Week 11 proved to be more “normal” than Week 10 was, but it wouldn’t be the NFL if it still didn’t have a few unexpected twists and turns to keep us on our toes. Of course, that is what makes the NFL and daily fantasy football so much fun, the fact that anything can happen any week as we are all trying to predict a game and player performances to the best of our ability based on the knowledge and information we have.

Comparing actual passing yards to my projected passing yards, there were 16 teams (57%) that fell within 40 yards of their projection, which is the highest success rate this season. Looking at rushing yards, there were 15 teams (54%) where the actual yardage came within the 20 rushing yards threshold, which was one of the lowest success rates this season.

On the touchdown side, comparing passing touchdowns, I was able to hit the right number for 12 teams (43%), which was the best since Week 6. Meanwhile, looking at rushing touchdowns, I was also able to hit the right projection for 12 teams (43%), which was tied for the second-highest success rate this season only trailing last week’s 54% result. Overall, it was a solid week for the Offensive Tendency projections.

Here is the Week 11 review…

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Tennessee Titans 66 40 60.6% 258 1.7 26 39.4% 92 0.7 20.8
Jacksonville Jaguars 64 40 62.5% 268 2.2 24 37.5% 103 0.4 21.9
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Tennessee Titans 64 38 59.4% 231 0 26 40.6% 104 1 13
Jacksonville Jaguars 58 35 60.3% 242 1 23 39.7% 90 0 19

The Titans play distribution fell in line with their projection. The passing game had slightly less yardage than projected and failed to throw any touchdown passes. The running game produced slightly more yardage than projected with a rushing score. The Titans pass over 60% of the time in the red zone.

The Jaguars ran a similar play distribution to their projection. The passing game threw for slightly fewer yards than projected and only had one touchdown pass. The running game fell just short of their projected yardage and did not score a rushing touchdown as expected.  The Jaguars pass almost 60% of the time in the red zone.

Takeaways:

  • The Titans had their normal play distribution this week, after being more run oriented last week

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Marcus Mariota and the Titans passing game (Delanie Walker) (+)
    • Mariota had 231 passing yards, but no TD passes (although he did score one on the ground), Walker had a good game with 8 catches for 109 yards

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Washington Redskins 68 44 64.7% 253 1.4 24 35.3% 97 0.6 19.5
Carolina Panthers 64 30 46.9% 222 1.6 34 53.1% 161 1.0 25.0
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Washington Redskins 47 35 74.5% 207 1 12 25.5% -2 0 16
Carolina Panthers 75 36 48.0% 246 5 39 52.0% 142 0 44

The Redskins ran far fewer plays than expected with a more pass heavy play distribution. With fewer pass attempts, the passing game fell short of their projected yardage but did throw one touchdown pass. The running game was extremely ineffective with only 12 carries for -2 yards. The Redskins have passed on over 58% of their plays in the red zone this season.

The Panthers executed their typical run heavy play distribution as they were working with the lead. The passing game was very effective with slightly more passing yards than projected to go along with five touchdown passes. The running game was also effective falling just short of their projected rushing yards but failed to score. The Panthers uncharacteristically went to the air from inside the 10 yard line this week on 7 out of 10 plays.

Takeaways:

  • A big difference for the Redskins offensive playing against the Panthers defense compared to the Saints the week before.
  • Watch to see if Panthers pass more often inside the 10 yard line going forward

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Jonathan Stewart rushing yards (+)
    • Good game for Stewart with 102 rushing yards on 21 carries

Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Oakland Raiders 66 42 63.6% 280 2.2 24 36.4% 99 0.8 26.0
Detroit Lions 68 47 69.1% 320 2.0 21 30.9% 88 0.4 22.2
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Oakland Raiders 47 26 55.3% 169 0 21 44.7% 50 1 13
Detroit Lions 70 39 55.7% 282 0 31 44.3% 109 1 18

The Raiders ran significantly fewer plays than projected as they were having trouble sustaining long drives. The passing game had significantly fewer attempts than projected which resulted in substantially less passing yards than projected and no touchdown passes. The running game came close to their projected attempts, but fell far short of their projected yardage, however, they did manage to get a rushing score. The Raiders have an even 50/50 split between the run and pass when they are inside the 10 yard line.

