We have arrived at summer! It’s officially summer now in the US of A and with the NBA Finals concluding last night, it’s time for MLB to take center stage. Some sports fans consider this time a lull in the sports world; however, if you’re an MLB junkie, like myself, this is the best time of the year. Brad continues to leave the pack in the dust in our expert standings while Stephen climbed back to the #2 spot. Our Lineup Construction was an absolute joke last week. If you faded our lineups, good for you…I wish I would have faded them too.

In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one expert, but produced an “A+” grade. We will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.

As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the MLB Industry Consensus articles and MLB Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first pitch of the first game to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.

Overall Leaderboard

The top-3 overall are below. An honorable mention goes out to ESPN Daily Notes who made a big jump this week, though they are still outside the top-3. Check out our season-long MLB Expert Grades standings.

#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 4.53) hangs on to his wide gap atop the leaderboard. He did take a step backwards for the first time in a long while.

#2A) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 3.18) climbs back into the top-3 for the season. Stephen had a nice week and claims a tie for 2nd.

#2B) DailyRoto (Score: 3.18) maintains a hold towards the top of the leaderboard. For the second week in a row they are tied for 2nd place.

Week in Review

Monday (June 13th)

Nothing spectacular but not a completely awful start to the week. Only one expert finished above 4.0 but only one finished below 2.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
A 11th place finish on the day for the Consensus with a 2.53 score.

A+ – Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, Jose Abreu, Ryan Rua, Ian Kinsler
F – A total of 15 of the 38 picks finished in the failing category.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 4.17) hauled in the top score for the day with three of his six picks finishing with an “A” or better.

#2) ESPN Daily Notes (Score: 3.75) makes a rare appearance in the daily top-2. Seven of the 16 plays graded out at “A” or better.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Whit Merrifield (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Jerad Eickhoff (Rotocurve)
A+ – Edinson Volquez (Scout)
A+ – Robbie Grossman (DK Playbook)
A+ – Matt Duffy (FantasyPros)
A+ – Johnny Giavotella (FantasyPros)

Tuesday (June 14th)

A very similar day to Monday though there was an uptick in scoring. Only one expert finished below 2.0 while four surpassed 4.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
A solid 8th place finish for the Consensus on Tuesday with a 3.37 score. This included breaking the double-digit mark for “A+” picks.

A+ – Madison Bumgarner, David Price, Brandon Finnegan, Buster Posey, Robinson Chirinos, Ryan Rua, Miguel Cabrera, Trevor Story, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gonzalez
F – A total of 17 of the 38 picks finished in the failing category.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) FantasyWired (Score: 5.00) found themselves atop the leaderboard on Tuesday. Four of their five plays graded out at “A” or better.

#2) DailyFantasyCafe (Score: 4.32) brought home 2nd place for the day. Eight of their 22 selections scored an “A+” grade. DFC was the only expert to play Carlos Santana and his “A+”.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Julio Teheran (FantasyTeamAdvice)
A+ – Gio Gonzalez (FantasyPros)
A+ – Chris Tillman (FantasyPros)
A+ – Didi Gregorius (ESPN Daily Notes)
A+ – Carlos Santana (DailyFantasyCafe)

Wednesday (June 15th)

The experts were all over the board on Wednesday. We had some stellar scores and some really poor ones. Overall, eight experts did not eclipse the 2.0 threshold.

Industry Consensus Picks
A 12th place finish for the Consensus and its 2.61 score.

A+ – Noah Syndergaard, Chris Sale, Hector Santiago, Freddie Freeman, Tim Anderson, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz
F – Eighteen of the 38 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 6.25) makes his first appearance in the top-2 this week. Brad hauled in two “A+” grades.

#2) ESPN Daily Notes (Score: 4.43) makes its 2nd appearance this week in the top-2. Three of the seven plays finished with an “A” or better.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Drew Smyly (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Erick Aybar (FantasyPros)
A+ – Jake Smolinski (FantasyPros)
A+ – Adam Jones (FantasyPros)

Friday (June 17th)

A solid end to the week as five experts scored at 4.0 or above.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus finished in 13th for the day with a 2.55 score.

A+ – Masahiro Tanaka, Paul Goldschmidt, David Ortiz, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders
F – Thirteen of the 31 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 5.00) tops the list on Friday. A weird day for Stephen as he made six total plays and picked up three “A+’s” and three failing grades.

