Some moving and shaking from the experts this week. We have a new leader in the clubhouse in our season-long standings. Drumroll please….it’s Brad and his On the Hill article which you can find right here at Daily Overlay every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. We had a bit of a rough week for our Lineup Construction articles, though one of us was able to cash on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. A total of six of the 17 experts are sitting at 3.0 or better for the season, which is pretty solid.

In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one or two experts, but produced an “A+” grade. We will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.

As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the MLB Industry Consensus articles and MLB Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first pitch of the first game to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.

Overall Leaderboard

I’ll lay out the top-3 for the season below. We had a flip-flop at the top but our two in-house guys, Brad and Stephen are still leading the pack..

#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 3.40) stole the top spot from his counterpart. A really solid week from Brad this week. If you haven’t checked out his plays, do so this week. He’s not just picking the top aces every night, he’s providing some solid value plays…which are key, especially in the GPP format.

#2) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 3.19) took a step back this week. Stephen hit his first rough stretch this week but has still managed to put together a solid start to 2016. I expect him to bounce back in a big way starting tomorrow.

#3) DailyRoto (Score: 3.14) maintains their spot in 3rd. There are a couple of folks gaining on them so let’s keep an eye on the race for the bronze.

Week in Review

Monday (April 18th)

Some good and some bad last Monday. Three experts finished with scores above 4.0; however, we also had three that finished with sub-2.0 scores.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Industry Consensus finished in 8th for the day with a score of 2.67.

A+ – John Lackey, Trevor Story, Hector Santiago
F – Jonathan Lucroy, Joey Votto, Brett Lawrie, Jay Bruce, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Cozart, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Yunel Escobar, Hunter Pence

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Rotocurve (Score: 5.67) topped the leaderboard for the first time. Three picks and none finished lower than a “C” including an “A+” from Santiago.

#2) Moxyball – Cheat Sheet (Score: 4.50) took home the silver on Monday. Eight total picks and five finished at “A” or better.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Giancarlo Stanton (DailyRoto)
A+ – Lucas Duda (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Jake Lamb (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Jean Segura (Scout)
A+ – Byung Ho Park (ESPN Daily Notes)
A+ – Ben Paulsen (DK Playbook)

Tuesday (April 19th)

A bit of a tough day on Tuesday. The top score on the day was 3.50. Seven of our 17 experts finished the day below 2.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
Still a top-10 finish on the day for the Consensus. Tenth place of the 17 experts with a score of 2.29 and way to many failing grades to count.

A+ – Stephen Strasburg, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Altuve, Manny Machado, George Springer, Logan Verrett
F – A total of 21 of the 35 picks finished in the failing category.

Top Experts of the Day
#1A) DailyFantasySportsRankings.com (Score: 3.50) finished tied for the top spot on Tuesday. Four of their fourteen picks brought home an “A” or better.

#1B) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 3.50) made up the other half of the tie. This is the first time BeerMaker has made an appearance as he finds himself at the bottom of the season totem pole. Half of his six picks finished “A” or better.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Bryce Harper (DailyRoto)
A+ – Robbie Ray (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Neil Walker (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Mat Latos (Rotocurve)
A+ – Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Fantasy Pros)

Wednesday (April 20th)

A solid day from the experts with no out of this world scores and no duds. Eleven of the 17 experts finished in the 3.0-4.0 range on Wednesday.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus was one of those eleven in that range for the day with a 3.43 score. That score was good for 5th on the day and the best showing the Consensus has had since week one.

A+ – Drew Pomeranz, Lucas Duda, Jonathan Lucroy, David Ortiz, Ryan Braun, Yoenis Cespedes, Domingo Santana, Rougned Odor, Matt Kemp
F – A total of 14 Consensus plays finished below the failing line.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) FantasyWired (Score: 5.00) hauls in the top spot for Wednesday. Three “A+’s” and three “F’s” made up the scorecard for the day. They were the only expert to select Jordan Zimmermann.

#2) FantasyTeamAdvice (Score: 3.90) came in second on Wednesday. Of their ten picks, five finished at “B” or better.

Sleepers of the Day

A+ – Rick Porcello (Rotocurve)
A+ – Jordan Zimmermann (FantasyWired)

Friday (April 22nd)

Some good and some bad to end the week. Three experts finished above 4.0 while four experts finished below 2.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
Not a great way to end the week with a 2.39 score and an 11th place finish for the day.

A+ – Aaron Nola, Jeff Samardzija, Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo
F – Eighteen of the 36 picks finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 6.83) finished off the week with the top spot. When four of your six picks finish with an “A+”, you’re bound to have a good day. Maybe he’ll keep up the pace and pull himself out of the bottom part of the standings.

