My game-by-game breakdown this week unveiled a ton of options that I like at WR, yet somehow there aren’t a lot of QBs that I like much. Not sure exactly how that worked out but if you don’t like any of the QBs that I recommend at the bottom of the article in my Top Plays then just follow one of the WR recommendations to his QB and you will hit a player that I’m at least somewhat interested in. The RB position also seems like a slam dunk with the top options along with a few value options. I think we can save some salary at TE this week but might have to pay up for a defense.

Anyway, that is all a long way of saying that I do like this slate quite a bit and feel that I have a pretty good read on it. Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
New Orleans Saints 50 69 45 62 34 44 35 65 52
Atlanta Falcons 51 59 46 49 50 48 39 59 0

The Saints continued to run all over teams with a victory over the Panthers last week. Next up is another key divisional matchup against the Falcons on Thursday night. Look for the Saints to continue to use the same recipe for success that has worked all season with the focus on the running game against the Falcons’ 31st DVOA ranked run defense. I do expect them to step up somewhat at home. With Mark Ingram a little bit hobbled Alvin Kamara could be in line for some additional touches plus if the game script forces the Saints to play catchup, Kamara should have success out of the backfield. Drew Brees faces a Falcons’ pass defense that has been solid allowing just 216 passing yards per game (6th) over the last five weeks. Other than Kamara, look for Ted Ginn to get more involved again this week with Michael Thomas drawing more attention from the Falcons’ secondary. Kicker Will Lutz moves from one dome to another for ideal kicking conditions as the Falcons have allowed 2.25 field goal attempts per game this season.

Following a disappointing loss to the Vikings at home last week the Falcons will welcome another strong team to Atlanta with a divisional matchup against the Saints. With the Saints key secondary players looking like they will play, the Falcons will need to emphasize their running game behind their own two-headed monster with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Freeman looked good in his return to the field racking up 74 yards on 12 carries last week. He and Coleman get a favorable matchup against the Saints’ run defense which ranks 27th DVOA this season and has allowed 4.26 YPC (23rd). Scoring in the red zone might be more difficult for Freeman but he is still a solid play. The Falcons’ passing game may be forced to send targets to secondary receivers such as WR Mohammad Sanu and TE Austin Hooper with Julio Jones drawing tough coverage. I could see this game being lower scoring than the Vegas total would indicate.

Hot Picks:

  • Alvin Kamara (***)
  • Ted Ginn (*)
  • Will Lutz (*)
  • Devonta Freeman (**)
  • Mohammad Sanu (*)
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