The Lions ran the ball more often than expected. The passing game fell a little bit short of their projected passing yards and failed to throw for any touchdowns. The running game with an increased workload was able to outperform their projected rushing yards and get a rushing touchdown. The Lions ran the ball on 4 out of 6 plays inside the 10 yard line this week.

Takeaways:

  • First bad game for the Raiders passing attack in a while, watch to confirm it was just an off day
  • Lions defense has been strong two weeks in a row limiting the Packers and Raiders to a total of 29 points, watch to see if trend continues

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Latavius Murray chance for rushing TD (++)
    • Murray was able to find the end zone for a rushing TD
  • Matthew Stafford and the Lions passing game (Golden Tate) (++)
    • Stafford had 282 passing yards, but no TD passes (did score one on the ground), Tate led the Lions with 8 receptions to go along with 73 yards

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Dallas Cowboys 67 37 55.2% 272 1.6 30 44.8% 136 0.8 22.2
Miami Dolphins 63 41 65.1% 308 1.6 22 34.9% 107 0.9 21.8
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Dallas Cowboys 68 30 44.1% 227 2 38 55.9% 166 0 24
Miami Dolphins 41 27 65.9% 188 2 14 34.1% 70 0 14

The Cowboys focused on the running game more than anticipated this week. The passing game fell short of their projected yardage but did manage to get two touchdown passes. The running game was very effective with more yardage than projected but failed to score on the ground. The Cowboys have passed on over 65% of their plays in the red zone this season.

The Dolphins play distribution fell in line with their projection, however, they ran far fewer plays than expected. With the decreased plays, both the passing game and running game fell short of their projected yardage. The passing game did throw for two touchdowns as projected but did not get a score on the ground. The Dolphins have passed on over 70% of their plays from inside the 10 yard line.

Takeaways:

  • The Cowboys offense was improved with Tony Romo back under center

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Tony Romo and the Cowboys passing game (Dez Bryant) (++)
    • Decent game for Romo with 227 yards and 2 TD passes, Bryant had only 4 catches for 45 yards but did score
  • Darren McFadden (+)
    • Strong game for McFadden with 129 rushing yards on 29 carries
  • Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing game (Rishard Matthews) (+)
    • Only 24 pass attempts for Tannehill who only threw for 188 yards and 2 TDs, Matthews only caught one pass for 15 yards.
  • Lamar Miller chance for rushing TD (+)
    • No rushing TD for Miller and the Dolphins

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Indianapolis Colts 67 40 59.7% 252 1.6 27 40.3% 104 0.9 20.7
Atlanta Falcons 69 40 58.0% 305 1.7 29 42.0% 126 1.2 25.4
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Indianapolis Colts 61 34 55.7% 213 2 27 44.3% 74 0 24
Atlanta Falcons 71 47 66.2% 280 3 24 33.8% 100 0 21

With Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, the Colts ran the ball at an even slightly higher rate than expected. The passing game fell short of their projected passing yards but did throw two touchdown passes. The running game was not as effective as projected with less rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns. The Colts have passed on over 56% of their plays inside the 10 yard line this season.

The Falcons went to the air more often than expected, partially due to the loss of their starting running back Devonta Freeman in the first quarter. The passing game came close to their projected yardage and threw three touchdown passes. The running game fell short of their projected yardage and failed to score. The Falcons have run the ball over 51% of the time in the red zone this season.

Takeaways:

  • The Colts have been more run focused each of the last two weeks since their new offensive coordinator took over.
  • The Falcons shifted more focus to the passing game this week, which could continue if Freeman is out next week.

