The RSM Classic (previously known as The McGladrey Classic) comes to us from the Sea Island Resort in Georgia.  There are two courses in play here: Seaside and Plantation.  On Thursday half the field will play Seaside while the other half plays Plantation, they’ll switch it up on Friday, and everyone who makes the cut will finish up the weekend back on the Seaside Course.

2014 McGladrey Classic
1. Robert Streb -14 (won in three-way playoff)
T-2. Will MacKenzie -14
T-2. Brendon de Jonge -14
T-4. Kevin Kisner -12
T-4. Ken Duke -12
T-4. Russell Henley -12
T-8. Kevin Chappell -11
T-8. Mark Wilson -11
T-8. Fabian Gomez -11
T-8. Andrew Svoboda -11
Full Results

The Seaside Course is a 7,005-yard par 70, whereas the Plantation Course is a 7,058-yard par 72.  In the past, the tournament was played exclusively on the Seaside Course.  So maybe include a little splash of par 5 performance?  I’m going to largely ignore the Plantation, as 3/4 of the rounds will be played on Seaside.

This tournament has been running since 2010, so we have a fair amount of course history data at our disposal.  Traditionally, these stats have been indicators of future success:

  • Stroke Differential
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Par 3 Scoring Average
  • Par 4 Scoring Average
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards
  • Scrambling

I will also be incorporating course history and current form data into my selections.  So here we go…

PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!  PICKS!

This is the first week I’ll be using the 2015-16 stats for rank in field purposes.  Just know we’re dealing with a relatively small sample size, so the guys at the top aren’t necessarily great and the guys at the bottom aren’t necessarily bad.

***Bill Haas and Chris Kirk don’t have enough rounds in 2015-16 to qualify for statistical rankings, so I will be using their 2014-15 numbers.

Kevin Kisner $10,400 (23-1)

Kisner has been playing some solid golf of late.  He finished solo 2nd at the WGC HSBC, he’s 3/3 in cuts made in 2015-16, and he’s averaged 93.2 DK pts per start so far this season.  He’s from the area (born in SC, attended UGA) and my pick to win.

  • Stroke Differential: 11th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 50th
  • Birdie or Better %: 5th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 27th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 5th
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 78th
  • Scrambling: 43rd
  • Course History: 67.4 DK pts per, 4 starts
  • Recent Form: 69.5 DK pts per, 8 starts

Bill Haas $10,100 (50-1)

Haas has played this tournament twice; finishing T-22 in 2014 and solo 2nd in 2010.  He hasn’t played since the Presidents Cup, so rust is a possibility.  I’m leaning on his track record at this course.

*Ranks are from 2014-15 and are relative to the entire Tour, not just golfers in the RSM field.

  • Stroke Differential: 52nd
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 149th
  • Birdie or Better %: 140th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 34th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 50th
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 155th
  • Scrambling: 31st
  • Course History: 91.0 DK pts per, 2 starts
  • Recent Form: 64.5 DK pts per, 6 starts

Russell Henley $10,000 (30-1)

Another Georgia Bulldog.  Henley finished 10th at the Shriners last month, and he’s been excelling in areas I’m targeting this week.  He’s an elite putter who excels on par 4s.  His scrambling numbers were disappointing last season (especially considering his putting prowess), but he’s been good so far this year.  I prefer Kisner in this price range, but Henley should definitely be in contention.

  • Stroke Differential: 10th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 23rd
  • Birdie or Better %: 50th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 75th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 3rd
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 35th
  • Scrambling: 19th
  • Course History: 72.5 DK pts per, 2 starts
  • Recent Form: 69.8 DK pts per, 6 starts

Patton Kizzire $9,500 (35-1)

Kizzire has been one of the stars of the 2015-16 season thus far.  He’s 3/3 in cuts made and has two top-4 finishes to his credit.  As you might imagine, his stats look very good across the board.  He’s a top-end talent (playing red hot golf) at a little bit of a price break.

  • Stroke Differential: 5th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 5th
  • Birdie or Better %: 7th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 6th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 13th
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 89th
  • Scrambling: 34th
  • Course History: 57.5 DK pts per, 1 start
  • Recent Form: 99.5 DK pts per, 3 starts

Robert Streb $8,700 (45-1)

On one hand, Streb has been playing some skunky golf of late.  On the other, you can get the defending champion for only $8,700.  Even though he’s been a little off, I expect high to be very popular (name + course history).  There’s merit to fading him; but if he fits into your lineup, I wouldn’t hesitate to use him.

