We have a new leader again in the Overall Standings as RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down jumps back into first place as they continue to yo-yo between first and second place with DailyRoto. The DailyOverlay Industry Consensus picks had a strong week finishing in the top four three times this week. Meanwhile, our Lineup Construction experiment had its first profitable week in Cash games winning three out of four days on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Finally, there is a new section at the bottom of the article about Ownership Percentages and if we can use the Industry Consensus picks to help predict ownership percentages. Find out more in the new Ownership Percentages Tracking section.

In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one or two experts, but produced an “A+” grade. I will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. You can view the full NBA Overall Standings here. And finally, I will publish results of our new Lineup Construction initiative.

As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the NBA Industry Consensus articles and NBA Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the NBA season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first game tips off to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.

On to the grades!

Week in Review

Monday (Feb 29)

Monday night a consisted of a solid seven-game slate of NBA action. The experts had a strong night with six experts plus the Industry Consensus registering a DailyOverlay score greater than 5.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus finished strong with a 3rd place ranking out of 12 experts graded with a DailyOverlay score of 5.78.

A+ – Jabari Parker, Dwight Howard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall, Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, Trevor Ariza, Brook Lopez
F – None

Top Experts of the Day
#1) FantasyTeamAdvice (Score: 6.30) led the way on Monday with eight out of their 10 selections receiving a grade of “B” or higher. Top picks included Consensus plays such as John Wall, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trevor Ariza, Brook Lopez and Dwight Howard.

#2) RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down (Score: 6.08) comes in second place with 11 out of 13 picks receiving a grade of “B” or better. Their best picks included some Consensus plays such as Dwight Howard, Jabari Parker, Russell Westbrook and Khris Middleton.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Jerami Grant (DailyRoto, FantasyAlarm)
A+ – Kenneth Faried (RotoGrinders 6-pack)
A+ – Jae Crowder (FantasyAlarm, FanSided)
A+ – Bojan Bogdanovic (FanSided)
A+ – Markieff Morris (FanSided)
A+ – Marcin Gortat (FanSided)
A+ – Miles Plumlee (FanSided)

 

Tuesday (March 1)

Tuesday night featured a six-game slate of NBA action. The experts didn’t perform as well as Monday with only two experts topping a DailyOverlay score of 5.0. However, the top of the daily leaderboard will look quite familiar to Monday’s results.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus picks had another strong night finishing in 4th place out of 12 experts graded with a DailyOverlay score of 4.28.

A+ – D’Angelo Russell, Kemba Walker, Hassan Whiteside, Bojan Bogdanovic, Draymond Green
F – Victor Oladipo

Top Experts of the Day
#1) FantasyTeamAdvice (Score: 5.50) tops the list for the second straight day with four “A+” grades out of 10 selections including players D’Angelo Russell, Kemba Walker, Hassan Whiteside from the Consensus list to go along with an off the radar selection of Andrew Bogut.

#2) RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down (Score: 5.31) comes in second place for the second straight day registering 10 grades of “B” or better out of 13 picks. Key selections included Kemba Walker, Hassan Whiteside, Bojan Bogdanovic and D’Angelo Russell.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Paul Millsap (DailyRoto)
A+ – Andrew Bogut (FantasyTeamAdvice, FanSided)
A+ – Joe Johnson (FanSided)

Wednesday (March 2)

Wednesday night consisted of a big 11-game slate NBA action. The experts had another very strong day with eight out of 11 experts exceeding a DailyOverlay score of 5.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus continued a very good week finishing in 4th place out of 12 experts graded with an excellent DailyOverlay score of 6.48.

A+ – Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, D’Angelo Russell, James Harden, Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Zach LaVine, Isaiah Thomas, Aaron Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Mike Conley, Kemba Walker, DeMarcus Cousins, Jared Sullinger, LaMarcus Aldridge
F – Matt Barnes

Top Experts of the Day
#1) RotoGrinders 6-pack (Score: 7.50) put up a big score to take home first place on Wednesday with four “A+” grades out of six selections. Top picks included Isaiah Thomas, Kawhi Leonard, Zach LaVine and Chris Paul.

