Good news, we’ve got a full field this week.  Welcome back, Friday cut sweats.  Bad news, it’s a less than stellar field.  Welcome back, insane variance.

The OHL Classic at Mayakoba will be played on the El Camaleon course; a 6,987-yard par 71.  Traditionally it takes a score of around -17 to win, and there are a number of former champions in the field including Charley Hoffman, Harris English, John Huh, Johnson Wagner, Cameron Beckman, Mark Wilson, and Fred Funk (Brian Gay is actually the only previous winner not playing this week).  The OHL Classic has been running since 2007, so there’s plenty of course history data at our disposal.

2014 OHL Classic at Mayakoba
1. Charley Hoffman -17
2. Shawn Stefani -16
T-3. Danny Lee -15
T-3. Andres Gonzales -15
5. Jerry Kelly -14
6. Brice Garnett -13
T-7. Tony Finau -12
T-7. Jason Bohn -12
T-9. Will MacKenzie -11
T-9. Blayne Barber -11
T-9. Carlos Ortiz -11
T-9. Oscar Fraustro -11
T-9. Nicholas Thompson -11
T-9. Ken Duke -11
T-9. Fred Funk -11
Full Results

We’re reaching the point where we should start considering 2015-16 season statistics, but sample sizes are still a little small.  It’s probably best to use both 14-15 and 15-16 in your analysis.  I’m going to focus a little more on 15-16, as it’s more indicative of current form, but I’m going to keep (my opinion of) true talent in mind.

Here’s what I’m targeting this week:

  • Stroke Differential
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • GIR
  • Par 5 Scoring Average
  • Course History
  • Current Form

PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!

Two things.  First, as I mentioned earlier, the sample size for 15-16 statistics is still a little small and we’re quite a ways removed from the 14-15 season, so I’m not going to be implementing the field ranks yet.  Second, the high-priced golfers for this tournament are relatively vulnerable when compared to a normal week.  Don’t be afraid to leave salary on the table, and don’t feel like you have to build around a $10k player.

Jason Bohn $10,300 (25-1)

If you’re going to spend up for one guy, it should be Bohn.  He’s reliable, and it really feels like he’s on the verge of a win.  He’s played here three times, and averaged just under 99 points per start.  Not the longest off the tee, but he’s a great ball striker with a very good birdie rate.

Harris English $10,200 (22-1)

It’s not surprising he won here in 2013.  English has loads of talent, but he tends shrink a little under the big lights.  He’s the type of guy you want to target in these off brand events.  Harry’s made two OHL starts and averaged 104.5 points per.

Brendan Steele $9,900 (23-1)

I really like Steele this week.  He finished T-17 at Frys and T-3 two weeks ago at CIMB.  He’s phenomenal tee-to-green and makes a ton of birdies.  Someone you can build lineups around.

Will Wilcox $9,400 (35-1)

At this point you already know.  Wilcox was #2 in all-around ranking last season (sandwiched in between Jason Day and Jordan Spieth).  Not bad.  He’s one of the best golfers in the field, and I think he’s a little under-priced.

Keegan Bradley $9,100 (45-1)

A tee-to-green monster.  There’s a disconnect between his price and level of talent.  Just scroll through the names… are there really 12 better golfers than Bradley in this field?  I don’t think so.  Maybe he can get it going against a soft field.

Johnson Wagner $8,400 (60-1)

Another former champ.  He had a nice week at Sanderson Farms; posting four consecutive 69s and finishing T-15.  Form + course history = money.

Jason Dufner $8,200 (60-1)

Much like Keegan, his price is too good to ignore.  Let’s play a little game of “One of These Things is Not Like the Other.”

Alex Cejka $8,400
Stewart Cink $8,300
Rory Sabbatini $8,200
Jason Dufner $8,200
Camilo Villegas $8,100
Roberto Castro $8,100

Maybe it’s a trap?  Maybe not.  Dufner is a major champion (and less removed from his prime than Cink).  I’ll bet on pedigree and take my chances.

Smylie Kaufman $7,900 (60-1)

Smylie experienced a bit of a hangover at Sanderson Farms (T-54), but he’s 3/3 in cuts made this season including a win and another top-10 finish.  You can find his name near the top of every 15-16 statistical category.  I expect a bounce back performance for Kaufman.

Peter Malnati $7,400 (70-1)

I am always leery of taking guys the week after they get their first win (see: Justin Thomas, Smylie, etc.).  That said, his price is fantastic, and he scored 86.5 points here last year.  I’m willing to take a shot.

Colt Knost $7,400 (80-1)

Knost is a poor man’s Jason Bohn.  Accurate, good ball striker, and makes a decent amount of birdies.  He’s played here five times and averaged nearly 75 points per.  Given his price, that’s pretty solid.

That’ll do it.  Good luck this week!

oreo

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