I think my laptop is a little more eye level today after the Thanksgiving holiday.
The grub was great, the family time was fun, my daughter turned two years old on Saturday and it’s back to the full-time work grind today.
We also grind out another solid NBA slate, where we have 8 games and an eff ton of injuries to monitor today.
I am pretty sure the entire Golden State team is injured, so hopefully we have news on Curry, Durant and Draymond well before lock. Ben Simmons also is questionable, plus we have Oladipo and Porzingis who didn’t play over the weekend, but could return to the court tonight. Andre Inguodala is doubtful. RHJ is questionable. Allen Crabbe, Jaylen Brown, Larry Nance, Wes Matthews, Marcus Morris and Enes Kanter are all guys we need to monitor closely tonight.
Hell, I could even see tonight being a scenario where Chris Paul or Harden get some rest with the Rockets facing Brooklyn.
Overall, it’s difficult to make picks this early with so much injury news, but there are a few guys I think stand out that could provide some value should all of the top dogs take the court this evening.
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Let’s saddle up for tonight’s NBA slate!
Analysis: After Pat Bev went down with an injury, Lou Will’s price kept creeping up and up and up, and then he hit $7Ks. Pat Bev returned, then left again. Now Lou’s price is very reasonable for tonight’s matchup against the Lakers, his former team, who is 3rd in pace of play. Williams sports a 29% usage rate, second on the team and runs the point on the second unit.
Analysis: There was no line in this game as of this publication. That is because we aren’t sure of the status of Victor Oladipo. Should he sit, Lance Stephenson becomes the value play of the day. Either way, I like Bogie in this spot once again. He went for 40 DK points against Orlando last time out and is coming off a down performance in his last outing. He’s always way too cheap for a guy that plays 30+ minutes for an up-paced team and has 30-40 point upside each night. I like Bogie in up-paced games and here we are.
Analysis: Night in and night out Kevin Love is a model of consistency. He averages 1.11 fantasy points per minute and is second on the team in usage behind guess who. The Cavs take on the Sixers in what could be a matchup with fireworks. The crafty veterans (LeBron, Wade, Love) versus the new crop of up-and-coming talent (Embiid and Simmons). Hopefully Simmons suits up for the fans sake, but for DFS purposes, Love, who plays the five with Tristan Thompson on the shelf gets a tough, but very exploitable matchup against Joel Embiid (assuming he plays, too). The Sixers are fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers and Love can run around all over the court. While Embiid is very athletic, I don’t think he can chase Love around the perimeter. Love only took 6 shots in his last outing, but I expect him to get back to his usual 13-15 shots. The Sixers are 4th in pace of play, meaning more rebounding and shot opportunities as well.
Analysis: I know the Mavs face the Spurs, but Barnes is mispriced against San Antonio that is without its start player and defender at the SF position. Barnes has been a usage monster for the Mavs this season. AT 28% usage, he is second on the team and is consistently putting up 30-40 fantasy points. He’s put on a show against the Spurs once this season, so why not again? Barnes has really started to come into his own as a reliable scorer and defender. Barnes starts at the 3 but can play the four if needed, and LMA cannot defend Barnes if he does drop down to that position at times.
Analysis: Pat Beverly, one of the best defenders in basketball, started in the first matchup between the Lakers and Clippers. For some reason, Lonzo Ball has been a solid player for me in DFS when I roster him. Yea, he can’t shoot, but he can only get better at that. Ball is like Rajon Rondo right now, can’t show or really defend, but he hustles for rebounds, can create opportunities for his teammates and then if he scores some, that’s the bonus. Triple-double upside every night and his floor is rising. HIs price is too cheap for the upside he provides.
Analysis: Jordan lit up the Lakers in the first matchup for 20 rebounds and double-digit points. He’s cheaper tonight than he’s been at times this season. The Lakers are a pace-up team for the Clippers, but they allow a lot of rebounds and don’t have a body to truly put on DeAndre in the paint. Jordan has a low usage rate on the team, but he will be set up for a lot of easy shots with offensive rebounds and a constant mismatch against center Brook Lopez, who doesn’t and can’t play defense. The Lakers are 8th in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers, giving up almost 30 points and 20 rebounds per game.
Analysis: Out of 3 games last year against the Pacers, who have a lot of the same personnel this year in the frontcourt as last year, Vucevic posted double-doubles. In the game he didn’t, he didn’t get there because of his scoring, not rebounds. In one game against Indy in 2017, Vooch put up nearly 50 fantasy points in only 28 minutes. The Pacers are 6th overall in fantasy points allowed to the five position. Thad Young, Al Jefferson and Myles Turner can’t guard Vooch (and he can’t guard them), so his scoring ability plus rebound potential really stand out in what should be a close, high-scoring game like earlier this year.