“Changes, they are a comin'” sounds like it should be the title to a country song. It’s not…at least not one that I’m aware of. We (specifically Brad) like to crunch numbers around here and with a few days off for the All-Star game that’s just what we did. Pitchers score higher on the DO scale (not really a big surprise) so we will break out the grading by pitchers and hitters. This will allow for a more accurate picture. In addition to that, we will add in a “value” component that takes DK salary into account. This component will show who is getting the best bang for the buck. Most people can make good picks if salary is not a factor; however, it takes another level of thinking to find those diamonds in the rough.

In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one expert, but produced an “A+” grade. We will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.

As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the MLB Industry Consensus articles and MLB Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first pitch of the first game to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.

Overall Leaderboard

The top-3 overall are below. Enjoy your final look at our combined MLB Expert Standings as we will begin breaking out by pitchers and hitters.

#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 4.54) has had a stranglehold on the lead all season. Will it hold up when we start breaking out by position?

#2) DailyRoto (Score: 3.23) moves back into the 2nd slot. Once we put the point per dollar system into play, I think we will find out what we already know and that is DR does not throw out too many “value” plays.

#3A) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 3.15) falls back to a 3rd place tie this week. I am looking forward to seeing where Stephen ranks when we take the point per dollar system into play as I think he consistently provides some nice salary-saving plays.

#3B) Rotocurve (Score: 3.15) has worked their way back into the top-3 with a nice week.

Week in Review

Monday (July 4th)

We took Monday off to celebrate Independence Day. I hope that you enjoyed time with family and friends while remembering the soldiers, past and present, that helped us gain our independence and help us remain the greatest country on this planet! Oh, and I hope you shot off a few fireworks!

Tuesday (July 5th)

A decent start to the week as only one expert finished below 2.0. With a couple of guys absent, we only had 14 experts make selections on Tuesday.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus finished in 8th for the day with a 2.71 score.

A+ – Jean Segura, Troy Tulowitzki, Marcus Semien, Danny Valencia, Josh Donaldson, Ezequiel Carrera, Yoenis Cespedes
F – Seventeen of the 38 picks finished in the failing category.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) DailyFantasySportsRankings (Score: 4.42) brought home the gold for Tuesday. Five of their 12 plays finished with an “A” or better grade.

#2) Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP (Score: 3.83) started off the week with a solid 2nd place finish. Three of Stephen’s six plays finished with a grade of “A” or better. He was the lone expert to play Giancarlo Stanton and his “A+” grade.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Manny Machado (DailyRoto)
A+ – Giancarlo Stanton (Daily Overlay – BvP for MVP)
A+ – Maikel Franco (FantasyTeamAdvice)
A+ – Austin Romine (FantasyPros)
A+ – David Price (ESPN Daily Notes)

Wednesday (July 6th)

It was a great day on Wednesday for the group of experts. We had 12 experts finish above the 3.0 threshold on the day. With the good came some bad though as three scores couldn’t crack 2.0.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus turned in an 12th place finish for the day with a 3.03 score.

A+ – Johnny Cueto, Buster Posey, David Freese, Yangervis Solarte, Robinson Cano, Jake Lamb, Michael Saunders, Mike Trout
F – Fifteen of the 32 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) DailyFantasyCafe (Score: 7.17) finished atop the leaderboard on Wednesday. We are now pulling their “Cash Game Locks” for the daily selections. Four of their six plays finished with an “A+” grade. They were the only site to play Matt Kemp and his “A+” grade.

#2) Rotocurve (Score: 4.33) took home a 2nd place finish. Two of their six plays garnered an “A+” grade.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Marcus Stroman (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Ryan Schimpf (Moxyball – Cheat Sheet)
A+ – Matt Kemp (DailyFantasyCafe)

Friday (July 8th)

A decent day to end the week. Ten guys topped the 3.0 plateau but four failed to crack the 2.0 threshold.

Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus finished in 11th for the day with a 2.44 score.

A+ – Jose Fernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Correa, Adam Eaton
F – Sixteen of the 36 selections finished with a failing grade.

Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 4.50) finished the week strong. He hauled in an “A+”, an “A”, a “B” and a failing grade.

#2) FantasyTeamAdvice (Score: 4.22) ended the week strong with a 2nd place finish. Three of their nine picks scored an “A+” grade.

Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Logan Forsythe (DailyRoto)
A+ – Eduardo Nunez (DailyRoto)
A+ – Mark Trumbo (RotoGrinders 6-Pack)
A+ – Elvis Andrus (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Jon Gray (Rotocurve)
A+ – Yasmani Grandal (Rotocurve)
A+ – Salvador Perez (DK Playbook)
A+ – Yordano Ventura (FantasyPros)
A+ – Brian McCann (FantasyPros)
A+ – Christian Yelich (ESPN Daily Notes)

Consensus Lineup Construction Review

Thing continued moving in the right direction this week. Brad hit a bit of a snag on DK but FanDuel and FantasyDraft lineups proved to be profitable. Stephen brought home a nice 3rd place GPP finish to boost us. We’ll continue to keep plugging away and hope that everyone has enjoyed this “experiment” so far this season.

Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:

  1. Matt will make two separate lineups for FanDuel and Brad will do the same for DraftKings, one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments. Stephen will now provide a FantasyDraft Cash and GPP lineup for those same days.
  2. For Cash games, we will try to build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in. This has proven a bit difficult to get a top-tier pitcher in our lineups by using only Consensus plays. For that reason, we now have tweaked the rules a bit and allow for one off the board play in the Cash game format.
  3. For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
  4. We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.

Weekly/Overall Results

FanDuel

A struggle in the GPP on FanDuel last week. The Cash game was better though including a great finish on Tuesday. I considered submitting one lineup for both last week because the Cash seems to be performing better. I may try that this Friday since there will only be one Lineup Construction article this week.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Tuesday 183.8 2/100 $1.60 62.6 5,698/5,780 ($2.00) Matt
Wednesday 175 21/100 $1.60 101.3 11,424/13,872 ($1.00) Matt
Friday 105 56/100 ($2.00) 67.4 5,340/5,780 ($2.00) Matt

DraftKings

Brad had a solid finish with his Cash lineup on Friday; however, outside of that it was a rough week. No money in the GPP format. As a team, we have struggled in GPP outside of a couple of really high finishes that have boosted the ROI.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Tuesday 91.3 65/100 ($2.00) 52.45 2,302/2,352 ($1.00) Brad
Wednesday 121.55 66/100 ($2.00) 107.9 683/1,176 ($1.00) Brad
Friday 141.6 7/100 $1.60 110.5 738/2,352 ($1.00) Brad

FantasyDraft

Stephen took the collar for the week. After putting together a solid couple of weeks, he was unable to find the money with any of his lineups last week.

Day Cash Score Cash Place Profit (Loss) GPP Score GPP Place Profit (Loss) Picks By
Tuesday 84.3 97/113 ($1.00) 110.8 199/439 ($1.00) Stephen
Wednesday 105.85 34/45 ($1.00) 106.5 203/332 ($1.00) Stephen
Friday 84 73/113 ($1.00) 86 256/367 ($1.00) Stephen

The grid below shows a recap of the results so far this season. We continued to push the overall ROI number in the right direction (we’re back in single digits!). As you can see, we’ve made a killing on FantasyDraft as Stephen really hit a homer this week. That several week experience on FantasyAces has somewhat killed the overall ROI but we’ll overcome it. Let’s keep it moving in the right direction!

FanDuel Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $12.00 $10.80 -10.0% $7.00 $0.00 -100.0% $19.00 $10.80 -43.2%
Matt $92.00 $90.00 -2.2% $100.00 $99.51 -0.5% $192.00 $189.51 -1.3%
Stephen $9.00 $12.60 40.0% $10.00 $8.50 -15.0% $19.00 $21.10 11.1%
FD Overall $113.00 $113.40 0.4% $117.00 $108.01 -7.7% $230.00 $221.41 -3.7%
DraftKings Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Brad $104.00 $90.00 -13.5% $51.00 $52.00 2.0% $155.00 $142.00 -8.4%
Matt $6.00 $3.60 -40.0% $9.00 $0.00 -100.0% $15.00 $3.60 -76.0%
Stephen $0.00 $0.00 #DIV/0! $3.00 $0.00 -100.0% $3.00 $0.00 -100.0%
DK Overall $110.00 $93.60 -14.9% $63.00 $52.00 -17.5% $173.00 $145.60 -15.8%
FantasyAces Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Stephen $16.50 $8.00 -51.5% $44.00 $22.50 -48.9% $60.50 $30.50 -49.6%
FA Overall $16.50 $8.00 -51.5% $44.00 $22.50 -48.9% $60.50 $30.50 -49.6%
FantasyDraft Cash Entry Fees Cash Tot Winnings Cash ROI GPP Entry Fees GPP Tot Winnings GPP ROI Tot Entry Fees Tot Winnings Tot ROI
Matt $4.00 $8.00 100.0% $2.00 $0.00 -100.0% $6.00 $8.00 33.3%
Stephen $14.00 $14.00 0.0% $15.00 $26.00 73.3% $29.00 $40.00 37.9%
FND Overall $18.00 $22.00 22.2% $17.00 $26.00 52.9% $35.00 $48.00 37.1%
Overall $257.50 $237.00 -8.0% $241.00 $208.51 -13.5% $498.50 $445.51 -10.6%

