Today will be the last installment of BvP for MVP for this week. Keep in mind that today also is the Wednesday Split Slates and we only provide BvP picks for the evening tilts.
Unfortunately for BvP addicts like myself, tonight’s slate leaves a lot to be desired for BvP data and for finding pitching that I actually like. The big boys are in the afternoon slate, i.e., Jake Arrieta.
I had to get a bit creative with BvP picks today and every pick is a part of a stack. You’ll also notice I have 5 picks from one game, but you could make a case for 8 BvP plays from the Yankee/Blue Jays game. A game I actually really like now that the Yankees are heating up.
As always check out dailybaseballdata.com for more BvP data, not just the likes below. Now check out today’s picks.
Paul Goldschmidt – 1B and Welington Castillo – Diamondbacks – vs. Jeff Locke
Goldy BvP: 5-for-9, 1 BB, 1 SB
Castillo BvP: 2-for-10, 3 BB
Analysis: I liked this duo yesterday, including Castillo who was a BvP play for me and is back on the list today. That was against a “better” pitcher in Francisco Liriano. Both drew a couple of walks and put points on the board. But today, they get lowly Jeff Locke, whose 5.00 ERA and 5.05 SIERA are perfectly in sync. Thus, we can figure that Locke flat out sucks. Both RH bats above are lefty killers, and while these two picks would be better suited for a game at hitter-friendly Chase Field, both are really stadium proof because they both have the power to send a charge to the deepest parts of PNC Park. Locke has allowed a dreadful .384 wOBA to righties this season and with his .302 BABIP and matching ER peripherals, there’s no luck going on here. Locke is doing exactly what he is supposed to be doing for you, pumping your DFS teams full of fantasy points.
Jose Bautista – OF – and Josh Donaldson – 3B – Blue Jays – vs. Ivan Nova
Bautista BvP: 8-for-23, 3 2B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 7 BB
Donaldson BvP: 7-for-16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: I went back to the Castillo well but did not go back to the Michael Saunders well even though he is 2-for-4 against Ivan Nova (hint, that means get Saunders into your lineups because I am allowing recency bias to get the best of me). Anyway, Bautista hitting atop the Blue Jays’ order with 7 walks against Nova and Donaldson hitting right behind him make the perfect 1-2 punch vs. the less-than-super Nova. Donaldson’s bat is finally waking up and Bautista’s has been consistent since he received a right hook from Rougned Odor. Nova is a reverse-splits pitcher, so I am going to take my chances with these two fellers.
Starlin Castro – 2B, Mark Teixeira – 1B and Carlos Beltran – OF – Yankees – vs. Marco Estrada
Castro BvP: 12-for-27, 4 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SB
Teixeira BvP: 3-for-9, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB
Beltran BvP: 7-for-24, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB
Analysis: In my lineup below, you will see a 5-man Yankee stack. All 5 Yanks have great BvP against Marco Estrada, but I am taking the guys who have had the biggest pop or the best success against the Blue Jays’ hurler. Castro, Teixeira and Beltran make the cut today. Castro has the sexiest numbers against Estrada and if he could get a steal at the 2B position with a hit or two, Castro will be a great tournament play because no one ever picks him (there’s reasons why too). Most of this damage to Estrada was done when he was a Brewer and Castro a Cub, so Yankee Stadium could be the recipient of some solid contact from Castro a la Miller Park and Wrigley. I’ve been waiting for Teixeira to wake up and I think his bats are starting to warm. He’s reached base a couple of games in a row now and with 3 HRs in 9 ABs. I’ll take my chances and the DraftKings price tag for Big Tex. Then there’s Beltran. Has anyone seen what this guy is doing lately? He’s locked in with 5 straight multi-hit games and he went yard yesterday. While he has just 7 hits against Estrada, 3 of them have been for round-trippers. I’ll take the chances for the dinger again here. Estrada hasn’t been a bad pitcher, but it looks like the Yanks are starting to wake up a bit and Estrada is due for some regression, allowing sub .200 averages to both sides of the plate so far this season, a trend he can’t possibly keep up with. The Yankees can pour in the lefty bats and with the short porch in right and Estrada’s knack for giving up HRs, he could be in for a long day.
Lastly, the lineup for today. I have stacked the Blue Jays and Yankees game, left $3,000 on the table and have one non BJ/Yank.
Lineup Narrative: What more is there to say? I like Kazmir for the win in LA with the Reds’ having won just 3 road games all year and I like Foltynewicz electricity against the worst K% team in the league in the MIlwaukee Brewers who were rung up 13 times by Teheran last night. I’ve got this lineup in the $3 Moonshot. Ellsbury, McCann and Bogaerts are the other plays that make the cut.