Week 17! Hard to believe it is already the last week of the NFL regular season. While Week 17 in season long fantasy leagues is an absolute “no-no” in my book, it is one of my favorite weeks of the NFL season for DFS. It is the most unpredictable week of the season, including Week 1, due to all of the different circumstances that you need to evaluate depending on what teams have to play for. I feel it is the week that actually requires the most skill to navigate the entire season.
So with that, I am going with a different format to the Offensive Tendencies article this week that is similar to the “Hot Sheet” style that I used during Thanksgiving week. Only this time, I will spend a little bit of time analyzing each game. Here is a snippet from the Thanksgiving article to better explain where the numbers come from for each position.
The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks:
- Vegas line and total
- Team pace (plays)
- Overall play distribution
- Red Zone and Inside 10 play distribution
- Yards per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
- TD per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
- DVOA ratings from FootballOutsiders
- Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns
All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in red are “hot” indicating a good matchup and potential “increased opportunity” for this week.
As always, I will give my Top Plays for the week at the bottom of the article. So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
The Texans have clinched the AFC South division and locked into the fourth seed. That said, look for the Texans to play most of their starters throughout the game as long as they are healthy and the game is close. The running game will likely be led by Alfred Blue, with Lamar Miller nursing an injury, but will struggle against a solid Titans rush defense. The passing game will have some success in particular with yardage. The best receiving options in the passing game will be Jonathan Grimes out of the backfield and Will Fuller.
The Titans have been eliminated from the playoffs. The passing game will have Matt Cassel at QB, following the injury to Marcus Mariota last week. With Cassel under center against a solid Texans’ defense, the Titans passing game will struggle to move the ball through the air with the best receiving option coming from DeMarco Murray on check down passes. The running game will have some success but look for a split workload between Murray and Derrick Henry in a game that doesn’t carry any meaning for the Titans.
- Will Fuller (+)