With the NBA season starting to wind down, the abundance of late scratches and lineup changes, and Opening Day for MLB just around the corner, the upcoming week will be the final week that we produce our NBA Industry Consensus articles, Lineup Construction articles and grade the NBA DFS experts. With one week to go Scout Fantasy, DailyRoto and the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down all have a chance to take home top honors for the year. It will be fun to see who can make one final push to rise to the top.

In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one or two experts, but produced an “A+” grade. I will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. You can view the full NBA Overall Standings here. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.

As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the NBA Industry Consensus articles and NBA Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the NBA season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first game tips off to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.

On to the grades!

Week in Review

Monday (March 21)

Monday night a consisted of a solid nine-game slate of NBA action. The experts did well seven out of 12 reaching a DailyOverlay score greater than 5.0, including the Industry Consensus picks.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus finished with a solid 5th place ranking out of 12 experts graded but registering a DailyOverlay score of 5.42 for the day.

A+ – Stephen Curry, DeMarcus Cousins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Taj Gibson, Isaiah Thomas, Ray McCallum, Amir Johnson, Ricky Rubio, Draymond Green, Bradley Beal, John Wall
F – Jared Sullinger, Tyson Chandler

Top Experts of the Day
#1) RotoGrinders 6-pack (Score: 7.83) blew away the competition on Monday with four “A+” grades of his six selections. Key selections included consensus picks, Amir Johnson, Bradley Beal and Stephen Curry, plus an off the radar pick of Andrew Wiggins.

#2) Scout Fantasy (Score: 6.30) pulls into second place on Monday with all 10 selections receiving a grade of “C” or better including four “A+” grades from Stephen Curry, John Wall, Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMarcus Cousins.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – LeBron James (DailyFantasySportsRankings, DailyRoto)
A+ – Al Horford (DailyFantasySportsRankings, FanSided)
A+ – Andrew Wiggins (RotoGrinders 6-pack, FanSided)
A+ – Thabo Sefolosha (RotoGrinders Expert Tourney picks, FantasyTeamAdvice)
A+ – Victor Oladipo (Moxyball-MoxyList, FanSided)
A+ – Darren Collison (Moxyball-MoxyList, FantasyAlarm)
A+ – Otto Porter (FantasyAlarm, FanSided)
A+ – Avery Bradley (FanSided)
A+ – Hollis Thompson (FanSided)
A+ – Tim Hardaway Jr. (FanSided)

Tuesday (March 22)

Tuesday night featured a small four-game slate of NBA action. The experts performed well with seven experts receiving a DailyOverlay score of 5.0 or better.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus picks didn’t fare as well on the night finishing down in 8th place out of 11 experts graded with a DailyOverlay score of 4.71.

A+ – Russell Westbrook, Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, Omer Asik, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, Luke Babbitt, Trevor Ariza
F – Ray McCallum, Thaddeus Young, Luol Deng, Matt Barnes, Josh Richardson

Top Experts of the Day
#1) DailyRoto (Score: 7.21) tops the list with nine “A+” grades out of their 14 selections. Some of their top plays included Russell Westbrook, Jrue Holiday, Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. They also had some lesser selected players such as Dwyane Wade and Brook Lopez to help bring them to the top for the day.

#2) DailyFantasySportsRankings (Score: 6.67) comes in second place with 11 out of their 15 selections receiving a grade of “A” or better. They had some consensus plays such as Russell Westbrook, Luke Babbitt and Jrue Holiday but they also had some “off the board” plays like Tony Allen, Courtney Lee and Cody Zeller.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Tony Allen (DailyFantasySportsRankings, FanSided)
A+ – Courtney Lee (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Cody Zeller (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Dwyane Wade (DailyRoto, FanSided)
A+ – Brook Lopez (DailyRoto, FantasyAlarm)
A+ – Julius Randle (RotoGrinders Expert Tourney Picks, Moxyball-MoxyList)
A+ – Patrick Beverley (FantasyTeamAdvice, FanSided)
A+ – Brandon Bass (FantasyTeamAdvice)
A+ – Sean Kilpatrick (FanSided)
A+ – Serge Ibaka (FanSided)

Wednesday (March 23)

Wednesday night consisted of a huge slate of 12 NBA games. Not as many experts were able to navigate the big 12 game schedule with only five experts receiving a DailyOverlay score of 5.0 or greater.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus finished near the middle of the pack with a 7th place finish out of 12 experts graded coming in with a 4.77 DailyOverlay score.

