We officially have one month in the books. With that, we are now able to see a bit of separation between the top expert pickers and those that are middle-of-the-road and bad. There are two that have really created a nice gap between themselves and the competition and that is our own Brad with his “On the Hill” article and the folks over at DailyRoto. You can find the full list of expert grades so far this season in our MLB Expert Grading Table.

In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one or two experts, but produced an “A+” grade. We will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.

As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the MLB Industry Consensus articles and MLB Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first pitch of the first game to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.

Overall Leaderboard

I’ll lay out the top-3 for the season below. After one whole month of baseball, we are starting to see who the top-tier of experts is. Brad maintains his stranglehold on the lead with a huge week that saw him pad his lead considerably.

#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 3.77) widened the gap between himself and the next best expert. Brad had a great week and saw his score bump to a shiny 3.77. I’ll say it again this week, if you are not reading his On the Hill article then you don’t want to win money.

#2) DailyRoto (Score: 3.24) stayed flat this week with their 3.24 score and their 2nd place standing. Pretty amazing that they could stay completely flat with their score considering the high volume of picks that they submit each day. Just as impressive is that they can maintain such a high score while submitting that high volume of picks.

#3) DK Playbook (Score: 2.97) makes their debut in the top-3 this week. For the first time, our 3rd place expert has a score below 3.0. DK Playbook has made a steady rise these last couple of weeks.

Week in Review

Monday (May 2nd)

Not a pretty start to May for the experts on Monday. Only two of our 16 finished north of the 3.0 mark while nine finished below 2.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
Even with a score of 1.83, the Consensus finished tied for 7th on the day. That is a pretty good indication of how poorly everyone performed.

A+ – Jon Gray, Yoenis Cespedes, Bartolo Colon
F – Twenty of the 35 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Rotocurve (Score: 3.67) had the best day on Monday. Three selections, all pitchers, that brought home an “A+”, a “D” and a failing grade.

#2) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 3.25) comes in 2nd for the day with an “A+”, a “B” and two failing grades.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Eduardo Nunez (FantasyPros)
A+ – Joey Votto (DailyRoto)

Tuesday (May 3rd)

A solid day with five of our 16 finishing at 3.0 or better including a 6.25 from Brad’s “On the Hill” article. With good comes bad, as well, with five experts finishing below 2.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
A much better score on Tuesday for the Consensus but a lower finish for the day. The 2.45 score placed them in 8th on Tuesday.

A+ – Jose Quintana, Buster Posey, Welington Castillo, Rougned Odor, Danny Santana
F – A total of 15 of the 31 picks finished in the failing category.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 6.25) scored two “A+’s” and an “A” with three of his four picks. I said from the top that Brad had a great week and I wasn’t lying!

#2) Rotocurve (Score: 3.90) flip-flopped with Brad on Tuesday for a 2nd place finish. Ten total selections on the day and five finished with an “A” or better including being the only expert to play Marcell Ozuna.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – George Springer (DailyRoto)
A+ – Steve Pearce (RotoGrinders 6-Pack)
A+ – Jason Castro (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Marcell Ozuna (Rotocurve)
A+ – Trayce Thompson (DK Playbook)
A+ – Jose Abreu (FantasyPros)
A+ – Aaron Nola (ESPN Daily Notes)
A+ – Matt Kemp (ESPN Daily Notes)

Wednesday (May 4th)

A middle of the road day with three experts posting scores of 3.0 or better. Eleven of our 17 experts finished with scores between 2.0 and 3.0 on Wednesday.

Industry Consensus Picks
A 12th place finish for the Consensus with a score of 2.21.

A+ – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
F – A total of seventeen of the 33 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Rotocurve (Score: 3.50) scored another top spot for the week for their day on Wednesday. Two “A+” grades propelled them to the top of the list as their other four picks all finished with a “D” or worse.

#2) DailyRoto (Score: 3.14) makes their first appearance in the daily top-2 this week. Eleven of their 29 plays finished with an “A” or better grade. DR was the only expert site to play Giancarlo Stanton.

Sleepers of the Day

A+ – Jacoby Ellsbury (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Giancarlo Stanton (DailyRoto)
A+ – Brandon Guyer (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – David Ortiz (DailyFantasyCafe)

Friday (May 6th)

A really nice end to the week for the experts. Eight of our 17 pickers finished above the 4.0 threshold!

Industry Consensus Picks
A really nice end to the week for the Consensus; however, the 4.14 score placed the Consensus in 7th place for the day. That’s a great indication of how hot the picks were on Friday.

A+ – Madison Bumgarner, Danny Salazar, Joey Votto, Jose Abreu, David Ortiz, Brandon Phillips, Carlos Correa, Alex Presley, Jose Bautista
F – Wei-Yin Chen, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Jonathan Villar, Corey Seager, Todd Frazier, Miguel Sano, Ryan Braun, Seth Smith

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 7.33) rocketed to another 1st place finish on Friday. Of Brad’s three picks, two (Bumgarner and Salazar) finished with “A+” grades.

#2) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 5.33) rounded out the week with a solid 5.33 score. Three of his six plays finished with an “A+” grade.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Melky Cabrera (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Byung-Ho Park (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Xander Bogaerts (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Brandon Drury (Scout)
A+ – Ian Kinsler (DK Playbook)
A+ – Matt Duffy (FantasyPros)
A+ – Corey Dickerson (FantasyPros)

Consensus Lineup Construction Review

A pretty up and down week for us here at DO. Brad and I fared pretty well on the Cash game side of the action where we finished in the money a total of 6 of 8 times. Things on the GPP side were bruuuutal though as we did not cash one time this week. Stephen began posting a lineup for FantasyAces this week and got off to a rough start. He finished the week nicely with a $7.25 profit with his GPP lineup on Friday.

Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:

  1. Matt will make two separate lineups for FanDuel and Brad will do the same for DraftKings, one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments. Stephen will now provide a FantasyAces lineup for at least two days each week.
  2. For Cash games, we will try to build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in. This has proven a bit difficult to get a top-tier pitcher in our lineups by using only Consensus plays. For that reason, we now have tweaked the rules a bit and allow for one off the board play in the Cash game format.
  3. For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
  4. We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.

Weekly/Overall Results

FanDuel

The Cash game was rolling this week as I finished in the money three of the four days. On the other hand, the GPP was an 0-fer. I will say that I finished just outside the money on Monday and Friday. Haven’t cashed in a GPP in awhile so let’s get back on track this week. FanDuel changed up their GPP pricing this week and there are now $1 and $3 tournaments instead of the $1 and $2 options.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 87.9 68/100 ($2.00) 136.3 1,663/7,707 ($3.00) Matt
Tuesday 119.2 14/100 $1.60 19.2 23,040/23,121 ($1.00) Matt
Wednesday 149.9 28/100 $1.60 98.4 31,926/38,535 ($3.00) Matt
Friday 142.7 27/100 $1.60 130 1,673/9,248 ($1.00) Matt

DraftKings

Brad had a very similar week to myself on the DraftKings side. Brad cashed on three of four Cash games and went 0-fer on the GPP side, too.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 73.35 50/100 $1.60 67.8 11,662/14,705 ($1.00) Brad
Tuesday 123.95 4/100 $1.60 53.6 13,606/14,705 ($1.00) Brad
Wednesday 91.2 70/100 ($2.00) 76.9 10,363/11,764 ($1.00) Brad
Friday 150.55 3/100 $1.60 114 3,815/14,705 ($1.00) Brad

FantasyAces

We debuted our FantasyAces lineups this week as Stephen dove in head first. We’ve yet to finalize whether we will do this all four days or if Stephen will do the Monday & Friday thing, similar to what he was doing with FanDuel previously. Stephen did not get off to a good start but did end the week with a bang in the GPP format on Friday. In my experience with FantasyAces, it does play a little different than either FD or DK so I think Stephen will get the ball rolling this week.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 41.25 157/300 ($1.10) 53.75 249/700 ($2.75) Stephen
Tuesday 43.25 199/300 ($1.10) 42 476/700 ($2.75) Stephen
Wednesday 51.75 186/250 ($1.10) 50.75 412/600 ($2.75) Stephen
Friday 34.75 275/300 ($1.10) 74.5 57/1,000 $7.25 Stephen

The grid below shows a recap of the results so far this season. If you weren’t paying attention this week, there are now a couple extra line items as Stephen is producing FantasyAces lineups similar to how we do FanDuel and DraftKings. Stephen started off slow but finished with a bang on Friday and was able to significantly bump his ROI from -100% to the -35.1% that it sits at now. As for Brad and I, we struggled mightily on the GPP side; however, Brad still maintains a positive ROI in the GPP category.

FanDuel Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Matt $36.00 $32.40 -10.0% $36.00 $17.51 -51.4% $72.00 $49.91 -30.7%
Stephen $9.00 $12.60 40.0% $10.00 $8.50 -15.0% $19.00 $21.10 11.1%
FD Overall $45.00 $45.00 0.0% $46.00 $26.01 -43.5% $91.00 $71.01 -22.0%
DraftKings Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $42.00 $36.00 -14.3% $21.00 $25.00 19.0% $63.00 $61.00 -3.2%
DK Overall $42.00 $36.00 -14.3% $21.00 $25.00 19.0% $63.00 $61.00 -3.2%
FantasyAces Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Stephen $4.40 $0.00 -100.0% $11.00 $10.00 -9.1% $15.40 $10.00 -35.1%
FA Overall $4.40 $0.00 -100.0% $11.00 $10.00 -9.1% $15.40 $10.00 -35.1%
Overall $91.40 $81.00 -11.4% $78.00 $61.01 -21.8% $169.40 $142.01 -16.2%

Ownership Percentage Tracking

We had a hypothesis at DailyOverlay that we could utilized the Industry Consensus list to help predict ownership percentages with the assumption being that players who were selected by more experts would likely be higher owned picks in Cash and GPP tournaments.

Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked this first two weeks. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.Displaying MLB-Ownership-Week1.bmp

Count Cash% GPP% Total
13 49.60% 28.40% 1
12 82.30% 49.65% 2
11 60.25% 33.80% 2
10 56.78% 39.62% 6
9 44.84% 29.36% 15
8 37.85% 24.54% 26
7 36.40% 23.63% 38
6 25.59% 17.74% 62
5 23.21% 16.96% 113
4 15.78% 12.52% 153
3 10.43% 9.94% 219
2 6.71% 7.40% 420
1 2.93% 3.85% 823

Not much changed this week with the ownership percentage numbers. In fact, many moved less than .5% so we’ve established a solid % number just one week in to the season. For those of you wondering, this is a handy tool when determining who might be a nice contrarian play in either format. We will keep tracking this as long as it keeps providing us with useful insights.

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