What a difference a week makes. After last week where only three games had a favorite of more than four points, this week features eight games with favorites of at least six points. Bigger Vegas lines lead to more teams relying more on the run to protect a lead and the pass to play catch up thus more “Increased Opportunities”. Also, I must have eaten something this week because my “gut” was speaking to me more than usual including calling for touchdowns from a couple of players who haven’t scored yet this season. If you haven’t signed up for our Premium Content yet, then do so now to find out who my “gut calls” are along with the rest of my Top Plays. So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
New Orleans Saints 70 44 62.9% 308 2.3 26 37.1% 94 0.7 25.4
Carolina Panthers 70 40 57.1% 311 1.6 30 42.9% 131 1.6 26.0
The Saints project to execute their typical play distribution on the road in Carolina on Thursday night. The passing game will fall short of their typical passing yards with a reduced chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will also have a decrease in production with fewer yards and a decreased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Saints pass 55% of the time in the red zone. Look for the Panthers to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will be more productive than normal with a significant increase in yardage and their opportunity for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will also see an increase in yardage and their chance for two rushing scores. The Panthers run the ball over 68% of the time inside the 10 yard line. Increased Opportunities:
  • Cam Newton and the Panthers passing game (Kelvin Benjamin/Greg Olsen) (++)
  • Jonathan Stewart (++)
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