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Frank Gore chance for rushing TD (++)
    • No rushing TD for Gore and the Colts
  • Matt Ryan chance for 2nd TD passes (++)
    • Ryan ended up throwing 3 TD passes
  • Devonta Freeman (+)
    • Started out good with 43 yards on 3 carries, but left game with a concussion

St. Louis Rams @ Baltimore Ravens

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
St. Louis Rams 63 33 52.4% 210 1.2 30 47.6% 123 0.8 20.6
Baltimore Ravens 68 43 63.2% 278 1.3 25 36.8% 101 0.7 20.9
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
St. Louis Rams 56 27 48.2% 136 1 29 51.8% 82 1 13
Baltimore Ravens 73 45 61.6% 299 1 28 38.4% 96 0 16

The Rams focused on the running game this week as usual. The passing game was ineffective with only 136 passing yards with one touchdown pass. The running game was also not as effective as projected with fewer rushing yards but did score one rushing touchdown. The Rams have run over 66% of the time inside the 10 yard line.

The Ravens play distribution fell in line with their projection. The passing game finished with slightly more passing yards than projected with one touchdown pass. The running game was just short of their rushing yardage projection but failed to score on the ground. The Ravens have passed over 60% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.

Takeaways:

  • New quarterback, same run heavy play distribution for the Rams
  • What will the Ravens play distribution look like with a backup QB and RB starting next week

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Case Keenum and the Rams passing game (Tavon Austin) (+)
    • Keenum threw for only 136 yards and 1 TD, Austin only had 1 catch for 5 yards
  • I also like both Kickers in this one (++)
    • Could have been a better day for the kickers if they didn’t combine to miss 3 FGs, Justin Tucker (10 points), Greg Zuerlein (1 point)

New York Jets @ Houston Texans

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
New York Jets 66 37 56.1% 231 1.8 29 43.9% 120 0.8 22.4
Houston Texans 69 42 60.9% 249 1.7 27 39.1% 98 0.4 19.3
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
New York Jets 63 42 66.7% 216 1 21 33.3% 70 1 17
Houston Texans 73 36 49.3% 250 3 37 50.7% 123 0 24

The Jets passed more often than projected. Despite the increased pass attempts the passing game fell slightly short of their projected yardage and only threw for one touchdown. The running game finished with significantly less rushing yards than projected but did manage to get a rushing score. The Jets have run the ball over 52% of the time inside the 10 yard line.

Working with a lead, the Texans were able to pound the ball on the ground more than anticipated. Despite fewer attempts, the passing game was effective matching their projected passing yards and throwing for three touchdown passes. The running game was effective with the increased workload, resulting in more rushing yards than projected, but without a rushing touchdown. The Texans have passed on over 58% of their plays in the red zone this season.

Takeaways:

  • The Jets pass defense hasn’t been as good over the last few weeks
  • The Texans defense has been much improved the last 3 weeks

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • None, both defenses could be in play (+)
    • Texans defense had 3 sacks and forced 2 turnovers, Jets defense had 1 sack and forced 1 turnover

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66 36 54.5% 237 1.3 30 45.5% 127 0.6 19.7
Philadelphia Eagles 68 39 57.4% 266 1.8 29 42.6% 116 0.9 24.1
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 72 30 41.7% 246 5 42 58.3% 283 0 45
Philadelphia Eagles 72 44 61.1% 261 2 28 38.9% 136 0 17

Working with a big lead, the Bucs focused on the running game more often than anticipated. The passing game was very effective despite fewer attempts as they threw for slightly more yardage than projected and five touchdown passes. The running game was extremely productive with more than twice as many rushing yards than projected but failed to score a rushing touchdown. The Bucs pass over 57% of the time inside the 10 yard line.

The Eagles play distribution was close to the projection. The passing game production fell right in line with their projected yardage and touchdown passes. The running game produced slightly more yardage than projected but failed to score on the ground. The Eagles run the ball 59% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.