A+ – Mason Plumlee, James Harden, LeBron James, Brandon Knight, Klay Thompson, Derrick Favors, Karl-Anthony Towns, Stephen Curry, Kevin Love, Andre Drummond, Robin Lopez, Gorgui Dieng
F – Michael Beasley, Pau Gasol

Top Experts of the Day
#1) DailyRoto (Score: 6.60) tops the leaderboard for the second straight day with a whopping 14 “A+” grades out of 25 selections. Some of their top picks included consensus plays like Stephen Curry, Brandon Knight, James Harden and Mason Plumlee. They also had some “off the board” picks come through such as Gordon Hayward, Jon Leuer and Kosta Koufos.

#2) Scout Fantasy (Score: 6.40) also had a good night with five “A+” grades out of 10 selections. They received high marks from Stephen Curry, James Harden, Gordon Hayward, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kosta Koufos.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Wesley Matthews (DailyFantasySportsRankings, RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down)
A+ – Julius Randle (DailyFantasySportsRankings, DailyRoto)
A+ – Gordon Hayward (DailyRoto, Scout Fantasy)
A+ – Jon Leuer (DailyRoto, FanSided)
A+ – Kosta Koufos (DailyRoto, Scout Fantasy)
A+ – Stanley Johnson (RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down)
A+ – Kristaps Porzingis (RotoGrinders Expert Tourney Picks)
A+ – Devin Booker (Moxyball-MoxyList)
A+ – PJ Tucker (Moxyball-MoxyList
A+ – Amir Johnson (FantasyAlarm, FanSided)
A+ – Josh Richardson (FanSided)
A+ – Evan Turner (FanSided)
A+ – Ed Davis (FanSided)

 

Friday (March 25)

Friday night consisted of a nine-game slate of NBA games. Friday night was an example where the sum of parts was greater than the individual pieces with the Industry Consensus picks finishing in the top spot for the night while only four other expert’s selections finished with a DailyOverlay score over 5.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus picks finished in 1st place out of 12 experts, posting a DailyOverlay score of 5.81.

A+ – James Harden, John Wall, Hassan Whiteside, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Bradley Beal, Draymond Green, Jusuf Nurkic, Julius Randle, Tim Duncan
F – Jon Leuer

Top Experts of the Day
#1) DailyOverlay Industry Consensus (Score: 5.81) top the list by recording 18 grades of “B” or better out of 26 selections. This was the third time this season that the Industry Consensus finished in the top spot for a given day.

#2) DFSOnDemand (Score: 5.80) grabs second place just a fraction behind first with four out of their five selections receiving a grade of “B” or better. Top picks included James Harden, Julius Randle and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Wesley Matthews (DailyFantasySportsRankings, FantasyAlarm)
A+ – JJ Barea (RotoGrinders Expert Tourney Picks, FantasyAlarm)
A+ – DJ Augustin (FantasyTeamAdvice)
A+ – Jerryd Bayless (FanSided)
A+ – Michael Beasley (FanSided)
A+ – Luis Scola (FanSided)

Overall Leaderboard

We have now completed 22 weeks of the NBA season. You can view the full NBA Overall Standings here.

#1) Scout Fantasy (Score: 5.22) continues to produce solid picks, as we have now tracked them for the last three weeks. I am going to remove the asterisk this week and officially place them in the number one spot in the overall standings. They had a solid week with two finishes in the top two this week on Monday and Wednesday.

#2) DailyRoto (Score: 5.00) made their move this week pushing ahead of the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down thanks to back-to-back first place finishes on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

#3) RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down (Score: 4.99) drops one spot in the overall standings but can still move back into second or even first with a strong week.

The Daily Overlay Industry Consensus picks (Score: 4.68) had a good week including a first place finish on Friday. The overall score continues to climb each week which has moved them up to 5th place in the overall standings and within striking distance of 4th place with one week of grading to go.

Let’s see which experts can make the grade this week in our final week of NBA grading this season.

