It was a great week to play Cleveland Indians in your lineups. Well, it was a great first half of the week to play Cleveland Indians. The Tribe bombarded Reds’ pitching to the tune 43 runs in four games. Nothing changed in the top-2 of our MLB Expert Grading Chart but Stephen and his BvP for MVP article managed to climb back into the third slot. Rotocurve joined those three as the only other expert with a DailyOveraly score north of 3.0 for the season. We should note one small change in that we are now grading the paid picks for DailyFantasyCafe. Let’s see if that enables them to climb out of the bottom half of the season-long standings. Also, you will notice that we have added Ownership Tracking info by position at the bottom of the article. We will dive into this a bit deeper over the next week to see if there are specific trends that can be noted.

In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one expert, but produced an “A+” grade. We will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.

As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the MLB Industry Consensus articles and MLB Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first pitch of the first game to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.

Overall Leaderboard

The top-3 overall are below. Brad and DailyRoto continue to occupy the top-2 spots. Guess who’s back at #3? It’s Stephen! The BvP for MVP article make a big jump this week to climb back above the 3.0 threshold and into the 3rd slot.

#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 3.85) still stands atop the mountain. Brad stayed flat this week but still maintains a wide gap between himself and the rest of the competition.

#2) DailyRoto (Score: 3.15) saw a teenie-tiny uptick of .01 for the week and continues to sit comfortably in the 2nd slot. Last week, DailyRoto was the only expert outside of Brad to have a DO score above 3.0; however, this week they have a couple of folks nipping at their heels.

#3) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 3.09) reenters the top-3 this week with a big jump up to 3.09. Stephen found himself in a bit of a tailspin last week but, just like an expert pilot, pulled himself out of it.

Week in Review

Monday (May 16th)

Two really high scores and a bunch of low ones. Six experts landed below the 2.0 threshold.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus finshed right in the middle of the pack which seems to be pretty commonplace. A 2.36 score will slot you in 8th for a Monday.

A+ – Jonathon Niese, Robbie Ray, Steve Pearce, Jake Lamb, J.D. Martinez
F – Eighteen of the 33 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Rotocurve (Score: 5.00) had a big week and slid into 4th overall. The rise began on Monday as two of their three picks finished at “A” or better

#2) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 4.25) continued his strong season. Brad seems to find himself in the top-2 on a regular basis.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Chris Herrmann (Moxyball – Cheat Sheet)

Tuesday (May 17th)

A big day on Tuesday for the experts. Ten of our 17 pickers finished above 3.0 including two that finished above a 5.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus tied for 11th on Tuesday with a 2.61 score. The score wasn’t awful but it was a solid day for most of our guys.

A+ – Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, Travis Shaw, Robinson Cano, Miguel Sano
F – A total of 15 of the 33 picks finished in the failing category.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 6.60) found his way to the top of the heap. That has not happened too often but three of his five picks finished with an “A+”. The 6-Pack was the lone expert to play Yung Joc on Tuesday.

#2) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 5.43) hauled in a 2nd place finish on Tuesday. Three of Stephen’s seven picks finished with an “A+” grade.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Tyler White (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Adrian Beltre (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Joc Pederson (RotoGrinders 6-Pack)
A+ – Francisco Cervelli (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Andrew McCutchen (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Danny Valencia (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Ian Desmond (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Kyle Seager (Scout)
A+ – Zack Greinke (FantasyPros)
A+ – Brad Miller (FantasyPros)
A+ – John Jaso (DailyFantasyCafe)

Wednesday (May 18th)

A lot of below average scores for the day on Wednesday. Fourteen of our 17 experts scored below 3.0 with seven not even hitting the 2.0 threshold.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus posted a 2.24 which was good for 9th.

A+ – Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Francisco Lindor, Jacoby Ellsbury
F – Fifteen of the 37 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 4.50) topped the experts on Wednesday as half of his four picks finished with an “A” or better grade.

#2) DailyFantasyCafe (Score: 3.14) comes in 2nd for the day. We made a switch this week and started grading DFC’s paid picks so we may start seeing them up towards the top more often. They were the lone expert to play Edwin Encarnacion and his “A+” grade.

Sleepers of the Day

A+ – Mike Trout (DailyRoto)
A+ – Nick Tropeano (FantasyPros)
A+ – Chris Rusin (FantasyPros)
A+ – Adam Wainwright (FantasyPros)
A+ – Edwin Encarnacion (DailyFantasyCafe)

Friday (May 20th)

Not a bad way to end the week for some of the experts. Seven guys finished above 3.0 with two of them scoring above 4.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus limped to a 12th place finish for Friday. A 2.44 score and exactly half the selections finished with failing grades.

