Another week in the books and Brad continues to lead the pack. Come one, come all and don’t forget to tell your friends that Brad’s article is available right here at Daily Overlay throughout the week. We now have a logjam of experts in the 3rd-10th slots with only .15 separating the group. Keep an eye on our MLB Expert Grading Table to find out who ranks where. It was a solid week for our Lineup Construction article with FanDuel cashing big on Monday. In our expert picks, we had several guys show up as sleepers (only picked by one expert) on multiple days. On Wednesday, FantasyPros provided five of our sleeper picks and still couldn’t find their way into the top-2.

In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one or two experts, but produced an “A+” grade. We will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.

As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the MLB Industry Consensus articles and MLB Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first pitch of the first game to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.

Overall Leaderboard

I’ll lay out the top-3 for the season below. Brad managed to further pad his lead at the top and we have a newcomer to the 3rd spot. I guess I should use the phrase newcomer lightly though as Moxyball did top our pitcher selection grades in 2015.

#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 3.85) continues to create distance between himself and the competition. Solid picks and solid analysis behind those picks is what you’ll find from Brad every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday here at Daily Overlay.

#2) DailyRoto (Score: 3.14) hangs on to the 2nd spot in our standings. A bit of a dip in overall score but DR remains comfortably on the podium being the only expert outside of Brad to have a score over 3.0.

#3) Moxyball – Cheat Sheet (Score: 2.96) emerged from the logjam of experts with scores just north of 2.9 to claim the 3rd overall spot.

Week in Review

Monday (May 9th)

A really strong showing out of the gates on Monday. Our lowest score of the day was a 2.5 with our highest being a stellar 8.33. Eight of our sixteen experts finished in the 3.0-4.0 range.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus made a strong showing with a 3.87 score to finish in 6th for the day.

A+ – Jose Fernandez, Aaron Sanchez, Stephen Strasburg, Paul Goldschmidt, Derek Dietrich, Rougned Odor, Jean Segura, Jake Lamb
F – Twelve of the 31 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 8.33) had the best day on Monday. His three selections brought home two “A+” and one “A” grade.

#2) RotoGrinders Consensus (Score: 4.89) used Coors Field to their advantage to haul in eleven “A+” grades of their 27 picks. They were the only expert to play Big Papi.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Carlos Beltran (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – David Ortiz (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Ketel Marte (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Edwin Encarnacion (DK Playbook)
A+ – Todd Frazier (ESPN Daily Notes)
A+ – Dan Straily (FantasyPros)

Tuesday (May 10th)

Quite the opposite of Monday for the experts. Our highest score did not even eclipse the 3.0 threshold and nine of our 17 experts finished below 2.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
Tuesday did not treat the Consensus as kindly. A 1.78 score will get you tied for  13th on the day and punch your overall DO score like Rougned Odor does Joey Bats’ face.

A+ – Adam Morgan, Steve Pearce, Manny Machado
F – A total of 17 of the 32 picks finished in the failing category.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Fantasy Alarm (Score: 2.91) was the best of the worst on Tuesday. Six “A+” grades combated their 13 failing ones to equal out to a pretty crappy score that tops the day. Only expert to select Ben Zobrist and Matt Holliday.

#2) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 2.67) finishes in 2nd even when five of his six picks finished with a “C” or worse grade for the day.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Adam Jones (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Mookie Betts (DailyRoto)
A+ – Ben Zobrist (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Matt Holliday (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Jonathan Villar (Scout)
A+ – JA Happ (FantasyPros)
A+ – Bryan Holaday (FantasyPros)
A+ – Alex Wood (DailyFantasyCafe)
A+ – Randal Grichuk (FantasyPros)

Wednesday (May 11th)

Wednesday was a bit of a mix between the first two days of the week. Four experts finished above 4.0 while six finished at 2.5 or below.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus hauled in a 2.70 score which was good for 10th on Wednesday.

A+ – Max Scherzer, Freddie Freeman, Dustin Pedroia, Jung Ho Kang, Andrew McCuthchen
F – Over half of the selections (14 of 27) finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 5.00) found his way to the top of the leaderboard. Three of his five selections finished with an “A” or better grade.

#2) ESPN Daily Notes (Score: 4.50) makes their first appearance in the daily top-2 this week. Seven of their 12 plays finished with an “A” or better.

Sleepers of the Day

A+ – Carlos Beltran (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Jackie Bradley Jr. (RotoGrinders 6-Pack)
A+ – Tucker Barnhart (FantasyPros)
A+ – Kendrys Morales (FantasyPros)
A+ – David Freese (FantasyPros)
A+ – Corey Seager (FantasyPros)
A+ – Jay Bruce (FantasyPros)

Friday (May 13th)

Another mixed bag to end the week. Nine of our 17 experts finished between 2.0 and 3.0 to close out their week.

Industry Consensus Picks
A really poor showing from the Consensus. Though I guess one could say it wasn’t terrible as the Consensus finished with a 2.12 score; however, that was good for 15th on the day.

A+ – Chris Sale, Chris Tillman, Joe Panik, Troy Tulowitzki, Travis Shaw, Bryce Harper
F – Twenty-four of the 41 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) FantasyWired (Score: 5.50) took the honors on Friday. Three of their six selections finished with an “A+” and a nice close to the week.