#2) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 4.80) makes it a clean sweep for the good guys here at DO. Three of his five plays finished at “A” or better.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Carlos Beltran (DailyRoto)
A+ – Miguel Cabrera (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Salvador Perez (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Yasmany Tomas (FantasyTeamAdvice)
A+ – Freddie Freeman (Scout)
A+ – Michael Wacha (FantasyPros)
A+ – Ryan Flaherty (FantasyPros)
A+ – Peter O’Brien (FantasyPros)
A+ – Christian Yelich (FantasyPros)
A+ – Cole Hamels (ESPN Daily Notes)
A+ – Trevor Bauer (ESPN Daily Notes)
A+ – Jeff Samardzija (ESPN Daily Notes)
A+ – Carlos Gomez (ESPN Daily Notes)

Consensus Lineup Construction Review

It doesn’t get much worse than this past week’s Lineup Construction. We only found the money in two of the 24 “contests” that we played in last week. That’s horrible…just flat out horrible! Was it because Brad and I were thrown off our game by the switcharoo? Who knows. We will be back in our usual spots tonight though.

Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:

  1. Matt will make two separate lineups for FanDuel and Brad will do the same for DraftKings, one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments. Stephen will now provide a FantasyDraft Cash and GPP lineup for those same days.
  2. For Cash games, we will try to build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in. This has proven a bit difficult to get a top-tier pitcher in our lineups by using only Consensus plays. For that reason, we now have tweaked the rules a bit and allow for one off the board play in the Cash game format.
  3. For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
  4. We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.

Weekly/Overall Results

FanDuel

Brad was on FanDuel this week as I was in states that either don’t allow DFS at all or don’t allow FanDuel (I’m looking at you Texas.). Not a profitable week as Brad managed to find the money with his Cash lineup on Tuesday but was 0-fer the rest of the week.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 149.4 75/100 ($2.00) 122 9,852/15,028 ($1.00) Brad
Tuesday 157.5 40/100 $1.60 98 12,153/15,028 ($1.00) Brad
Wednesday 153.5 67/100 ($2.00) 94.3 10,185/11,560 ($1.00) Brad
Friday 103.1 90/100 ($2.00) 110.3 8,748/15,028 ($1.00) Brad

DraftKings

From bad to worse. A combination of myself, Brad and Stephen were unable to find the money at all on DK this week. Just a pathetic showing. We’ll blame it on the Consensus not giving us good players to choose from..ha!

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 96.6 92/100 ($2.00) 63.35 2,300/2,362 ($1.00) Brad
Tuesday 124.95 82/100 ($2.00) 112.35 31,612/61,090 ($3.00) Brad (Cash), Stephen (GPP)
Wednesday 70.1 98/100 ($2.00) 107.65 30,539/49,833 ($3.00) Matt
Friday 95.9 87/100 ($2.00) 94.65 37,875/54,901 ($3.00) Matt

FantasyDraft

Stephen managed to find a $.50 profit in the GPP on Tuesday. Other than that, it was a big whiff in FantasyDraft.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Monday 92.9 107/113 ($1.00) 98.35 374/454 ($1.00) Stephen
Tuesday 123.65 66/106 ($1.00) 139.85 81/417 $0.50 Stephen
Wednesday 94 100/113 ($1.00) 133.3 112/326 ($1.00) Stephen
Friday 115.1 62/106 ($1.00) 117.95 215/426 ($1.00) Stephen

The grid below shows a recap of the results so far this season. It was a bad week…not really much else to say about it. ROI dipped again to the -17.1%. Last week would have been a great week to completely fade our lineups. Brad and I will flip back to our normal sites tonight so the winning run will begin tonight.

FanDuel Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $10.00 $7.20 -28.0% $5.00 $0.00 -100.0% $15.00 $7.20 -52.0%
Matt $72.00 $68.40 -5.0% $80.00 $94.51 18.1% $152.00 $162.91 7.2%
Stephen $9.00 $12.60 40.0% $10.00 $8.50 -15.0% $19.00 $21.10 11.1%
FD Overall $91.00 $88.20 -3.1% $95.00 $103.01 8.4% $186.00 $191.21 2.8%
DraftKings Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $82.00 $68.40 -16.6% $40.00 $33.00 -17.5% $122.00 $101.40 -16.9%
Matt $6.00 $3.60 -40.0% $9.00 $0.00 -100.0% $15.00 $3.60 -76.0%
Stephen $0.00 $0.00 #DIV/0! $3.00 $0.00 -100.0% $3.00 $0.00 -100.0%
DK Overall $88.00 $72.00 -18.2% $52.00 $33.00 -36.5% $140.00 $105.00 -25.0%
FantasyAces Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Stephen $16.50 $8.00 -51.5% $44.00 $22.50 -48.9% $60.50 $30.50 -49.6%
FA Overall $16.50 $8.00 -51.5% $44.00 $22.50 -48.9% $60.50 $30.50 -49.6%
FantasyDraft Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Stephen $7.00 $4.00 -42.9% $9.00 $3.00 -66.7% $16.00 $7.00 -56.3%
FND Overall $7.00 $4.00 -42.9% $9.00 $3.00 -66.7% $16.00 $7.00 -56.3%
Overall $202.50 $172.20 -15.0% $200.00 $161.51 -19.2% $402.50 $333.71 -17.1%

