“Although we’ve come, to the end of the road…”
A line from a classic Boyz II Men break-up anthem, but it applies to our last “Vegas” write-up of the 2015 season.
A lot went down during the 2015 NFL season….running backs went down left and right, Peyton Manning was replaced by Brock Osweiler then returned to lead his team to championship week, the Panthers ALMOSt went 16-0, Tony Romo broke his collarbone…twice, Johnny Manziel is still Johnny Manziel (doesn’t get to use the Football nickname anymore in my book), and the birth of my daughter, the greatest gift of all.
As I digress, I hope you have found this article a useful tool/weapon to improve your DFS rosterization. Those that have read this and/or utilized the data, please leave comments about what you like, didn’t like, what trends you would like to see tracked next year, etc. Feedback is necessary to better improve the product on the field.
This article isn’t going to be very lengthy as we won’t really be breaking down this weekend’s Super Bowl semi-final games. It’s a quick review of last week and done-ski.
Good luck this weekend, our final DFS football weekend (unless sites group the Pro Bowl with the Super Bowl like last year). Enjoy all that you can because the break is long and slow moving to the start of the 2016 season.
Most of all, enjoy what is likely the last Brady vs. Peyton matchup. While a shell of his former self, Peyton Manning was greatness for the NFL. I doubt he returns, but it sure would be nice to see him ride off into the sunset.
And quickly, here are my picks for the rest of the postseason
Patriots vs. Cardinals in Super Bowl L
|Divisional Round||Opening O/U||Opening Spread||Opening ML||Closing O/U||Closing Spread||Closing ML||Projected Score||Final Score||Grade|
|Kansas City at New England||44.5||-5 – NE||-240 – NE||44.5||-6 – NE||-265 – NE||25.25 – 19.25 – NE||27 – 20 – NE||6 pts. – B|
|Green Bay at Arizona||48.5||-7 – Ari||-340 – Ari||49||-7 – Ari||-300 – Ari||28 – 21 – Ari||26 – 20 – Ari||6 pts. – B|
|Seattle at Carolina||43.5||-1.5 – Car||-147 – Car||41.5||-2.5 – Car||-145 – Car||22 – 19.5 – Car||31 – 24 – Car||1 pt. – F|
|Pittsburgh at Denver||40.5||-2.5 – Den||-220 – Den||41||-7 – Den||-300 – Den||24 – 17 – Den||23 – 16 – Den||7 pts. – A|
Vegas slayed the Divisional Round. 1 A, 2 Bs and 1 F. I felt that Carolina/Seattle game was projected with a very low total, and it almost met the under, but Carolina allowed Seattle to rally.
As for the rest, Denver and New England came away with wins (thanks -300+ money line, how great of a tool you are!).
But the best action of the weekend came in the Arizona/Green Bay game. One of the best games of the season with one of the wildest finishes I’ve ever seen. Green Bay crawls back thanks to an Aaron Rodgers second discount double-check hail mary to save a costly loss only for Larry Fitzgerald to go almost Beast Mode in overtime as the Cardinals edged out the win.
I didn’t like Carson Palmer’s poise in that game. He looked nervous and made lots of errant passes. I came to the conclusion that it was nerves and pressure. He hasn’t had but 2 playoff appearances, and only one of those was a full game. He came in with 0 playoff wins as a No. 1 overall pick. That’s pressure to overcome.
Now he has that win behind him so I expect Palmer to be back to his old self this week, despite the road contest against the Panthers. I might not be giving the Panthers as much credit as I should, but I just don’t feel they matchup well with the Cardinals defense.
Anyway, I am looking forward to this week in the NFL playoffs (though the Royal Rumble might get in the way of Sunday’s game for me!).
|Scale||Divisional Grades||Total Grades|
|1 or less – F||A – 1||A – 11|
|2 – D||B – 2||B – 80|
|3 – C||C – 0||C – 45|
|4-6 – B||D – 0||D – 51|
|7-8 – A||F – 1||F – 58|
Above you see our grades for last week and for the year. A tough one at times for Vegas, but lots of Bs and Cs, which are very solid performances.
|O vs. U – 2-2||O vs. U – 113-124-5|
|Favorite vs. Underdog – 4-0||Favorite vs. Underdog – 150-88-1|
|Favorite Wins with <120 Money Line – 0-0||Team Wins with <120 Money Line – 6-1|
|Favorite Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 0-0||Team Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 16-21|
|Favorite Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 1-0||Team Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 23-12|
|Favorite Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 0-0||Team Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 14-11|
|Favorite Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 1-0||Team Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 48-23|
|Favorite Wins with 300+ Money Line – 2-0||Team Wins with 300+ Money Line – 44-16|
|Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 3-0||Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 84-42|
|Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 0-0||Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 35-38|
|Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 1-0||Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 23-8|
|High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Pts. – 0-1||High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Points – 26-28|
|Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 1-1||Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 16-20|
Something to keep an eye on next year using the data above – favorites with -300+ money lines (and -200+) and spreads that end the same as they opened. The favorites killed in those categories this season. I hope that continues in 2016.
The most disappointing about the data above is how often projected high scoring games faltered. You were flipping a coin trying to pick which games would meet expectations or fall well short. I guess these odds and lines have their flaws at times.
|Championship Round||Opening O/U||Opening Spread||Opening ML|
|New England at Denver||45||-2.5 – NE||-170 – NE|
|Arizona at Carolina||48||-4 – Car||-170 – Car|
Lastly, I did provide a quick look into this week’s action. Games this season with moneylines in the -170 range were just a shade over 50 percent in favor of the favorite. Perhaps that means one of these favorites are going down?
We shall see.
TTFN, Overlay universe.