Ownership Percentage Tracking

Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked so far this season. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.Displaying MLB-Ownership-Week1.bmp

In addition to the Overall Ownership chart, we have broken down ownership percentage by position for the Cash and GPP. You can find those charts below as well.

Overall

Count Cash% GPP% Total
14 68.10% 42.00% 1
13 49.60% 28.40% 1
12 60.56% 41.53% 8
11 55.32% 36.63% 11
10 53.85% 36.00% 24
9 41.47% 26.95% 51
8 34.66% 22.70% 86
7 29.11% 20.18% 106
6 22.50% 16.64% 179
5 19.01% 15.11% 296
4 13.83% 11.56% 429
3 9.80% 9.16% 644
2 6.11% 6.58% 1104
1 2.93% 3.64% 2388

Cash by Position

Count SP C 1B 2B SS 3B OF Total
14 68.10% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 68.10%
13 49.60% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 49.60%
12 72.48% 32.50% N/A 17.10% N/A N/A N/A 60.56%
11 56.11% N/A 47.40% N/A N/A N/A N/A 55.32%
10 54.52% 35.90% N/A N/A 26.50% 79.50% 60.20% 53.85%
9 45.94% N/A 45.33% 35.40% 49.70% 30.93% 37.52% 41.47%
8 27.46% 32.64% 28.04% 38.70% 40.25% 35.02% 47.66% 34.66%
7 27.75% 28.82% 26.31% 26.20% 37.60% 27.13% 30.46% 29.11%
6 26.86% 20.34% 20.43% 12.12% 17.04% 25.79% 25.94% 22.50%
5 19.28% 17.48% 17.01% 19.87% 16.91% 15.69% 22.75% 19.01%
4 13.30% 14.29% 10.81% 11.75% 12.31% 12.00% 18.11% 13.83%
3 11.35% 10.43% 8.48% 7.65% 9.82% 7.53% 11.56% 9.80%
2 7.56% 6.30% 4.73% 5.25% 5.90% 4.77% 7.26% 6.11%
1 3.29% 3.82% 1.98% 2.97% 2.85% 2.28% 3.19% 2.93%


GPP by Position

Count SP C 1B 2B SS 3B OF Total
14 42.00% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.00%
13 28.40% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 28.40%
12 47.73% 29.90% N/A 15.90% N/A N/A N/A 41.53%
11 37.87% N/A 24.20% N/A N/A N/A N/A 36.63%
10 36.95% 18.70% N/A N/A 17.10% 61.00% 28.30% 36.00%
9 32.44% N/A 24.38% 23.09% 31.18% 20.17% 22.71% 26.95%
8 22.48% 20.37% 17.14% 21.79% 23.98% 19.43% 30.79% 22.70%
7 21.64% 18.78% 16.84% 16.82% 24.11% 18.12% 20.17% 20.18%
6 21.45% 14.99% 13.92% 10.60% 14.84% 17.26% 16.97% 16.64%
5 17.90% 13.87% 13.01% 14.12% 14.22% 12.85% 16.63% 15.11%
4 14.40% 12.37% 8.98% 9.99% 11.63% 9.63% 12.86% 11.56%
3 11.96% 9.64% 6.62% 7.77% 9.89% 7.24% 10.20% 9.16%
2 9.49% 7.37% 5.24% 5.78% 6.27% 5.42% 6.89% 6.58%
1 5.26% 3.94% 2.74% 3.44% 3.11% 2.88% 3.97% 3.64%

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