#2) RotoGrinders Expert Tourney Picks (Score: 7.00) made it a clean sweep for the RotoGrinders crew on Wednesday with three “A+” grades out of five selections. Their selections were led by Isaiah Thomas, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Emmanuel Mudiay (DailyFantasySportsRankings, Moxyball – MoxyList)
A+ – Robert Covington (DailyFantasySportsRankings, FanSided)
A+ – DeAndre Jordan (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Ricky Rubio (DailyRoto)
A+ – Karl-Anthony Towns (DailyRoto)
A+ – Patrick Beverly (FantasyAlarm)
A+ – Mario Chalmers (FanSided)
A+ – Mario Hezonja (FakePigskin, FanSided)

 

Friday (March 4)

Friday night consisted of a solid 10-game slate of NBA games. After a strong week, Friday was the toughest on the experts with only one expert receiving a DailyOverlay score over 5.0 for the day.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus picks also had their worst showing of the week finishing in 9th place out of 12 experts, posting a DailyOverlay score of only 3.81.

A+ – LeBron James, Alex Len, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Isaiah Thomas, Hassan Whiteside, Emmanuel Mudiay
F – D’Angelo Russell, Aaron Gordon, Paul Millsap, Ricky Rubio, Will Barton

Top Experts of the Day
#1) RotoGrinders Expert Tourney Picks (Score: 5.44) finished in the top two for the second consecutive day with five grades of “A” or better out of nine selections. They had some Consensus plays such as Emmanuel Mudiay, LeBron James and Alex Len and also had Paul George who was only selected by two experts.

#2) RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down (Score: 4.71) grabs second place for the second time this week with seven out of 14 selections receiving a grade of “A” or “A+”. Top selections by the Grind Down included Alex Len, Hassan Whiteside, Isaiah Thomas, Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Nicolas Batum (DailyFantasySportsRankings, FantasyAlarm)
A+ – Paul George (RotoGrinders Expert Tourney picks, DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Elfrid Payton (Moxyball – MoxyList, FantasyAlarm)
A+ – Ian Mahinmi (FantasyAlarm)
A+ – Kemba Walker (FantasyTeamAdvice, FanSided)
A+ – Mario Chalmers (FanSided)
A+ – Robert Covington (FanSided)

 

Overall Leaderboard

We have now completed 19 weeks of the NBA season. You can view the full NBA Overall Standings here.

#1) RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down (Score: 4.96) jumps back into the top spot in the overall standings following a solid week that included two finishes in the top two. We’ll see if they can hold off DailyRoto down the stretch.

#2) DailyRoto (Score: 4.92) drops back into second place as they and the NBA Grind Down continue to see-saw back and forth between first and second place in the standings. DailyRoto didn’t have any top two finishes this week but did have numerous Sleeper of the Day selections.

#3) FakePigskin (Score: 4.74) continues to hold onto third place in the overall standings. They had selections three days this week with one finish in the top five on Friday.

The Daily Overlay Industry Consensus picks (Score: 4.60) had a strong week with three top four finishes. Overall, the Consensus picks remain solidly in 6th place in the overall standings out of a total of 14 experts graded this season and are within striking distance of going has high as third place in the overall standings if they can finish strong.

Let’s see which experts can make the grade this week in the NBA!

 

Consensus Lineup Construction Review

We have been using our new rules to construct FanDuel and DraftKings lineups over the last couple weeks and the results have been encouraging compared to our initial set of rules that forces us to utilize only the most selected players each night. The new process of building a lineup where we are not as constrained to pick only the most selected players has allowed for a better lineup building experience with more flexibility.

Here is a list of the “rules” we are now following when constructing lineups:

  1. We will make two separate lineups for each site (FanDuel and DraftKings), one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments.
  2. For Cash games, we will build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in.
  3. For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
  4. We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.

The results of those lineups will be provided in this section each week.