A+ – Jake Arrieta, Aaron Sanchez, Jason Kipnis, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Kris Bryant, Michael Conforto
F – Eighteen of the 36 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Rotocurve (Score: 4.89) finished the week strong. Four of their nine selections finished with “A+” grade.

#2) FantasyTeamAdvice (Score: 4.20) found themselves with a silver medal after Friday. Four of their ten selections finished with an “A” or better.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Justin Turner (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Josh Donaldson (DailyRoto)
A+ – Mark Trumbo (Scout)
A+ – Dan Straily (FantasyPros)
A+ – Dillon Gee (FantasyPros)

Consensus Lineup Construction Review

It was not a bad week for the Lineup Construction. It wasn’t perfect but it was certainly serviceable. Brad managed to find the money all four days with his Cash linuep. Unfortunately, he continues to struggle a bit on the GPP side. Stephen shifted strategy and submitted the same lineup for both Cash and GPP on FantasyAces. It didn’t work out well on Monday and Tuesday; however, it paid off the last two days this week as he found the money in Cash and GPP on Wednesday and Friday. Yours truly took a step back after a big last week. I just barely missed the cash line with my Cash lineup on Friday. If I would have hit that, the week would have looked a bit better.

Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:

  1. Matt will make two separate lineups for FanDuel and Brad will do the same for DraftKings, one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments. Stephen will now provide a FantasyAces Cash and GPP lineup for at least two days each week. Stephen will use the same lineup for both Cash and GPP.
  2. For Cash games, we will try to build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in. This has proven a bit difficult to get a top-tier pitcher in our lineups by using only Consensus plays. For that reason, we now have tweaked the rules a bit and allow for one off the board play in the Cash game format.
  3. For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
  4. We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.

Weekly/Overall Results

FanDuel

Not a profitable week on the FanDuel side of things. Finding the money with the Cash lineup on Friday would have helped, as I mentioned above. Still fighting to get back on the positive side of the ROI meter for the season.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 94.9 80/100 ($2.00) 45.2 5,459/5,780 ($2.00) Matt
Tuesday 194 9/100 $1.60 127 2,291/4,624 ($2.00) Matt
Wednesday 107.6 67/100 ($2.00) 154.7 489/3,468 $3.00 Matt
Friday 112.8 52/100 ($2.00) 83.1 38,923/48,169 ($3.00) Matt

DraftKings

What a picture perfect left side of the infograph for Brad this week. He has really found a groove in the Cash game over the past few weeks. It’s been awhile since he’s finished in the money on the GPP side of things but he’ll turn it around soon. If you’re looking for a lineup that can consistently cash in the 50/50 and Double Up formats, Brad’s lineups are a pretty solid starting point.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 96.9 50/100 $1.60 119 500/2,352 ($1.00) Brad
Tuesday 178.85 10/100 $1.60 111.05 7,680/14,705 ($1.00) Brad
Wednesday 120 35/100 $1.60 123.8 2,909/14,705 ($1.00) Brad
Friday 96.3 32/100 $1.60 84.7 10,821/17,647 ($1.00) Brad

FantasyAces

There’s the Stephen that I know. He finally put together a good run to end the week. Stephen shifted strategy a bit and offered up one lineup each day which he played in both formats. After Tuesday he may have been questioning his strategy but it certainly paid off to end the week.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 54 211/300 ($1.10) 54 617/1,000 ($2.75) Stephen
Tuesday 64 267/300 ($1.10) 64 668/1,000 ($2.75) Stephen
Wednesday 71.5 38/245 $0.90 71.5 100/700 $2.25 Stephen
Friday 65.5 32/300 $0.90 65.5 113/1,000 $4.75 Stephen

The grid below shows a recap of the results so far this season. We basically stayed completely flat with our overall ROI for the season. Still too many negatives though but we are headed in the right direction. Stephen got his FantasyAces troubles ironed out at the end of the week. Brad is a machine when it comes to the Cash game and I have been all over the board a bit. Consistency is key and we are starting to see more of it.