#2) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 5.00) found himself in the top-2 for the first time this week. Stephen had three of his six picks finish with an “A+” also.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Jose Altuve (DailyRoto)
A+ – Ketel Marte (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Jackie Bradley Jr. (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Khris Davis (Rotocurve)
A+ – Nelson Cruz (Scout)
A+ – RA Dickey (FantasyPros)
A+ – Yan Gomes (FantasyPros)
A+ – Miguel Sano (FantasyPros)
A+ – Adam Jones (ESPN Daily Notes)

Consensus Lineup Construction Review

Overall, it was a bit of give and take. Things really took off on the FanDuel side on Monday and Tuesday with two Cash game wins and two nice finishes on the GPP side. DraftKings and Fantasy Aces were not as lucky but still produced Cash game winners during the week. We are about to hit our stride…I think!

Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:

  1. Matt will make two separate lineups for FanDuel and Brad will do the same for DraftKings, one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments. Stephen will now provide a FantasyAces Cash and GPP lineup for at least two days each week.
  2. For Cash games, we will try to build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in. This has proven a bit difficult to get a top-tier pitcher in our lineups by using only Consensus plays. For that reason, we now have tweaked the rules a bit and allow for one off the board play in the Cash game format.
  3. For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
  4. We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.

Weekly/Overall Results

FanDuel

A spectacular week on FanDuel. Really needed to get off the schnide and I was able to do so. Monday really set the tone for a big week. I let my big mouth get the best of me on Friday as I boasted about a 4-4 week in the Cash game and then promptly laid an egg. Oh well, I’m back on the positive side of the ROI (barely!) for the first time in awhile.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 179.8 38/100 $1.60 235.4 399/70,194 $20.50 Matt
Tuesday 155 6/100 $1.60 163.2 2,846/48,169 $4.50 Matt
Wednesday 186.5 48/100 $1.60 110.5 34,460/48,169 ($3.00) Matt
Friday 95.3 83/100 ($2.00) 42.4 3,418/3,468 ($3.00) Matt

DraftKings

With the exception of a Cash game win on Monday, it was a tough week for Brad. If Brad sticks with the pitchers he recommends in his “On the Hill” article then pitching will be studly; however, he couldn’t find the right combination of bats to go with it this week.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 159.9 9/100 $1.60 95.3 8,939/17,041 ($1.00) Brad
Tuesday 35.75 96/100 ($2.00) 73.6 11,068/17,647 ($1.00) Brad
Wednesday 102.75 69/100 ($2.00) 113.45 6,909/14,705 ($1.00) Brad
Friday 77.05 78/100 ($2.00) 102.8 3,910/14,705 ($1.00) Brad

FantasyAces

Stephen’s day job got in the way of him filling out a lineup on Monday. Yes, we all still have day jobs but maybe if you tell all your friends to come visit the site we can rectify that. Anywho, back to the Fantasy Aces lineup construction. Stephen managed to find himself in the money with his Cash lineup on Tuesday. Other than that, he was not able to find the pot of gold. Kudos to Stephen for branching out and taking on this Fantasy Aces undertaking though. He’ll get things rolling this week.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Tuesday 47.5 133/294 $0.90 41.75 484/700 ($2.75) Stephen
Friday 46 170/300 ($1.10) 50.5 422/1,000 ($2.75) Stephen

The grid below shows a recap of the results so far this season. As you can see, we are slowly creeping back towards the positive ROI number overall for the season. FanDuel is now returning a positive ROI thanks to my big cash on Monday in the GPP format. As we saw in the NBA, it’s just a matter of time before Brad breaks the bank with a big GPP showing and that Draftkings number will get back in the black. If we can all keep up what we’ve been doing on the Cash game side of things, we’ll stay steady with hopefully a couple nice GPP finishes to boost us.

FanDuel Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Matt $44.00 $43.20 -1.8% $46.00 $47.51 3.3% $90.00 $90.71 0.8%
Stephen $9.00 $12.60 40.0% $10.00 $8.50 -15.0% $19.00 $21.10 11.1%
FD Overall $53.00 $55.80 5.3% $56.00 $56.01 0.0% $109.00 $111.81 2.6%
DraftKings Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $50.00 $39.60 -20.8% $25.00 $25.00 0.0% $75.00 $64.60 -13.9%
DK Overall $50.00 $39.60 -20.8% $25.00 $25.00 0.0% $75.00 $64.60 -13.9%
FantasyAces Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Stephen $6.60 $2.00 -69.7% $16.50 $10.00 -39.4% $23.10 $12.00 -48.1%
FA Overall $6.60 $2.00 -69.7% $16.50 $10.00 -39.4% $23.10 $12.00 -48.1%
Overall $109.60 $97.40 -11.1% $97.50 $91.01 -6.7% $207.10 $188.41 -9.0%

Ownership Percentage Tracking

We had a hypothesis at DailyOverlay that we could utilized the Industry Consensus list to help predict ownership percentages with the assumption being that players who were selected by more experts would likely be higher owned picks in Cash and GPP tournaments.

Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked this first two weeks. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.Displaying MLB-Ownership-Week1.bmp

Count Cash% GPP% Total
13 49.60% 28.40% 1
12 82.30% 49.65% 2
11 61.10% 35.47% 3
10 54.74% 37.99% 7
9 44.93% 28.52% 18
8 39.12% 24.05% 37
7 34.80% 23.18% 43
6 24.63% 17.06% 74
5 23.17% 16.95% 130
4 15.43% 12.43% 197
3 10.29% 9.80% 257
2 6.62% 7.18% 496
1 2.94% 3.84% 1004

Same story with the ownership percentages this week. Now that we’ve laid a solid baseline, we may look to break it out by position. Stay tuned on that one. For those of you wondering, this is a handy tool when determining who might be a nice contrarian play in either format. We will keep tracking this as long as it keeps providing us with useful insights.

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