Weekly Results

FanDuel

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit(Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit(Loss) Picks By
Monday 324.6 23/100 $0.80 293.8 60,333/117,647 ($1.00) Stephen
Tuesday 295.1 60/100 ($1.00) 304.4 21,190/117,647 $1.00 Stephen
Wednesday 296.0 7/100 $0.80 286.2 15,393/117,647 $1.00 Stephen
Friday 293.4 47/100 $0.80 299.2 36,117/117,647 ($1.00) Stephen
Total 302.28(avg) $1.40 295.9(avg) $0.00

FanDuel lineups turned a profit this week with the best results since we started our lineup experiment. The lineups cashed in 50/50s on three out of four days (+35% ROI) with an average score greater than 300 points, while Stephen broke even on GPPs cashing two out of the four days.

DraftKings

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit(Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit(Loss) Picks By
Monday 282.00 27/100 $1.60 250.00 18,665/29,411 ($1.00) Brad
Tuesday 272.25 46/100 $1.60 253.25 2,262/4,600 ($2.00) Matt
Wednesday 203.50 98/100 ($2.00) 224.25 20,183/29,411 ($1.00) Brad
Friday 313.25 18/100 $1.60 283.25 8,836/29,411 ($1.00) Matt
Total 267.75(avg) $2.80 252.75(avg) ($5.00)

DraftKings lineups made a profit this week in 50/50s, cashing three out of four days (+35% ROI). The GPP lineups did not fare as well falling below the cash line all four days.

Overall Results

Below you will see a grid of our results since we changed our process to the new rules where we have more flexibility on who we select from the Industry Consensus list each day.

So far we have used the new process for nine days and the results have been much improved over the previous rules. The Cash game results have improved in particular with positive ROI last week for both the FanDuel and DraftKings lineups and just a small negative ROI overall. As expected GPP results will be more volatile and we will need to get our first “big win” to start to turn a profit in tournaments.

We will look to build on our positive momentum from last week to continue to produce winning lineups this week to start to turn a positive ROI.

FanDuel Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $2.00 $3.60 80.00% $1.00 $2.00 100.00% $3.00 $5.60 86.67%
Stephen $8.00 $5.40 -32.50% $9.00 $4.00 -55.56% $17.00 $9.40 -44.71%
FD Overall $10.00 $9.00 -10.00% $10.00 $6.00 -40.00% $20.00 $15.00 -25.00%
DraftKings
Brad $8.00 $7.20 -10.00% $4.00 $0.00 -100.00% $12.00 $7.20 -40.00%
Matt $10.00 $10.80 8.00% $9.00 $4.00 -55.56% $19.00 $14.80 -22.11%
DK Overall $18.00 $18.00 0.00% $13.00 $4.00 -69.23% $31.00 $22.00 -29.03%
Overall $28.00 $27.00 -3.57% $23.00 $10.00 -56.52% $51.00 $37.00 -27.45%

 

Ownership Percentage Tracking

A part of daily fantasy sports strategy is understanding ownership percentages and being able to predict ownership percentages prior to entering contests especially for GPP tournaments where you might want to be contrarian by selecting lower owned players or fading highly owned players depending on the payout structure and size of the contest.

We had a hypothesis at DailyOverlay that we could utilize the Industry Consensus list to help predict ownership percentages with the assumption being that players who were selected by more experts would likely be higher owned picks in Cash and GPP tournaments.

Below is a preliminary table showing results from the past nine days since we have started to track ownership percentages. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament.

Count Total Cash% GPP%
10 1 72.90% 38.90%
9 5 46.10% 25.14%
8 12 43.96% 23.78%
7 29 29.64% 19.30%
6 28 21.28% 15.83%
5 46 17.95% 15.43%
4 50 15.12% 12.61%
3 68 10.24% 10.52%
2 102 8.15% 8.71%
1 214 3.91% 5.51%

So far our original hypothesis looks to be correct, showing that we might be able to use the Industry Consensus list to help predict ownership percentages. I will look to continue to track this over the remainder of the season and provide some deeper analysis when we have more data.

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