The Hot Sheet continues to get stronger as we the weeks go by and we get more data points to analyze. Last week my Top Plays featured six out of eight WRs recommended securing at least 75 yards and a touchdown including low owned options like Michael Thomas and Taylor Gabriel.
Week 4 features an interesting set of games that includes some of the best matchups for DFS occurring on alternate slates including the Thursday night game, another Sunday morning tilt in London, a Sunday night game that has been excluded from the main slate by Drafkings (what are they doing!) and a good Monday night matchup. This will be a week that I put more bankroll in play on the full slate than normal so I can get some exposure to those games. Be sure to read my individual write-ups of those games but I will focus my Top Play recommendations on the 12-game “main” slate on DraftKings since that is what we will base our Expert Consensus and grading on this week.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
|Green Bay Packers||60||52||77||52||47||58||60||62||-7|
The Bears have a short week coming off an overtime win over the Steelers to travel “up north” to Green Bay to face Packers on Thursday night. Look for the Bears’ offense to focus on the running game and short passes to try to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands. The running game which will feature both Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen should be able to have some success against the Packers’ rush defense that ranks 22nd allowing 4.28 YPC to opposing RBs while the Bears’ duo has the 3rd highest YPC (5.16) so far this season. In the passing game, Mike Glennon will continue to throw short dump offs to the RBs which should also be effective against a Packers’ defense that ranks 31st DVOA against pass catching RBs this season. The Bears’ WRs rate well but with so few targets going their way, I will avoid them.
The Packers offense has played at a fast pace so far this season averaging more plays than any team but could be forced to slow if the Bears can control the clock. The Packers may also resort to a more conservative game plan with their injuries to the offensive line which could limit Aaron Rodgers’ upside despite a solid matchup against the Bears’ 22nd DVOA ranked pass defense. When Rodgers does throw, I expect the biggest production out of Randall Cobb in the middle of the field. Martellus Bennett would be my favorite play in this game against one of his former teams but I have concerns that he will be kept in to block to help out the depleted offensive line. Ty Montgomery could be limited the passing game as the Bears rank 6th DVOA against opposing pass catchers out of the backfield, but he should have a decent game on the ground with a good chance for a rushing score against a Bears’ run defense that has allowed an average of one rushing TD per week. Mason Crosby could also have a good game as the Bears have allowed 2.67 field goal attempts per game this season. Look for the offensive production to be quite spread out in a lower scoring game than expected.
- Jordan Howard (*)
- Tarik Cohen (*)
- Aaron Rodgers (*)
- Randall Cobb (*)
- Martellus Bennett (*)
- Ty Montgomery (*)
- Mason Crosby (*)