Takeaways:

  • With a huge day, the Bucs offense could be one to watch in the coming weeks
  • Monitor the Eagles defense to see if this becomes a trend or if they just had an off day

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Mark Sanchez chance for 2nd TD passes (++)
    • Sanchez did get 2 TD passes

Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Denver Broncos 62 37 59.7% 236 1.6 25 40.3% 107 0.6 20.3
Chicago Bears 66 36 54.5% 221 1.2 30 45.5% 116 0.9 20.4
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Denver Broncos 68 32 47.1% 250 2 36 52.9% 170 0 17
Chicago Bears 59 34 57.6% 265 0 25 42.4% 86 1 15

The Broncos were even more run-focused than expected this week. The passing game was still productive with their opportunities passing for slightly more yardage than projected to go along with two touchdown passes. The running game with increased carries produced significantly more yardage than projected but did not get a rushing touchdown. The Broncos have passed almost 60% of the time in the red zone this season.

The Bears play distribution was close to their projection. The passing game produced more passing yards than projected but failed to throw for any touchdown passes. The running game fell short of their projected yardage but did produce a rushing score. The Bears have passed on over 58% of their plays in the red zone.

Takeaways:

  • The Broncos offense was more run focused with Brock Osweiler at quarterback this week, watch to see if trend continues (I think it will)

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Brock Osweiler chance for 2nd TD pass (+)
    • Osweiler did get 2 TD passes
  • Both Defenses could also make good plays (+)
    • Both defenses were solid, Broncos had 2 sacks and forced 2 turnovers, Bears had 5 sacks

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Green Bay Packers 63 38 60.3% 255 1.9 25 39.7% 115 0.6 21.1
Minnesota Vikings 65 33 50.8% 230 1.0 32 49.2% 155 1.1 21.6
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Green Bay Packers 70 36 51.4% 212 2 34 48.6% 124 0 30
Minnesota Vikings 62 44 71.0% 296 1 18 29.0% 94 1 13

Working with a lead, the Packers were able to focus on the running game more than expected. The running game was effective finishing with similar yardage to their projection, but without a rushing score. The passing game fell a short of their projected yardage but did throw for two touchdowns. The Packers have passed on over 70% of their plays inside the 10 yard line this season.

The Vikings were forced to go to the air as they were trailing most of the game. The extra pass attempts resulted in more passing yards than projected to go along with one touchdown pass. The running game only had 18 carries with resulted in far fewer rushing yards than projected with one rushing touchdown. The Vikings run the ball over 62% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.

Takeaways:

  • Solid game for the Packers offense, but still not producing elite offensive numbers
  • Vikings passing game continues to have limited upside even in a game where they had 44 pass plays

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • None, both Kickers could be options (watch the weather) (+)
    • Mason Crosby was the top kicker on the day with 16 points, Blair Walsh, however, only had 1 point

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
San Francisco 49ers 61 34 55.7% 191 0.9 27 44.3% 97 0.6 14.9
Seattle Seahawks 65 33 50.8% 280 1.6 32 49.2% 159 1.0 23.6
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
San Francisco 49ers 52 36 69.2% 264 1 16 30.8% 59 0 13
Seattle Seahawks 75 31 41.3% 260 3 44 58.7% 255 1 29

The 49ers went to the air even more often than projected. The passing game was fairly effective with the increased attempts passing for more yardage than projected with one touchdown pass. The running game was ineffective with limited attempts falling well short of their projected yardage and did not score. The 49ers have passed on over 62% of their plays in the red zone this season.

The Seahawks pounded the ball on the ground even more frequently than expected. The running game was very successful with almost 100 more rushing yards than projected to go along with one rushing score. The passing game was also efficient falling just short of their projected passing yards but throwing three touchdown passes. The Seahawks have run the ball over 51% of the time in the red zone this season.

