Welp, let me be the third or fourth person to congratulate Greg, our Superintendent of DailyOverlay after a HUGE win last week.
He scored a nice lump sum of $50K and he has BvP for MVP partially to thank for it as well as our very own On the Hill by Brad. He utilized these two features on our site to supplement his lineups and it scored in a big way. Hope you have that kind of success using this write up and Brad’s On the HIll article yourself. They are obviously very worthy of your time!
Anyway, I’ve always said BvP is not data you can use to fill your entire lineup, rather it is something you use to help build around or fill in holes to your core. That’s how I have scored big and now Greg can put that feather in his cap. I am sure there are many others who do the same thing.
We are still in the top 3 of experts, but we have slid the past two weeks. Hopefully, we can have a better week and take back what is rightfully ours!!!
Enough gabbing, let’s get down to business!
Oh, one last thing, all BvP data is from the greatness that is www.dailybaseballdata.com. Check them out!
Bryce Harper – OF – Nationals – vs. Chris Young
BvP: 4-for-8, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: I think pitching options are mediocre tonight so you are really going to have to buckle down on your research to find some value. Eddie Butler vs. the Padres? Anyway, Chris Young, one of my many DFS baseball kryptonite. His 6’10” frame and slow poke, soft toss make me cringe when hitters can’t light him up consistently. Well, Bryce Harper is a hitter on another level. Kauffman isn’t an ideal venue for this play, but I will side against Young’s .410 wOBA and 58% hard contact versus lefties. Hey, guess who is a lefty? Yep, you guessed it!
Alex Rodriguez – 3B – Yankees – vs. Chris Tillman
BvP: 6-for-13, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: Tonight’s slate is full of guys on my “Pitchers I hate list,” BUT and I can’t believe I am saying this, Tilly has one foot out the door on my list. He’s looked much better this season and has started to show some extra umph on his pitches. But I say that with caution. While that sounds counter productive to this pick, Tilly isn’t getting away clean. A-Rod has 3 homeruns in his last 4 games and has two more things working in his favor: A reverse-splits pitcher and those 8-foot high walls in left (unless he goes oppo, but we aren’t banking on that here). With 4 dingers off of Tillman and a hot bat, A-Rod gets the nod, steroids and all.
Matt Joyce – OF – Pirates – vs. Jake Arrieta
BvP: 7-for-14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: You are laughing right? I bet you are. “Matt Joyce against Jake Arrieta????” You question confidently. Well, no one really seems to be able to take down Jake the Snake, and Joyce isn’t someone I would normally recommend on a normal night, but this is no normal night. Joyce is going to provide you with a lot of value and he’s one of those mediocre hitters who gets in the aces’ head play, and I am OK with that for the price. He’s $2,600 on DK and a definite tournament-only play for me.
Billy Hamilton – OF – Reds – vs. Jeff Samardzija
BvP: 5-for-10, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SB
Analysis: Let’s just say I am a guy who really like Billy Hamilton. He’s not the greatest hitter in the world, but he’s so damn fast. He’s been hitting well of late and has seen his stock rise in the lineup (hit leadoff against Cueto last night). I am going to roll the dice that he continues to leadoff tonight against Jeff Samardzija. Hamilton probably has the least amount of power out of every hitter in the majors, yet he has a HR against Jeff and 2 steals, which are really the reason you are playing Hamilton, and the bags and the .500 are the reason I am making him a pick tonight.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Marlins – vs. Patrick Corbin
BvP: 2-for-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Analysis: I am in LOVE with this game right here. Marlins and Diamondbacks. Lefties vs. Lefties. The D-Backs and the Marlins are 3 and 4 in wOBA vs. southpaws this season, so I am going to recommend someone in this game, and that man is Giancarlo Stanton, who goes all Jedi on lefties, including this line so far this season: .600 ISO, 60% Hard Contact, .534 wOBA.
Josh Donaldson – 3B and Troy Tulowitzki – SS – vs. Martin Perez
Donaldson BvP: 5-for-13, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB
Tulowitzki BvP: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: Yesterday was such a bust for Blue Jays hitters. A.J. Griffin made them look silly. The Blue Jays certainly have not seemed as dominant of an offense as they were a year ago early on, but even at 70% capacity they are still damn good and always should be feared. I am going back to the well tonight against Martin Perez, a lefty who is a ground ball pitcher that won’t miss a lot of bats. That’s a good thing. Tulo has been in a slump all year long while Donaldson is, well, making a case for a back-to-back AL MVP award. Both are known to take care of lefties and I am hopeful tonight is the day they each can take Perez deep. My favorite part about this stack are the 6 walks between the two. I love seeing gobs of walks in a BvP line because that tells me the hitter is patient at the plate, is comfortable and is waiting to see his pitch. This is a much better situation for the BJs than last night.
Sonny Gray – Athletics – vs. Seattle Mariners
PvB: 26-for-126, 4 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 9 BB, 30 Ks
Analysis: I debated on whether I wanted to add Jose Quintana to this list, but I opted to stick with Sonny only. Gray was hammered in Detroit last time out and walked more batters than he struck out, which is a sign to keep an eye on after this game. If Gray struggles and puts up the same line, then something could be wrong with his arm. I am going to bet it was the misfortune of facing the TIgers gauntlet of right-handers and not that Gray is battling discomfort or worse. Gray loves pitching at the Coliseum and has only walked 8 batters in the 136 PAs against the Mariners. Cruz, Seager and Cano are hitting around a combined .250 against Gray, but with the comfort of home, I am going to take a flier on Gray to continue to have success against the M’s.
Lastly, we are going to recap our BvP lineups from last week. We had a very nice week to say the least. Last Tuesday our BvP-related lineup was entered into 5 contests (4 cash, 1 GPP) and we came out ahead $5.20. The final two days I entered just one lineup in the $1, $20K Sac Fly on FanDuel. We bombed on Wednesday, but was in the top 100 on Friday night for a $14.00 profit. That lineup would’ve been much better Friday if I hadn’t swapped Mike Trout at the last minute. The weather was awful in Texas on Friday and I was worried that game might rain out due to severe weather. It played just fine, so my swap scored us about 6 less points than if I had played Trout. Either way, very happy.
This week starts something new. If you are a Texan and play on FanDuel, you have probably figured out that you can’t play on FanDuel at the moment due to the agreement FD made with the state government. Hopefully this is temporary, but we will be switching our efforts to DraftKings for the time being. For our first BvP lineup on DK, here’s what we have.
Narrative: This lineup is in the solo shot with a top purse of $1,000. I went with Matt Moore as my second pitcher because he has shown to be consistent at home and gets the Dodgers who are in the bottom 10 against lefties with a .291 wOBA. Tropicana Field favors the pitcher and Moore has shown he might be back to his old self this year. I am not sure if the Rays will play Conger or Cassali at C, so that position could likely change. If Cassali plays, then I will take him at C and take Drury down to LeMahieu who has a decent BvP against Padres’ starter Andrew Cashner.