Last week there were a lot of highly owned players and similar DFS lineups.  I think we are going to see a lot more diversity this week, as the numbers this week didn’t seem to suggest as many strong plays as they did last week. There are a lot more slightly increased opportunities (+) this week, as I only listed one opportunity for three (+’s) and even that one wasn’t a slam dunk (speaking of basketball be sure to check out our NBA coverage with Double Stuffed picks and Industry Consensus picks and grading).

Despite the potentially limited upside options this week, hopefully I was still able to uncover a few hidden gems to help you score big. So let’s get to the numbers and analysis…

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Miami Dolphins 65 44 67.7% 273 2.1 21 32.3% 102 0.5 21.0
New England Patriots 68 45 66.2% 302 2.3 23 33.8% 95 1.0 28.9

Look for the Dolphins to go to the air more than normal as they try to keep up with the Patriots offense. The passing game should see an increase in yardage and increased likelihood of at least two touchdown passes. The running game with decreased attempts will see a decrease in yardage and only a 50/50 chance for a rushing score. The Dolphins have passed over 76% from inside the 10 yard line this season.

The Patriots are expected to have their typical pass heavy play distribution. Look for the passing game to have their typical strong performance of around 300 passing yards and at least two touchdown passes. The running game will have similar yardage to their baseline with a decreased opportunity for any more than one score on the ground. The Patriots have passed almost 60% of the time in the red zone this season.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing game (+)

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (in London)

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Detroit Lions 66 46 69.7% 286 2.0 20 30.3% 75 0.4 20.5
Kansas City Chiefs 64 38 59.4% 260 1.4 26 40.6% 113 1.1 24.2

The Lions have a new offensive coordinator, so there could be a chance in offensive philosophy. However, until we have some data, I am going to stick with the Lions typical offensive tendencies. So, look for the Lions to continue to be a pass heavy team this week. The passing game should be effective with an increase in passing yards and likelihood for multiple touchdown passes. The running game should perform at their typical level for yardage and limited chance for a rushing touchdown. The Lions pass over 73% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.

Look for the Chiefs to go to the ground game slightly more than normal. The running game should see a very slight uptick in yardage with the extra carries and an increased likelihood of a rushing score. The Chiefs passing attack should also see a significant increase in passing yards and chance for more than one touchdown pass.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Matthew Stafford and the Lions passing game (Golden Tate) (++)
  • Alex Smith and the Chiefs passing game (Travis Kelce) (++)
  • Charcandrick West (+)

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Minnesota Vikings 63 33 52.4% 210 1.6 30 47.6% 127 0.7 22.2
Chicago Bears 65 37 56.9% 234 1.3 28 43.1% 123 0.6 19.7

Look for the Vikings to run their typical play distribution. The passing game should see their normal level of passing yards, but have an increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game should fall in line with their typical yardage with a slightly decreased opportunity for a rushing score. The Vikings have run the ball over 62% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.

The Bears are expected to run their typical pass-to-run ratio this week. The passing game should see a very slight increase in yardage and chance for a second touchdown pass. The running game should also see a very slight increase in yardage with their typical rushing touchdown opportunity. The Bears have passed on almost 60% of their plays in the red zone this season.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Teddy Bridgewater chance for 2nd TD pass (++)
  • Jay Cutler and the Bears passing game (Martellus Bennett) (+)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 63 35 55.6% 243 1.3 28 44.4% 113 1.2 20.7
Atlanta Falcons 67 36 53.7% 242 1.9 31 46.3% 131 1.3 26.9

The Buccaneers are projected to pass more often than usual. The increase in pass attempts will result in an increase in passing yardage, but they will still see a slight decrease in their opportunity for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will see a decrease in yardage against the Falcons run defense at home, but will see a significant increased likelihood of at least one touchdown on the ground.