Consensus Lineup Construction Review

While we were able to cash on three out of four days on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week we were unable to pair up both a Cash and GPP win on any night resulting in a small loss overall for the week.

Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:

  1. We will make two separate lineups for each site (FanDuel and DraftKings), one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments.
  2. For Cash games, we will build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in.
  3. For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
  4. We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.

The results of those lineups will be provided in this section each week.

Weekly Results

FanDuel

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit(Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit(Loss) Picks By
Monday 284.2 42/100 $0.80 274.8 29,896/84,747 ($1.00) Stephen
Tuesday 276.3 36/100 $0.80 248.6 67,034/84,747 ($1.00) Stephen
Wednesday 279.7 67/100 ($1.00) 307.8 15,179/88,235 $1.50 Stephen
Friday 267.4 76/100 ($1.00) 287.5 39,615/88,235 ($1.00) Stephen
Total 276.9(avg) ($0.40) 279.7(avg) ($1.50)

Stephen was able to cash with either his Cash lineup or GPP lineup on three out of four days this week. He was hurt on Friday by the Brandon Knight late scratch in his Cash game lineup. Overall, a small loss this week on FanDuel.

DraftKings

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit(Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit(Loss) Picks By
Monday 256.25 50/100 $1.60 208.00 26,829/29,411 ($1.00) Brad
Tuesday 261.25 21/100 $1.60 262.50 805/3,450 ($2.00) Matt
Wednesday 249.25 94/100 ($2.00) 262.25 15,555/29,411 ($1.00) Brad
Friday 268.75 68/100 ($2.00) 301.25 794/4,705 $1.00 Matt
Total 258.9(avg) ($0.80) 258.5(avg) ($3.00)

Similar story on DraftKings where Matt and Brad were able to cash on three out of four days this week but were unable to turn a profit overall.

Overall Results

Below you will see a grid of our results since we changed our process to the new rules where we have more flexibility on who we select from the Industry Consensus list each day.

Our GPP results have been strong since switching to the new process that allows us to go “off the board” for a couple of our lineup spots. We will look to improve on our Cash game ROI this week which will be our last week of producing lineups for the NBA season.

FanDuel Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $2.00 $3.60 80.00% $1.00 $2.00 100.00% $3.00 $5.60 86.67%
Stephen $20.00 $16.20 -19.00% $22.00 $25.27 14.86% $42.00 $41.47 -1.26%
FD Overall $22.00 $19.80 -10.00% $23.00 $27.27 18.57% $45.00 $47.07 4.60%
DraftKings
Brad $20.00 $14.40 -28.00% $10.00 $41.00 310.00% $30.00 $55.40 84.67%
Matt $22.00 $21.60 -1.82% $16.00 $12.00 -25.00% $38.00 $33.60 -11.58%
DK Overall $42.00 $36.00 -14.29% $26.00 $53.00 103.85% $68.00 $89.00 30.88%
Overall $64.00 $55.80 -12.81% $49.00 $80.27 63.82% $113.00 $136.07 20.42%

 

Ownership Percentage Tracking

A part of daily fantasy sports strategy is understanding ownership percentages and being able to predict ownership percentages prior to entering contests especially for GPP tournaments where you might want to be contrarian by selecting lower owned players or fading highly owned players depending on the payout structure and size of the contest.

We had a hypothesis at DailyOverlay that we could utilize the Industry Consensus list to help predict ownership percentages with the assumption being that players who were selected by more experts would likely be higher owned picks in Cash and GPP tournaments.

Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked over the last three weeks. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.

Count Cash% GPP% Total
11 71.63% 46.27% 3
10 58.28% 34.75% 6
9 49.44% 28.59% 11
8 37.49% 22.03% 20
7 30.17% 21.16% 49
6 24.80% 18.52% 64
5 19.36% 16.38% 103
4 14.57% 13.05% 122
3 10.64% 10.72% 185
2 8.70% 9.04% 254
1 3.85% 5.38% 460

 

Our original hypothesis looks to be correct, showing that we can use the Industry Consensus list as a tool to help predict ownership percentages. I will look to continue to track this over the remainder of the season and provide some deeper analysis when we have more data.

 

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