  • Stroke Differential: 84th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 112th
  • Birdie or Better %: 41st
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 95th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 91st
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 5th
  • Scrambling: 104th
  • Course History: 127.0 DK pts per, 1 start
  • Recent Form: 67 DK pts per, 8 starts

Brendon de Jonge $8,700 (50-1)

Brendon 3/4 in cuts made this season (11 of 14 rounds under par) and has a great record at Sea Island (88.2 DK pts per start).  He’s been rolling it well, getting up and down, and performing well on both par 3s and 4s.  His price is a little bit higher than I’d prefer, but there is enough value in the field to spend up a little on de Jonge.  He also represents an excellent pivot off of Streb and might go a little under-owned.

  • Stroke Differential: 32nd
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 9th
  • Birdie or Better %: 70th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 45th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 26th
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 73rd
  • Scrambling: 23rd
  • Course History: 88.2 DK pts per, 5 starts
  • Recent Form: 55.9 DK pts per, 9 starts

Chris Kirk $8,500 (60-1)

Have you noticed a trend?  I like Georgia Bulldogs this week (though I refuse to use Brendon Todd).  Kirk has experienced a bit of a Presidents Cup hangover, but I think he can bounce back this week.  Last year, he was solid in most areas, but he was elite from 100-125 (a yardage block I’m targeting this week).  He’s averaged almost 80 DK pts per start in five tries at Sea Island and is reasonably priced.

*Ranks are from 2014-15 and are relative to the entire Tour, not just golfers in the RSM field.

  • Stroke Differential: 65th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 90th
  • Birdie or Better %: 60th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 60th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 95th
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 14th
  • Scrambling: 64th
  • Course History: 79.7 DK pts per, 5 starts
  • Recent Form: 48.9 DK pts per, 5 starts

Smylie Kaufman $7,500 (100-1)

Kaufman’s price has yet to truly adjust, and I plan on taking advantage of that.  The recent Web.com Tour graduate is 4/4 in cuts made so far this season; including a win and another top-10 finish.  He’s averaging more than 90 DK pts per start; a number which would equate to 12x value this week.  I’m going to ride this train until the wheels fall off.

  • Stroke Differential: 12th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 44th
  • Birdie or Better %: 9th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 56th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 35th
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 31st
  • Scrambling: 79th
  • Course History: N/A
  • Recent Form: 91.3 DK pts per, 4 starts

Fabian Gomez $7,500 (130-1)

How has Fabian fared so far in 2015-16?  T-17 at Frys and T-16 at Shriners.  And he’s averaged roughly 75 DK pts per start at Sea Island.  Gomez offers an excellent combination of form and course history at a really nice price.

  • Stroke Differential: 6th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 64th
  • Birdie or Better %: 22nd
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 25th
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 48th
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 30th
  • Scrambling: 16th
  • Course History: 74.5 DK pts per, 2 starts
  • Recent Form: 60.3 DK pts per, 6 starts

Alex Cejka $6,900 (140-1)

I’m sure he burned quite a few people last week with his MC coming on the heels of T-2 and T-17 finishes.  That’s great for us.  He’s top-10 in both stroke differential and birdie or better % for 2015-16 (probably the two most important stats for our purposes), yet he only costs $6,900.  I have no illusions of him sustaining this level of performance long-term, but it’s a case of strike while the iron’s hot.

  • Stroke Differential: 9th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 67th
  • Birdie or Better %: 4th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 2nd
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 41st
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 26th
  • Scrambling: 46th
  • Course History: 30.7 DK pts per, 3 starts
  • Recent Form: 59.3 DK pts per, 6 starts

Michael Putnam $6,400 (180-1)

Putnam is my favorite punt of the week.  He played pretty well (albeit against a weak field) at Sanderson Farms, and he made the cut here in 2013.  It doesn’t take a lot to pay off a $6,400 salary, and I’m hoping he can carry a little bit of momentum into Sea Island.

  • Stroke Differential: 8th
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 49th
  • Birdie or Better %: 29th
  • Par 3 Scoring Average: 71st
  • Par 4 Scoring Average: 7th
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards: 25th
  • Scrambling: 2nd
  • Course History: 62.5 DK pts per, 1 start
  • Recent Form: 57.5 DK pts per, 2 starts

Good luck this week!

oreo

 

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