Look for the Falcons to go to the ground game more than normal. The decrease in pass attempts will result in a decrease in passing yards, but the Falcons will see in increase in their chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will be effective with their typical rushing yardage and touchdown opportunity. The Falcons have run the ball over 55% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Doug Martin chance for at least one rushing TD (++)
  • Matt Ryan chance for 2nd TD pass (++)

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
New York Giants 65 40 61.5% 270 1.8 25 38.5% 107 0.7 23.4
New Orleans Saints 70 43 61.4% 319 1.4 27 38.6% 120 1.2 23.8

The Giants are projected to have their typical play distribution. Look for the Giants passing game to see an increase in yardage and likelihood for multiple touchdown passes. The running game should also see a slight increase in yardage and their opportunity for a rushing score. The Giants pass over 57% of the time in the red zone.

Look for the Saints to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should see an increase in passing yards and their opportunity for more than one touchdown pass. The running game should also see a slight uptick in yardage, but will have a decreased chance for more than one rushing touchdown.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Eli Manning and the Giants passing game (Ruben Randle and Larry Donnell) (+++)
  • Drew Brees and the Saints passing game (Brandin Cooks and Benjamin Watson) (++)

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
San Francisco 49ers 63 35 55.6% 206 0.8 28 44.4% 115 0.6 15.7
St. Louis Rams 61 32 52.5% 240 1.4 29 47.5% 145 1.0 21.8

Look for the 49ers to have their typical play distribution. The passing game should be slightly more effective than normal with a slight increase in passing yardage and their typical chance for one passing touchdown. The running game should fall in line with their typical level of production. The 49ers have passed on over 60% of their plays in the red zone this season.

The Rams are projected to continue to pound the ball on the ground this week. With a few extra attempts the running game should see an increase in yardage and likelihood for a rushing score. The passing game should also see a slight increase in yardage and opportunity for at least one touchdown pass. The Rams have run the ball 60% of their offensive plays inside the 10 yard line this season.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Todd Gurley (++)
  • Nick Foles and the Rams passing game (+)

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Arizona Cardinals 64 36 56.3% 258 1.8 28 43.8% 136 1.1 25.4
Cleveland Browns 65 40 61.5% 255 1.4 25 38.5% 101 0.4 19.8

Look for the Cardinals to have their typical play distribution. The passing game should fall in line with their typical level of passing yardage and opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should see a slight increase in yardage and likelihood of a rushing score.

This projection is assuming that Josh McCown will make the start this week. If he is unable to play than expect a significant decrease in passing attempts and production from the passing game, with a slight increase in rushing production. The Browns project to run their typical play distribution. The passing game should see a slight increase in passing yards and their chance for a second touchdown pass. The running game should produce their typical yardage with a limited chance for a rushing score. The Browns have passed on over 62% of their plays inside the 10 yard line.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Chris Johnson (+)
  • Josh McCown and the Browns passing game (+)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Cincinnati Bengals 66 35 53.0% 260 1.8 31 47.0% 124 0.9 23.9
Pittsburgh Steelers 63 36 57.1% 268 1.5 27 42.9% 140 0.8 22.5

The Bengals project to have their typical run heavy play distribution. The passing game should see a slight decrease in passing yardage and decreased chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game should produce their typical yardage, but with a decreased chance for more than one touchdown run. The Bengals have run the ball over 62% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.

With Ben Roethlisberger expected back this week, look for the Steelers to go to the air more than they have in recent weeks. The increase in pass attempts will result in an increase in passing yardage and their opportunity for a second touchdown pass. The running game should see a slight increase in yardage with their typical opportunity for a rushing touchdown.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing game (Antonio Brown) (+)

San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
San Diego Chargers 70 46 65.7% 310 2.0 24 34.3% 88 0.5 24.0
Baltimore Ravens 64 39 60.9% 271 1.8 25 39.1% 124 1.0 24.9

Look for the Chargers to continue their pass heavy play distribution this week. The passing game should see a very slight increase in yardage and their likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game will continue to produce similar results to their baseline with a slightly increased chance for a rushing score. The Chargers have passed over 70% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.