FanDuel Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Matt $52.00 $46.80 -10.0% $55.00 $52.51 -4.5% $107.00 $99.31 -7.2%
Stephen $9.00 $12.60 40.0% $10.00 $8.50 -15.0% $19.00 $21.10 11.1%
FD Overall $61.00 $59.40 -2.6% $65.00 $61.01 -6.1% $126.00 $120.41 -4.4%
DraftKings Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $58.00 $54.00 -6.9% $29.00 $25.00 -13.8% $87.00 $79.00 -9.2%
DK Overall $58.00 $54.00 -6.9% $29.00 $25.00 -13.8% $87.00 $79.00 -9.2%
FantasyAces Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Stephen $11.00 $6.00 -45.5% $27.50 $22.50 -18.2% $38.50 $28.50 -26.0%
FA Overall $11.00 $6.00 -45.5% $27.50 $22.50 -18.2% $38.50 $28.50 -26.0%
Overall $130.00 $119.40 -8.2% $121.50 $108.51 -10.7% $251.50 $227.91 -9.4%

 

Ownership Percentage Tracking

We had a hypothesis at DailyOverlay that we could utilize the Industry Consensus list to help predict ownership percentages with the assumption being that players who were selected by more experts would likely be higher owned picks in Cash and GPP tournaments.

Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked so far this season. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.Displaying MLB-Ownership-Week1.bmp

In addition to the Overall Ownership chart, we have added a couple of items this week. We broke down ownership percentage by position for the Cash and GPP. You can find those charts below as well.

Overall

Count Cash% GPP% Total
14 68.10% 42.00% 1
13 49.60% 28.40% 1
12 75.50% 45.87% 3
11 56.00% 34.48% 4
10 53.49% 36.88% 9
9 44.38% 27.18% 26
8 37.27% 23.14% 42
7 35.67% 23.19% 52
6 23.58% 16.82% 85
5 22.13% 16.64% 145
4 15.01% 12.13% 228
3 10.03% 9.53% 312
2 6.43% 7.06% 571
1 0.0294 0.0382 1191

Cash by Position

Count SP C 1B 2B SS 3B OF Total
14 68.10% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 68.10%
13 49.60% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 49.60%
12 75.50% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 75.50%
11 58.87% N/A 47.40% N/A N/A N/A N/A 56.00%
10 56.39% N/A N/A N/A 26.50% N/A 60.20% 53.49%
9 54.11% N/A 36.27% 26.95% 49.70% 30.95% 33.83% 44.38%
8 27.34% 29.07% 33.52% 48.19% 32.75% 41.90% 54.10% 37.27%
7 35.48% 35.10% 15.00% 29.32% 38.88% 39.82% 37.17% 35.67%
6 23.83% 21.84% 18.18% 22.10% 17.95% 25.95% 28.47% 23.58%
5 22.41% 24.36% 19.69% 17.80% 20.18% 18.07% 26.41% 22.13%
4 14.11% 15.82% 12.48% 11.17% 13.63% 14.44% 19.80% 15.01%
3 11.81% 11.04% 9.37% 8.81% 10.79% 7.73% 10.59% 10.03%
2 7.94% 5.63% 4.82% 5.43% 6.64% 4.76% 7.93% 6.43%
1 3.27% 4.03% 2.24% 2.90% 2.77% 2.15% 3.21% 2.94%

GPP by Position

Count SP C 1B 2B SS 3B OF Total
14 42.00% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.00%
13 28.40% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 28.40%
12 45.87% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.87%
11 37.90% N/A 24.20% N/A N/A N/A N/A 34.48%
10 40.93% N/A N/A N/A 17.10% N/A 28.30% 36.88%
9 35.41% N/A 15.50% 17.20% 31.18% 13.55% 21.10% 27.18%
8 23.15% 17.38% 18.92% 23.18% 18.60% 19.85% 39.52% 23.14%
7 24.92% 20.13% 9.30% 18.28% 23.05% 23.60% 24.19% 23.19%
6 20.59% 16.73% 13.91% 14.50% 13.27% 16.07% 17.46% 16.82%
5 19.22% 16.85% 14.07% 14.01% 16.84% 13.84% 18.06% 16.64%
4 14.16% 14.95% 9.33% 9.97% 12.93% 10.44% 13.58% 12.13%
3 12.11% 10.78% 6.57% 9.07% 10.81% 8.00% 9.71% 9.53%
2 10.33% 7.30% 5.77% 6.15% 6.94% 5.41% 7.49% 7.06%
1 5.82% 3.98% 3.08% 3.74% 3.21% 3.12% 3.99% 3.82%

This is definitely some interesting info on the positional breakdown. Is it useful? We have not put a lot of time into looking into the data yet. We will look a little more in depth this week at it to see if anything sticks out. As always, we will continue to provide this info as long as it is insightful.

 

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