After some abbreviated NFL Hot Sheet articles over the Thanksgiving holiday, I’m back with a full write up for lucky Week 13 of the NFL season. This week there are a ton of WRs that I like but the options at RB seem a little thin. There are also some games that I feel I have a good read on this week along with a couple “gut calls” that could be game changers if they pan out.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Washington Redskins 63 61 70 70 50 58 56 44 -1.5
Dallas Cowboys 47 59 30 50 30 55 52 57 46

The Redskins will play on Thursday night for the second straight week after defeating the Giants on Thanksgiving last week. The Redskins should have plenty of success moving the ball against the Cowboys’ defense which ranks 26th DVOA against the pass and 28th DVOA against the run. Kirk Cousins ranks near the top of the league in passing yards and touchdowns and should carve up the Cowboys’ secondary which ranks 27th in yards allowed and 26th TD passes allowed this season. Jamison Crowder will continue to be Cousins’ primary target as he has averaged 10.5 targets per game over the last four games. Josh Doctson will also get some looks, especially in the red zone. The matchup is also right for Vernon Davis to have a bounce-back game but I still have concerns that he was left in to block so frequently last week. Samaje Perine has produced back-to-back 100 yard games and gets a favorable matchup against a Cowboys’ defense that will be without LB Sean Lee and has allowed 4.44 YPC (28th) this season).

The Cowboys have looked terrible the last three weeks failing to score double-digits in any of the three losses. However, those losses where to three good teams (Falcons, Eagles, Chargers) and I expect the Cowboys to step up in a divisional matchup at home with the back up against the wall. The Redskins have struggled to stop the run over the last five weeks allowing 118 yards (28th) and 0.8 rushing TDs (25th) per game on 4.72 YPC (28th). Alfred Morris and Rod Smith had an even split of carries on Thanksgiving with Smith getting the goal line score. The split backfield makes it difficult to recommend either player but I’ll give the edge to Morris facing his former team. Dak Prescott will need convert via the air on third downs to keep drives moving in a ball control offense and with Dez Bryant locked up with Josh Norman, look for WR Cole Beasley and TE Jason Witten to be his primary targets to move the chains.

Hot Picks:

  • Kirk Cousins (**)
  • Jamison Crowder (**)
  • Josh Doctson (*)
  • Samaje Perine (**)
  • Alfred Morris (*)
  • Cole Beasley (*)
  • Jason Witten (*)
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