The Ravens project to run the ball slightly more often than usual. The increased rushing attempts will result in an increase in rushing yardage and likelihood of a rushing score. The passing game should also be effective with an increase in passing yards and their opportunity for multiple touchdown passes. The Ravens have passed over 60% of their plays in the red zone.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Philip Rivers and the Chargers passing game (+)
  • Justin Forsett (++)
  • Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing game (Steve Smith, and maybe Crockett Gillmore) (+)

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Houston Texans 67 43 64.2% 266 2.1 24 35.8% 97 0.6 21.1
Tennessee Titans 65 39 60.0% 242 1.9 26 40.0% 108 0.7 21.4

Look for the Texans to go to the air slight more often than usual with the injury to Arian Foster. The passing game should throw for their typical yardage, but have an increased likelihood for at least two touchdown passes. The running game should produce close to their typical yardage with a slightly reduced chance for a touchdown on the ground. The Texans have passed over 61% of the time in the red zone this season.

The Titans are unsure who will be their starting quarterback this week, Marcus Mariota or Zach Mettenberger. These projections are assuming that Mariota is the quarterback this week. The Titans project to have their typical play distribution. The passing game will see an increase in effectiveness with more yardage and an increased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game production will fall in line with their typical results. The Titans pass over 62% of the time in the red zone.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Brian Hoyer chance for multiple touchdown passes (+)
  • Marcus Mariota (if starting) and the Titans passing game (Kendall Wright) (++)

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
New York Jets 69 36 52.2% 233 1.6 33 47.8% 128 0.9 23.9
Oakland Raiders 64 40 62.5% 234 1.7 24 37.5% 92 0.5 20.2

The Jets are projected to have their typical run heavy play distribution. The passing game should see their typical level of yardage and opportunity for a second touchdown pass. The running game should also fall in line with their typical level of production. The Jets run over 51% of the time in the red zone.

The Raiders should have their typical play distribution. The passing game should see a small decrease in effectiveness with less yardage and a decreased chance for multiple touchdown passes. The running game should also see a very slight decrease in yardage with their typical 50/50 chance of a rushing score.

Increased Opportunities:

  • None, I am not big on the kickers or defenses either

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Seattle Seahawks 63 32 50.8% 218 1.1 31 49.2% 148 1.1 22.0
Dallas Cowboys 62 34 54.8% 214 1.0 28 45.2% 111 0.9 17.8

The Seahawks will have their typical run heavy play distribution. The running game will have their normal yardage, but will have an increased chance for at least one rushing touchdown. The passing game will see a slight increase in yardage with their typical opportunity for one touchdown pass. The Seahawks have started to run more in the red zone the last couple week.

The Cowboys project to run slightly more often than normal. As a result, the passing game will see a decrease in yardage and their opportunity for any more than one touchdown pass. The running game will also see a decrease in yardage and a slight decrease in their chance of a rushing touchdown.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Marshawn Lynch chance for at least one rushing TD (++)

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Green Bay Packers 64 34 53.1% 221 1.7 30 46.9% 131 0.7 22.7
Denver Broncos 67 43 64.2% 270 1.4 24 35.8% 104 0.5 19.9

The Packers project to have their typical play distribution. Look for the Packers passing game to be less effective than usual with a decrease in yardage and decreased opportunity for multiple touchdown passes. The running game should produce their typical level of yardage, but have a slightly increased chance for a rushing score.

The Broncos project to pass more often than usual. The passing game should see an increase in yardage and a slightly increased chance for a second touchdown pass. The running game projects to have a slight increase in rushing yards with their typical opportunity for a rushing score.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing game (Demaryius Thomas) (+)
  • Both Kickers (++)

Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Indianapolis Colts 68 47 69.1% 266 1.6 21 30.9% 93 0.6 19.5
Carolina Panthers 68 33 48.5% 226 1.5 35 51.5% 158 1.3 25.6

The Colts project to pass more frequently than usual this week. The increase in pass attempts will allow the Colts to pass for more yards than normal, but still have a decreased chance for a second touchdown pass. The running game should perform in line with their typical yardage, with a very slightly increased chance for a rushing score.

The Panthers will focus on the running game even more than usual this week. The passing game, despite limited attempts will see a slight increase in yardage and their opportunity for a second touchdown pass. The running game will also see a slight increase in rushing yardage and likelihood of at least one touchdown run. The Panthers run 64% of the time inside the 10.

Increase Opportunities:

  • Cam Newton (Gut call: Newton has a bigger day than the numbers suggest) (+)

Hopefully this gives you some potential fantasy football sleepers for the week, or gets you to think about some of your own favorite plays based on the data and analysis.

 

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