This article is specifically geared towards GPPs; you should not be using these recommendations in cash games. We’re trying to identify targets that, while risky, could put us over the top in a large field GPP. In the first half, I’m going to use the Expert Consensus to identify some golfers that might end up being overowned and give you potentially lower-owned alternatives with similar price and upside (slants). In the second half, I’m going to suggest some golfers with reasonable upside that are cheap and/or should go low-owned (sleepers).
The Expert Consensus did a great job identifying targets with a high likelihood of success. Honestly, I can’t recommended deviating too much from that list in good faith. No one cracked the 50% threshold, and the percentages were fairly evenly distributed between about 15 guys. It doesn’t look like anyone should go terribly overowned this week. That said, I’m still going to give you a couple of ways to zig where others are zagging.
#1. Fade the guys who finished at the top last week.
The public will be drawn to the names they saw at the top of the leaderboard last week. I know when I started in fantasy golf, the first two things I would check were last week’s results and last year’s results for the given tournament. Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Na, Jason Bohn, and Patrick Rodgers are all great plays this week, but recency bias will almost certainly bump their ownership levels up. If you’re looking to differentiate, try to avoid using these guys.
#2. Target golfers with with good stats/bad course history or no course history at all.
Like I mentioned above, I used to start with last week and last year’s results. I would imagine that strategy is fairly common among casual players. We have so much course history at our disposal this week (and so many guys with great track records); it’s only natural that players will gravitate towards those golfers. You have to remember that this is golf, and anything can happen week-to-week. Take a look at the guys with bad course history (for whatever reason) and try to identify some golfers who could be in line for a breakout performance. Some names I’m considering in this regard include:
- Russell Henley $8,100
- Kevin Kisner $8,100
- Kevin Chappell $7,500
- Lucas Glover $7,200
- Rory Sabbatini $6,400
I think the better way to go, though, would be to target golfers with no course history at all. The Shriners is the second event of the 2015-16 PGA Tour season, so it’s a perfect time to get in on the ground floor of the recent Web.com graduates. For example, last week Smylie Kaufman was on the winning Drive The Green roster. I really like Patton Kizzire, Dawie Van Der Walt, and Michael Kim, and I wrote them up in my picks article if you’d like to read why. In terms of Web.com guys, I also like:
- Jamie Lovemark $7,000
- Harold Varner III $6,100
- D.H. Lee $5,900
- Henrik Norlander $5,700
There are also a few vets making their Shriners debut this week that I think could thrive in Vegas.
- Will Wilcox $8,200
- Keegan Bradley $8,800
- Jason Dufner $8,000
- Ollie Schniederjans $6,800 (I think he’s technically a rookie, but has experience)
This group of golfers may be unproven at TPC Summerlin, but they definitely have the games to succeed.
I’ve pretty much given all of my sleepers away at this point, but here they are again in review.
- Scott Piercy $9,700 – I think his price keeps his ownership down.
- Keegan Bradley $8,800 – First-timer, can go low, price should depress ownership.
- Russell Henley $8,100 – Not getting enough respect, had a rough 2014 Shriners, expect him to bounce back.
- Jason Dufner $8,000 – See: Keegan Bradley.
- Patton Kizzire $7,600 – Should go criminally underowned, and I think he has a big week.
- Spencer Levin $7,400 – Great course history, solid price.
- Lucas Glover $7,200 – The ultimate ball striker, back-to-back (albeit with weeks in between) top-20s.
- Jamie Lovemark $7,000 – The Dustin Johnson of the Web.com Tour in 2014.
- John Senden $6,800 – Solid course history, haven’t seen him mentioned once.
- Chad Campbell $6,400 – It’s “Back to the Future” week, after all.
- Ben Crane $6,100 – Human lottery ticket, “Golf Boy.”
- Dawie Van Der Walt – Web.com grad, great price.
- Michael Kim $5,800 – Web.com grad, my favorite punt.
- Wes Roach $5,200 – Web.com grad, played okay here last year, dirt cheap.