You can’t always take the sexiest pick on the block.
We saw that last week in our 3 BvP selection pieces, and the result was atrocious. Two nights where we were graded less than a one with an OK Friday to boot.
We are slipping, falling, but we gots to get up!
To make up ground (and hopefully not continue to dig our own grave), we’ve got a 10-pack tonight! I FEEL like the following plays are solid so let’s hope the baseball gods shine down on us this evening.
Hell, we can’t go any lower than last week, CAN we?
Many players listed below will probably be popular plays while a couple target some truly struggling hitters that HAVE to turn it around at some point, right?
If my 10-pack fails, then this is a sweeping declaration: No more than a 6-pack EVER again (unless there are 7 players who are 45-for-50 against someone on one night).
Again, check out dailybaseballdata.com for a one-stop shop for all the batter vs. pitcher data you could ever want!
Justin Bour – 1B – Marlins – Marlins – vs. Zach Davies
BvP: 3-for-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Analysis: I think Bour will be another popular play for value tonight. He’s a power hitter who rips RH pitching and hits behind Giancarlo Stanton. While that may mean less RBI opportunities should Stanton clear the bases, it also means Stanton is on base a lot to clean up. Davies owns a .472 wOBA vs. lefties and has allowed a .411 batting average to boot. His peripherals are atrocious: 6.98 ERA with a 5.03 xFIP and a 5.08 SIERA. He’s a buffet and Bour is ready to eat.
Adrian Gonzalez – 1B – Dodgers – vs. Jacob deGrom
BvP: 3-for-8, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: I struggled with this pick and here’s why: Not because it’s deGrom, it’s because A-Gon owns a sub-.100 batting average at home. Either age is catching up to Adrian or he’s due. DeGrom hasn’t been setting the world ablaze either though. Look at the garbage he tossed up in San Diego in his last start. The Padres are not a good team and deGrom is due to allow some runs: 1.99 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA. He’s actually been a hard ass against lefties this season, but his .217 wOBA against them is not sustainable. At $3,200 on DK, this is about as cheap as you might see Gonzalez this season.
Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Blue Jays – vs. Matt Cain
BvP: 21-for-64, 5 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 7 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: Yes, another struggling hitter. I told you there were some! I hope Tulo still has his Colorado potential inside him somewhere. His sub-.170 batting average is well below normal. Tulo hasn’t been perfect against Matt Cain, but Matt Cain isn’t Matt Cain of old. He’s been god awful against both sides of the plate, but worse against RH bats, allowing a .421 wOBA and a .333 batting average in their favor. i am banking on some comfortability at the plate for Troy tonight so he can get his swing right and get back on track.
Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Diamondbacks – vs. Chris Rusin
Analysis: Goldschmidt got off to a good start last night in game one of this set at Coors. Don’t you think he is ready for round two against a lefty? Goldy, if you can believe, is struggling against lefties this season a bit, but it’s only May and his .231 average is going to come up (also says his .278 BABIP against). Deploy in both cash and GPP games with confidence.
Derek Norris – C – Padres – vs. Jon Lester
BvP: 3-for-10, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 5 BB
Analysis: This certainly would’ve been in play Monday, but the weather forced its postponement. I was all about Kyle Hendricks tonight, but Lester is still getting the nod. The Padres are an underrated club against lefties and seem to always hit much more succinctly away from PETCO (and rightly so). Norris has been known to pummel lefties in his career. Lester actually has pitched worse at home this season and has some wiggle room in his ERA to grow. Norris is only $2,800 and we can only hope the wind is blowing out to center or left today. The 5 walks are very telling of Norris’ comfortability at the plate against Lester. Many will be on Lester today due to his matchup, but should he struggle, a Derek Norris play could win you some righteous cash!
Brandon Phillips – 2B – Reds – vs. Juan Nicasio
BvP: 5-for-11, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Analysis: Phillips is on fire right now and is thriving in the clean-up spot for the Reds. With an improved Cozart leading off, a speedy Billy Hamilton moved into the 2-hole and one of the more underrated hitters in Joey Votto at 3, that leaves a lot of room for RBI opportunities for Phillips who is crushing RH pitching right now: .353 wOBA, .241 ISO. This game also is at GAB, a boost to hitters agains Mr. Nicasio and his ready-to-balloon ERA (3.10 ERA, 3.90 xFIP, 4.11 SIERA).
Hunter Pence – OF and Buster Posey – C – Giants – vs. J.A. Happ
Pence BvP: 4-for-8, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Posey BvP: 3-or-6, 1 2B
Analysis: I love me some Giants. I really should hate them considering their recent success and their World Series victory over the Rangers in 2010. But I can’t hate them, especially in DFS. They are one of my favorite teams to use players from while at home at the worst hitter’s park in baseball, AT&T Park. J.A. Happ has long been one of my most hated pitchers. To me, he’s not very good and gets away with a lot of mistakes. The Giants aren’t a forgiving team against lefties and while the venue may aid Happ a bit, the ability to put the ball in play in this large playing field is a Giants’ specialty. Posey was in an 0-for-13 slump and sat out last night, so I like him to bounce back nicely against lefties, of whom he is a beast against. I basically can have the same narrative of Pence though Posey possesses a little more power. I like this play even more because Happ is long overdue for a bad outing: 2.5 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, 4.49 SIERA. See, he’s not very good. Oh, forgot to mention, both Posey and Pence are man beasts at home so far: .290 average for Buster and .351 average for Hunter. That’s great for the now newly nicknamed Busta-Hunt!
Nolan Arenado – 3B and Carlos Gonzalez – OF – Rockies – vs. Rubby de la Rosa
Arenado BvP: 3-for-6, 2 HR, 3 RBI
CarGo BvP: 4-for-10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: And yes, we haven’t forgotten about the other side of the Coors game. It’s an improved Rubby against Mr. Arenado and CarGo, both of whom are slicing the ball well. This game is at Coors, so I shouldn’t have to do a lot of convincing to get you to roster these guys a few times. Arenado owns a .418 wOBA vs. RH pitching while CarGo sits at a pretty .392 wOBA to go along with his insanely high batting average of .341 vs. right handers. Rubby has improved this season, but a game at Coors puts him, like any pitcher, at a disadvantage.
Lastly, here’s a recap of last week’s BvP-related lineups, our first week on DraftKings.
|Contest Type||Entry Fee||Lineup Score||Winnings||Profit||Total Profit|
Not a good start to our transition to DraftKings, BUT we are still very much profiting for the year. Hopefully today’s lineup can break the streak!
Narrative: I’ve got the Team of Adams at pitcher today with Conley vs. the Brewers and Morgan against the hapless Braves. This allowed for a monstrous lineup of bats, some Coors, some at GAB with the Pirates who face Big Pasta. Starling Marte has a solid BvP against Simon and Polanco continues to be underowned yet very serviceable. I would love to bring home some dough tonight.