Ownership Percentage Tracking

Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked so far this season. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.Displaying MLB-Ownership-Week1.bmp

In addition to the Overall Ownership chart, we have added a couple of items. We broke down ownership percentage by position for the Cash and GPP. You can find those charts below as well.

Overall

Count Cash% GPP% Total
14 68.10% 42.00% 1
13 49.60% 28.40% 1
12 59.06% 41.44% 7
11 55.81% 36.71% 9
10 52.49% 35.88% 17
9 42.77% 26.96% 45
8 33.91% 22.33% 74
7 31.82% 21.05% 82
6 22.56% 16.64% 133
5 19.94% 15.32% 237
4 14.16% 11.65% 340
3 9.57% 9.12% 509
2 6.04% 6.64% 883
1 2.93% 3.71% 1864

Cash by Position

Count SP C 1B 2B SS 3B OF Total
14 68.10% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 68.10%
13 49.60% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 49.60%
12 72.76% 32.50% N/A 17.10% N/A N/A N/A 59.06%
11 56.86% N/A 47.40% N/A N/A N/A N/A 55.81%
10 53.10% 35.90% N/A N/A 26.50% 79.50% 60.20% 52.49%
9 49.44% N/A 43.00% 35.40% 49.70% 30.46% 39.14% 42.77%
8 25.57% 32.64% 30.75% 40.86% 40.36% 37.10% 44.70% 33.91%
7 32.78% 31.43% 25.56% 26.43% 38.64% 29.99% 32.43% 31.82%
6 25.48% 22.08% 18.15% 13.38% 17.64% 25.86% 26.53% 22.56%
5 20.86% 19.32% 17.65% 21.44% 17.33% 16.25% 23.06% 19.94%
4 13.55% 15.62% 10.77% 12.05% 13.11% 12.37% 18.20% 14.16%
3 10.37% 9.70% 9.20% 7.95% 9.58% 7.68% 10.92% 9.57%
2 7.76% 5.41% 4.74% 4.86% 5.78% 4.59% 7.42% 6.04%
1 3.27% 4.09% 2.01% 2.90% 2.69% 2.10% 3.28% 2.93%

GPP by Position

Count SP C 1B 2B SS 3B OF Total
14 42.00% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.00%
13 28.40% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 28.40%
12 48.86% 29.90% N/A 15.90% N/A N/A N/A 41.44%
11 38.28% N/A 24.20% N/A N/A N/A N/A 36.71%
10 37.29% 18.70% N/A N/A 17.10% 61.00% 28.30% 35.88%
9 33.05% N/A 21.48% 23.09% 31.18% 18.90% 23.08% 26.96%
8 21.86% 20.37% 17.91% 22.28% 23.93% 19.00% 31.03% 22.33%
7 23.21% 19.50% 17.21% 17.03% 25.02% 19.36% 20.37% 21.05%
6 21.43% 15.62% 13.58% 10.65% 14.19% 17.36% 17.07% 16.64%
5 18.37% 14.15% 13.68% 14.95% 14.42% 12.45% 16.31% 15.32%
4 14.40% 13.55% 8.73% 10.08% 12.23% 9.65% 12.74% 11.65%
3 11.28% 9.24% 6.88% 8.27% 10.01% 7.55% 9.88% 9.12%
2 9.78% 7.09% 5.27% 5.67% 6.38% 5.18% 7.09% 6.64%
1 5.37% 4.22% 2.80% 3.49% 3.07% 2.93% 4.02% 3.71%

Be sure to check out tonight’s MLB Expert Consensus as we will start to add in these ownership percentages to the article. We have compiled enough data now that we feel comfortable estimating Cash and GPP ownership numbers on a daily basis. This will provide you, the DFS player, with added insight into where exactly the percentage of ownership will shake out. It allows you to make some decisions on which players to potentially fade and those that might be a nice contrarian option.

 

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