#2) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 5.67) took 2nd for the day and makes the only appearance from our in-house guys in the Top Experts section this week.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Maikel Franco (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Chris Coghlan (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Carlos Santana (Scout)
A+ – Darwin Barney (Fantasy Pros)

Consensus Lineup Construction Review

Well it was a rough week for the Lineup Construction. Not one of us turned a profit this week. Even with a rough week, we still managed to have at least one lineup finish in the cash on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. To add to the pain, Brad and I both find ourselves in the red when it comes to season-long ROI. We’ll get back at it on Monday and hopefully can get back to cashing on a daily basis.

Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:

  1. Matt will make two separate lineups for FanDuel and Brad will do the same for DraftKings, one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments. Stephen will bookend the week by providing a FanDuel lineup on Mondays and Fridays..
  2. For Cash games, we will build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in. This was a bit difficult this week with some of the split slates. If we have to go off the board for Cash, we will make sure to use a player that was picked by at least one expert.
  3. For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
  4. We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.

Weekly/Overall Results

FanDuel

It was not a pretty week on the FanDuel side of things. At least it wasn’t a complete flop as we were able to put together two money lineups in the Cash game and one in the GPP format.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 120 46/100 $0.80 120 8,716/23,121 ($1.00) Stephen
Monday 64 95/100 ($2.00) 31 56,706/57,803 ($2.00) Matt
Tuesday 94 59/100 ($2.00) 144 4,782/72,254 $3.68 Matt
Wednesday 153 20/100 $1.60 116 35,308/71,590 ($2.00) Matt
Friday 91 86/100 ($1.00) 116 10,992/23,121 ($1.00) Stephen
Friday 91 89/100 ($2.00) 85 58,921/72,254 ($2.00) Matt

DraftKings

It was an even uglier week for Brad on the DraftKings side of things. He managed to find the money with his Cash game lineup on Monday and his GPP lineup on Tuesday. Other than that, it was a lot of red.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 136.45 4/100 $1.60 122.45 3,974/17,647 ($1.00) Brad
Tuesday 45.95 90/100 ($2.00) 105.3 3,279/17,647 $1.00 Brad
Wednesday 107.85 66/100 ($2.00) 84.3 10,378/11,764 ($1.00) Brad
Friday 89.7 91/100 ($2.00) 105.9 7,418/17,647 ($1.00) Brad

The grid below shows a recap of the results so far this season. As I said, Brad and I have managed to dip into the negative ROI numbers for the season. After we raced out of the gate, we’ve begun to fade back to the field. We’ll get back at it tomorrow and see if we can put some of what we’ve learned to use. These Lineup Construction articles are a great place to start your lineup. Whether you use some of our plays or just use it as a baseline to go off of, they are certainly useful.

FanDuel Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Matt $22.00 $21.60 -1.8% $22.00 $17.51 -20.4% $44.00 $39.11 -11.1%
Stephen $7.00 $10.80 54.3% $8.00 $8.50 6.3% $15.00 $19.30 28.7%
FD Overall $29.00 $32.40 11.7% $30.00 $26.01 -13.3% $59.00 $58.41 -1.0%
DraftKings Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $26.00 $14.40 -44.6% $13.00 $22.00 69.2% $39.00 $36.40 -6.7%
DK Overall $26.00 $14.40 -44.6% $13.00 $22.00 69.2% $39.00 $36.40 -6.7%
Overall $55.00 $46.80 -14.9% $43.00 $48.01 11.7% $98.00 $94.81 -3.3%

Ownership Percentage Tracking

We had a hypothesis at DailyOverlay that we could utilize the Industry Consensus list to help predict ownership percentages with the assumption being that players who were selected by more experts would likely be higher owned picks in Cash and GPP tournaments.

Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked this first two weeks. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.Displaying MLB-Ownership-Week1.bmp

Count Cash% GPP% Total
13 49.60% 28.40% 1
12 N/A N/A N/A
11 60.25% 33.80% 2
10 65.20% 49.27% 3
9 42.50% 29.57% 6
8 37.54% 25.45% 17
7 38.13% 24.08% 25
6 24.25% 17.81% 41
5 25.54% 18.28% 63
4 18.15% 13.29% 92
3 10.11% 9.88% 120
2 7.13% 8.10% 240
1 3.20% 4.25% 466

I think we are sitting about where we thought we would with the ownership percentages. As expected the higher count picks have provided higher ownership percentage in the both formats. Lower ownership in the GPP format, as expected, where it pays to fade some of the overwhelming expert plays. We will keep tracking this as long as it keeps providing us with useful insights.

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