There was nothing like Week 9 that I’ve seen since playing daily fantasy sports.
Not only was it a crazy week for trades, the scramble was on as we got down to lock.
I don’t remember the order of the news coming out, but we got word that Zach Ertz was out, a surprise DNP from Leonard Fournette for violating team rules and then, albeit a mild note, Jeremy Hill was ruled inactive.
The first two events truly changed the slate, especially in cash games. I swapped to Trey Burton at TE, easiest play of the week while Fournette had me scrambling to the PlayDRAFT app to swap out, but the news of Fournette literally crashed their servers.
They made the inability to late swap Fournette and Ertz right with its customers, but it cost them more than $300K to do it.
Speaking of the DRAFT app, I started playing on it when it first came around a couple of years ago, then there was that silly declaration of DFS being “gambling” Texas and my right to play on DFS on DRAFT was taken away.
Then, my allowance magically appeared around the time the 2017 football season began.
football season was about to start and I’ve been playing ever since. So I encourage you to hop on to the DRAFT app and give me a follow at draft.com/hotdogphingers
Anyway, let’s dive into Week 10 where we have 11 games with most sporting low totals. We already have one big name not playing, and that’s Zeke Elliott, who I guess is now suspended for the next 6 games? Who knows if he will really serve that entire sentence.
As far as injuries are concerned, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Matt Forte are the notable statuses to monitor this week. I especially will be on some Bilal Powell should Forte sit. At $4,000 on DraftKings, he would be in a smash spot against the Bucs porous run defense.
I absolutely love this slate, too. I think there are a lot of spots to attack and I find it fairly comfortable to predict potential outcomes. There are a lot of funnel spots, good teams versus bad teams and situations where injuries/suspensions can help narrow down where the production should come from.
With that said, let’s get to this weeks rankings and into our official picks. Remember, rankings are matchup based and not salary based. Also, follow my DailyOverlay Twitter feed @hotdogdailyDFS.
- Matthew Stafford
- Dak Prescott
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Jared Goff
- Matt Ryan
- Le’Veon Bell
- Jordan Howard
- Leonard Fournette
- Todd Gurley
- LeSean McCoy
- A.J. Green
- Antonio Brown
- Julio Jones
- Michael Thomas
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Cameron Brate
- Evan Engram
- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
- Kyle Rudolph
- Hunter Henry
- Ben Roethlisberger/Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown
- Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu
- Matthew Stafford/Golden Tate
- Jared Goff/Todd Gurley/Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp
- Drew Brees/Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas
- Dak Prescott/Dez Bryant
- Ryan Fitzpatrick/DeSean Jackson/Cameron Brate
- Jordan Howard/Bears DST
- Leonard Fournette/Jags DST
- Tyrod Taylor/LeSean McCoy/Charles Clay
- Andy Dalton/A.J. Green
- Eli Manning/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram
Top Tournament Fades
- Jack Doyle
- Orleans Darkwa
- T.Y. Hilton
- Marvin Jones
- Jared Goff
- Drew Brees
- Juju Smith-Schuster
- Dak Prescott
- Evan Engram
- Lamar Miller
- Ameer Abdullah
- Keenan Allen
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Saints RBs
- Kirk Cousins
Analysis: Welcome to the cash game lock of the slate. Mr. Stafford, at home, against a pass funnel defense coming off a bye. The Browns head to Detroit to take on the Lions. There is research out there that shows that teams coming off of a bye tend to play well (unless you are Green Bay and your quarterback is Brett Hundley). The Browns are the top-rated defense against the run and the Lions can’t run the ball very well. This has all the makings of a smash spot for Stafford and the Lions. Barring any big plays by the defense or special teams, the way the Lions will get their points this week is through the air. The Browns aren’t allowing a ton of yards passing per game for having a bad pass defense, but that is white noise and more about teams scoring lots of points against them early and not having to pass late. What is telling is the Browns’ 25.3 points allowed per game. The Lions score 25.8 points per game, mostly through the air, so this is a match made in heaven.
Analysis: Truthfully, I think Jordan Howard is the top running back option on the slate. Le’Veon feels ultra safe, but we all expect a blowout against the Colts, perhaps limiting the upside of Bell considering his price. But Howard is completely mispriced. He’s a workforce back who has had touches of 23, 19, 18, 36, 21, 23 in his past six games and had 5 targets in his last outing as well. It looks like Tarik Cohen is just a gadget player with Trubisky at QB and this team is all about clock control and pounding the rock. That fits perfectly here against the Packers, who are seventh in fantasy points allowed per game to RBs, giving up 839 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns while allowing 40 catches for 320 yards and 3 TDs against. He’s the first guy going in my cash lineups this week and the Bears DST is No. 2.
Analysis: My second favorite cash game play of the week is Sterling Shepard. He’s the de facto No. 1 wide receiver due to all of the injuries (outside of maybe Evan Engram). The Giants are facing the 49ers, who have given up 99 catches for 1360 yards and 9 touchdowns to WRs this season, and are allowing 244.8 yards passing per game to go along with 26.6 points allowed per game. The 49ers run an uptempo offense, so that will mean more plays for the Giants on offense considering how bad their defense is, too. In Shepard’s return last week, he had 9 targets, 5 catches and 70 yards. Thankfully for us, he didn’t go nuts otherwise he might be priced out for us this week. But because he didn’t ball out but put up a respectable line, Shep’s price is very manageable to fit in this week with soft pricing on DraftKings.
Analysis: Julio Jones didn’t practice Thursday and if he doesn’t practice Friday in some capacity, that would really raise my eyebrow on whether he will actually suit up and be a No. 1 type wideout. Sanu’s stock would certainly rise against the Cowboys’ should Julio sit, but I still think he’s in a great spot regardless. Facing a zone defensive scheme, Sanu should be able to move around in the slot and find the space in the middle of the field where the Cowboys have been getting torched all season. Perimeter receivers haven’t been great, nor awful against the Cowboys this season, but it’s the slot guys and tight ends are where the damage is done against Dallas. Sanu’s had double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. Even without Zeke, I expect the Cowboys to put up points and help keep the running back situation in check with Sean Lee manning the linebacking corps. Sanu is a great cash game play this week and has potential ceiling with Julio Jones’ availability in question.