Welcome to another week of “On the Hill” articles with DFS pitcher recommendations. Today features a solid nine-game slate of games including a couple of aces squaring off against each other and some solid value options to choose from.

Ace

Jose Fernandez (FD-$10,900 / DK-$12,800)

Fernandez will face the Giants Johnny Cueto in a matchup of the top two pitchers on the slate. I am backing Fernandez, in Cash games in particular. Fernandez secures a high floor due to his strikeout ability posting a massive 36.4% strikeout rate this season. He has also pitched better at home this season with a 2.11 ERA while allowing just a .244 wOBA. Fernandez isn’t the biggest favorite on the night due to his opposing pitcher but he still has a good chance for a win. Fernandez is my top Cash game option but could be worth fading in GPPs and pivoting to Cueto or another lower priced option.

Value

Zach Davies (FD-$8,200 / DK-$8,600)

Davies has been very solid for the Brewers this season and has pitched very well recently posting a 1.97 ERA with four wins over his last five starts. He doesn’t have big strikeout upside and will be facing a Braves’ team that only strikes out 19.8% of the time against righties. The Braves offense has performed better lately but still rank at the bottom in the league in wRC+, wOBA and ISO against righties this season. Davies is a solid Cash game option but has limited upside for GPPs.

Michael Wacha (FD-$7,300 / DK-$6,500)

Wacha profiles similar to Davies tonight. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last 10 starts posting a 3.45 ERA during that stretch with a 7.2 K/9. Wacha comes in as one of the biggest favorites pitching at home against the Reds who rank in the bottom 10 in wOBA and wRC+ against righties this season. Wacha has also had some success against the Reds earlier this season pitching six innings of one-run baseball with five strikeouts. Wacha is a great cheap Cash game option as a #2 pitcher on two-pitcher sites.

Darkhorse

Julio Urias (FD-$7,000 / DK-$6,800)

Urias is the biggest wild card on the slate today. The Dodgers are the biggest Vegas favorite and are facing the Phillies who strikeout 23.1% (9th worst) of the time against lefties and are in the bottom two in ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The biggest question mark is how deep into the game can Urias go with six innings as his longest outing in the majors. Urias is a great GPP option due to his high ceiling and low price tag.

On the Hill – Results

Friday

Type Pitcher DK $ DK Pts Grade
Ace Noah Syndergaard 11200 14.10 D
Value Jon Lester 9600 28.15 A
Value Blake Snell 8700 20.40 B
Dark Francisco Liriano 7100 14.10 D

 

Season

Type A+ A B C D F Tot DK Cost DK Pts DO Score
Ace 33 7 5 6 5 8 64 $11,891 24.04 6.20
Value 25 15 14 32 7 34 127 $8,691 15.94 3.45
Dark 22 10 6 8 8 14 68 $6,640 16.08 4.59
  • DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
  • DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
  • DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type

Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.

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