Takeaways:

  • The 49ers passing game has been decent with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback
  • This is the ceiling for the Seahawks passing game

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Marshawn Lynch (++)
    • Lynch was inactive, but Thomas Rawls had a huge day with 209 rushing yards, 46 receiving yards and 2 TDs
  • Russell Wilson and the Seahawks passing game (++)
    • Good day for Wilson with 260 yards and 3 TDs, Tyler Lockett was the top receiver with 48 receiving yards and 2 TDs

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Kansas City Chiefs 62 36 58.1% 247 1.6 26 41.9% 122 1.0 24.0
San Diego Chargers 68 45 66.2% 293 2.1 23 33.8% 85 0.4 21.4
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Kansas City Chiefs 59 28 47.5% 253 0 31 52.5% 153 3 33
San Diego Chargers 58 33 56.9% 178 0 25 43.1% 52 0 3

The Chiefs were able to focus on the running game as they worked with a big lead. The running game was very effective producing more rushing yards than projected and three rushing touchdowns. The passing game was close to their projected passing yards but failed to throw for a touchdown. The Chiefs have run the ball over 62% of the time inside the 10 yard line this season.

The Chargers ran the ball at a higher rate despite trailing. Both the passing game and running game were very ineffective, both underperforming expectations in yardage with no touchdowns on the day. The Chargers pass almost 70% of the time in the red zone.

Takeaways:

  • The Chiefs defense has been stepping up over the last few games
  • The Chargers passing game might have limited upside with all the injuries at receiver

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Alex Smith chance for 2nd TD pass (+)
    • Smith did not throw for any TDs
  • I also like both Kickers (+)
    • Cairo Santos (9 points), Josh Lambo (3 points)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Cincinnati Bengals 64 36 56.3% 236 1.7 28 43.8% 105 0.8 22.3
Arizona Cardinals 65 36 55.4% 275 1.9 29 44.6% 143 0.8 24.5
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Cincinnati Bengals 71 44 62.0% 315 2 27 38.0% 100 2 31
Arizona Cardinals 58 33 56.9% 317 4 25 43.1% 82 0 34

The Bengals went to the air slightly more often than projected. The increase in pass attempts resulted in more passing yards than projected to go along with two touchdown passes. The running game came just short of their projected yardage but did score two rushing touchdowns. The Bengals have run the ball over 55% of the time inside the 10 yard line.

The Cardinals play distribution fell in line with their projection. The passing game was very effective passing for more yardage and touchdowns than projected. However, the running game fell significantly short of their projected yardage and failed to score. The Cardinals pass on over 57% of their plays in the red zone.

Takeaways:

  • The Bengals continue to pass more often than they were earlier this season.
  • The Cardinals passing game is matchup proof

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • Cardinals rushing yardage (+)
    • Only 63 rushing yards for Cardinals leading rusher Chris Johnson
  • Another game where the Kickers could be in play (+)
    • Chandler Catanzaro (10 points), Mike Nugent (7 points)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Buffalo Bills 64 35 54.7% 227 1.4 29 45.3% 128 0.9 20.8
New England Patriots 67 43 64.2% 296 2.3 24 35.8% 97 0.9 27.7
Actual Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Buffalo Bills 68 38 55.9% 233 0 30 44.1% 94 1 13
New England Patriots 62 40 64.5% 277 1 22 35.5% 85 1 20

The Bills play distribution fell in line with their projection. The passing game threw for just over their projected yardage but failed to throw a touchdown pass. The running game fell short of their projected yardage but did score a rushing touchdown. The Bills run over 65% of the time inside the 10 yard line.

The Patriots fell right in line with their projected play distribution. The passing game fell slightly short of their expected passing yards and only threw one touchdown pass. The running game finished close to their projected yardage and scored once on the ground. The Patriots pass over 57% of the time in the red zone.

Takeaways:

  • The Bills pass defense stepped up to limit the Patriots to only one passing TD, watch to see if they can make it a trend

Increased Opportunities Review:

  • None, I like the Patriots defense (+)
    • Decent game for Patriots defense only allowing 13 points with 2 sacks and 1 turnover.

 

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