Time for the final Offensive Tendencies article for the NFL season. It has been a fun season with some great calls and of course some misses but I hope you have enjoyed reading the column as much as I have enjoyed writing it. So, for this weekend’s Divisional round I will once again be utilizing the “Hot Sheet” style including some analysis of each game that I used last week.
Also, when it comes to a small slate of games you need something to differentiate your lineup from the masses, especially in a GPP. So I have also added a “Gut Call” for each team this week. You will notice that most of these are centered on touchdowns, as I also feel that who scores the touchdowns has increased importance in a small slate of games.
Here is a snippet to better explain where the numbers come from for each position.
The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks:
- Vegas line and total
- Team pace (plays)
- Overall play distribution
- Red Zone and Inside 10 play distribution
- Yards per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
- TD per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
- DVOA ratings from FootballOutsiders
- Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns
All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in red are “hot” indicating a good matchup and potential “increased opportunity” for this week.
As always, I will give my Top Plays for the week at the bottom of the article. So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…