdog – 8-5Favorite vs. Underdog – 87-56
Favorite Wins with <120 Money Line – 0-0Team Wins with <120 Money Line – 5-0
Favorite Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 2-2Team Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 9-11
Favorite Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 1-0Team Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 14-7
Favorite Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 1-0Team Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 11-8
Favorite Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 1-2Team Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 26-15
Favorite Wins with 300+ Money Line – 2-1Team Wins with 300+ Money Line – 25-11
Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 4-3Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 45-27
Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 2-3Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 23-26
Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 1-0Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 14-4
High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Pts. – 1-2High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Points – 16-20
Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 0-2Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 6-12
Divisional Games O vs. U – 1-3Divisional Games O vs. U – 23-20-1
Division O/U 50+ O vs. U – 0-0Division O/U 48+ O vs. U – 6-6
Division O/U 42-49.5 O vs. U – 1-3Division O/U 42-47.5 O vs. U – 17-11-1
Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 0-0Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 2-1

Above is the weekly records check for various categories. Favorites got back on track this week after winning just 3 games in Week 10. High over O/U projections continue to underwhelm. Overall, it was a low-scoring fantasy week. Keep banking on high moneylines of -300 or more and games where spreads stay constant from beginning of the week to the end, favorites in those games are doing really well.

TeamVegas Records Through Week 11Actual Records Through Week 11
Atlanta Falcons7 – 36 – 4
Arizona Cardinals9 – 18 – 2
Baltimore Ravens8 – 22 – 8
Buffalo Bills3 – 5 – 15 – 4
Carolina Panthers8 – 210 – 0
Chicago Bears0 – 104 – 6
Cincinnati Bengals7 – 2 – 18 – 2
Cleveland Browns2 – 8 (Bye)2 – 8 (Bye)
Dallas Cowboys4 – 63 – 7
Denver Broncos8 – 28 – 2
Detroit Lions2 – 83 – 7
Green Bay Packers9 – 17 – 3
Houston Texans4 – 65 – 5
Indianapolis Colts6 – 45 – 5
Jacksonville Jaguars1 – 94 – 6
Kansas City Chiefs5 – 55 – 5
Miami Dolphins4 – 65 – 5
Minnesota Vikings7 – 37 – 3
New England Patriots9 – 09 – 0
New Orleans Saints5 – 5 (Bye)4 – 6 (Bye)
New York Giants5 – 5 (Bye)5 – 5 (Bye)
New York Jets8 – 25 – 5
Oakland Raiders3 – 74 – 5
Philadelphia Eagles8 – 24 – 6
Pittsburgh Steelers3 – 6 – 1 (Bye)7 – 3 (Bye)
San Diego Chargers5 – 52 – 8
San Francisco 49ers1 – 93 – 7
Seattle Seahawks8 – 24 – 6
St. Louis Rams6 – 45 – 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2 – 85 – 5
Tennessee Titans2 – 7 – 12 – 8
Washington Redskins1 – 94 – 6

Lastly, our weekly check on Vegas team records and actual team records. Things are starting to even out and the Ravens actually won a game they were favored in! Can the Jags make it two wins in a row as the favorite? We will see next week!

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