I had a few strong picks last week especially with my “sneaky shootout” call for the Jets/Browns game including Matt Forte. This week was a little harder to read without too many significant increased opportunities presenting themselves. It might be a week to focus on the few games with high Vegas point totals such as the Colts/Packers and Saints/49ers games. As you will see many of the Top Plays this week come from those games. I also have one gut call on a QB that is in a good spot and might go a little under-owned this week. So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Atlanta Falcons 65 38 58.5% 302 2.2 27 41.5% 114 1.0 27.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70 42 60.0% 260 2.1 28 40.0% 107 0.8 24.2
Look for the Falcons to execute a few more plays than normal this week on the road in Tampa with their typical play distribution. The passing game will fall short of their typical production with fewer passing yards and a decreased chance for more than two touchdown passes. The running game will perform in line with their typical level of production for yardage with one rushing score. The Falcons run the ball over 52% of the time inside the 10 yard line. The Buccaneers will pass more often than usual this week. As a result, the passing game will have a slight increase in yardage and their chance for more than two touchdown passes. The running game will gain fewer yards than normal but have a slightly increased chance for a rushing score. The Buccaneers pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.   Increased Opportunities:
  • Jameis Winston and the Bucs passing game (Mike Evans) (+)
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