The Zurich Classic comes to us from TPC Louisiana in Avondale, LA.  It’s a 7,425-yard par 72 designed by Pete Dye.  Winning scores tend to hover around 20 under par.

2015 Zurich Classic
1. Justin Rose -22
2. Cameron Tringale -21
3. Boo Weekley -20
T-4. Jim Herman -19
T-4. Jason Day -19
T-6. David Hearn -18
T-6. Daniel Berger -18
T-8. Blayne Barber -17
T-8. Chesson Hadley -17
T-8. Chad Campbell -17
T-8. Whee Kim -17
Full Results

I’m starting to rely more on the work done by FantasyGolfMetrics.com.  I have ditched the raw numbers and now go with their r-data, which accounts for field strength.  They believe these are the stats you should be focusing on this week:

TARGET STATS

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Birdie Rate
  • Proximity from 175-200 Yards
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Driving Distance

TPC Louisiana is one of the easier PGA Tour tracks, so it should come as no surprise that the target stats are a little “chalky.”  Don’t overthink it, just go with the best golfers.  It’s not a week to be searching for specialists.

PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!

Jason Day $12500

The world’s #1 golfer at a reasonable price on a course he should be able to ravage.  Take a look at that $10k range, then try to tell me you’d rather spend down with a straight face.  You can’t.

Rickie Fowler $11100

I’m sure some people will be scared off by his showing at The Masters, but it was just a bad week.  It happens.  A few more might not like his course history.  Even better.  And then there’s the whole “how will Rickie even be able to get out of bed after #sb2k16?”  What I’m trying to get at here is this is a prime opportunity to get Rickie Fowler in a junk field at a reasonable price and (potentially) low ownership.

Justin Rose $11800

Justin Rose is in that premium, chalky sweet spot.  He’s a big name, the defending champion, and not the biggest price on the board.  “Jason Day?  Eh… I can drop down to Rose and save $700.”  Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fine play (and I’ll be using him), but Day is the better option.

Daniel Berger $10100

The price is a little sketchy, but he played well here last year and is the type of player you want to target in GPPs.  He’s top-20 in SGT2G, excellent from 175-200 yards, and scores well on par 5s.

Marc Leishman $9100

Yes, I’m going to keep going back to this well.  He’s a better golfer than $9100 in this field.  Leishman ranks 4th in SGT2G and 35th in SGP; that’s a pretty solid combo.  Really improved in his second Zurich start; finishing in 28th and posting 92 DK points.

Patton Kizzire $8200

Kizzire’s kryptonite is a course that requires accuracy off the tee.  Good news, TPC Louisiana is not one of those courses.  He really excels around the greens.  If he can keep the ball in play, he can go low.

Byeong-Hun An $8300

Assuming he has fully recovered from his recent injury, An makes for a great play.  Hasn’t been in the best of form, but just too cheap.  Long-hitter that should score well on par 5s.  Currently 14th in the European Tour’s Race to Dubai.

Danny Lee $8500

Everyone’s favorite (unless you’re a horrible garbage person).  Not in the best of form, but Lee has back-to-back top-25 finishes in Louisiana.  This is more of a price play.

Charles Howell III $8700

Nice combination of form, course history, and price.  Howell has averaged roughly 17 DK points above field average in his seven Zurich starts.  Ranks near the top of the field at 1.0 SG: Total.

Gary Woodland $8000

One of my favorite sleepers.  Despite some poor course history, Woodland has the type of game that should thrive in Louisiana.  He’s long, gains almost a full stroke on the field tee-to-green, and is #1 in terms of adjusted par 5 scoring.  Oh, and he’s a birdie-making machine.  Sign me up.

Jamie Donaldson $7600

Donaldson is another guy whose course history might throw people off his scent (MC in his lone Zurich start).  Over the past three months, Jamie’s made five starts on the PGA Tour and finished 54th, 26th, 35th, 19th, and 21st.  When you hang around that frequently, eventually you’re going to break through.

Morgan Hoffmann $6700

The other, other Hoff is 3/3 at TPC Louisiana and hasn’t finished lower than 36th.  In two of those starts, he was top-5 through Friday.  He’s coming off a nice showing at the Heritage and could be in for a big week at a course he clearly likes.

David Hearn $7500

When you gloss over his stats nothing really jumps out at you, but he gets it done at this course.  Hearn’s 5/5 in cuts made with three top-25s and a 6th place finish to his credit.  He’s also coming off a 13th last week in Texas.  Form + course history = dollar signs.

Jhonattan Vegas $7100

Vegas is basically Woodland-lite with some better course history.  I like Woodland at $8k, so of course I’m in on Vegas at $7100.

Jason Bohn $6700

I don’t know what to think here.  He’s admitted his game isn’t where it needs to be, but he made the cut at the Heritage in his first event back.  He’s a former champion at a great price.  I’ll probably take some fliers with him.

Luke List $7400

Another golfer in the Woodland/Vegas mold, and he’s playing some solid golf (four straight top-40s).  He’s played Zurich once before and finished 31st.

Lucas Glover $7200

Glover has seven Zurich starts and three top-20s.  The putter is always the issue with Luke, but at -0.358 SGP, this has been his best year with the flat stick since 2012 (and over a full stroke better than ’14 and ’15).  Look for him to turn in an old school Glover performance.

Alex Cejka $6300

Decent stats and three career top-21 finishes at Zurich.  He’s also been playing some surprisingly fantastic golf: 13th @ WMO, 41st @ AT&T, 21st @ Honda, and 11th @ PRO.  Seems like the obvious go-to play in this price range.

oreo

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