Wow! Friday night’s 14-game slate features a ton of pitchers that all rate out about the same in my model, so I had to put in more time and digging than any other day this season to find the right pitchers to roster tonight. With so many potential options, tonight would be a good night to spread out your exposure more than usual and maybe take a few extra swings in some GPPs with your favorite hitter stacks and just change up the pitcher. It is also an Adam Conley Day so see below if I recommend him or not. With that, I have no Ace recommendations tonight but load up with three Value options and two Darkhorse candidates.

Also, nice to get back on track on Wednesday by picking the top ace of the night and also proving that my “gut” triumphed over BvP with my strong call of Hector Santiago.

Let’s get to it…

Value

Lance McCullers (FD-$8,700 / DK-$8,900)

If you aren’t going to spread out your exposure tonight and want to go with just one guy than McCullers tops my list. He will be pitching at home where he has been lights out so far in his career with a 2.00 ERA, .263 wOBA allowed and massive 29.6% strikeout rate. He will be facing a Reds’ team that has struck out 23.0% (8th worst) and rank in the bottom five in wOBA and wRC+ against righties this season. McCullers should also have a good chance for a win as a big home favorite. McCullers is strong Cash and GPP option on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Joe Ross (FD-$8,500 / DK-$9,400)

Ross is a solid option tonight thanks to his matchup against the Padres in San Diego. The Padres rank in the bottom four in K%, wOBA, ISO and wRC+ against righties this season and while Ross doesn’t have huge strikeout upside he did register eight punchouts in his last outing against the Phillies. Ross will also have a good chance for a win as a road favorite. Ross is a solid Cash game option on both sites but might not have the upside to be a good GPP option.

Masahiro Tanaka (FD-$9,400 / DK-$8,300)

Tanaka will be pitching on the road in Minnesota tonight. He has pitched better on the road during his career with a 2.91 ERA and has pitched much better on the road this season with a 1.36 ERA. Tanaka hasn’t produced many strikeouts this season but should see a small increase facing a Twins’ team that has struck out 22.6% (10th worst) against righties this season. Tanaka is also a decent favorite being opposed by the Twins’ rookie Pat Dean. Tanaka is a good Cash game option on both sites but has limited upside needed for GPPs.

Darkhorse

Robbie Ray (FD-$7,300 / DK-$8,400)

Ray is one of my favorite upside pitchers on the slate tonight. He has recorded 10.17 K/9 this season and gets a favorable matchup against a Phillies team that has struck out 23.6% (8th worst) against lefties. The downside for Ray is that he walks too many hitters but he could be able to limit his walks tonight with the Phillies walking just 7.4% (8th lowest) this season. The Phillies also rank as the second worst offensive in wOBA, ISO and wRC+ against lefties. Ray is an excellent GPP option on both sites and potential Cash game option if your willing to take on a little more risk.

Adam Conley (FD-$7,900 / DK-$6,200)

For tonight’s “Adam Conley Whisperer” segment, I recommend that you limit your exposure to him to just GPPs on DraftKings. He takes on the Rockies outside of Coors Field but will face off against Jonathan Gray limiting his chance for a win. Conley’s biggest positive tonight is his strikeout upside facing a Rockies’ offense that has struck out 24.3% (5th worst) against lefties this season. He will need to limit his walks so he can pitch deeper into the game but the Rockies do take quite a few walks (9.2%) which could make that difficult. Not a ringing endorsement tonight but with a low $6,200 price tag on DraftKings he is worth a flier in a GPP lineup or two.

On the Hill – Results

Wednesday

Type Pitcher DK $ DK Pts Grade
Ace Noah Syndergaard 11700 39.75 A+
Value Marco Estrada 10900 22.00 B
Value Nathan Karns 8000 19.65 C
Dark Hector Santiago 5200 23.10 A+


Season

Type A+ A B C D F Tot DK Cost DK Pts DO Score
Ace 19 6 4 5 1 6 41 $11,685 25.15 5.93
Value 16 10 10 22 2 22 82 $8,451 16.40 3.49
Dark 18 4 5 5 1 11 44 $6,639 17.40 5.14
  • DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
  • DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
  • DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type

Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.

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