Today is my one-year anniversary.
No, not my wedding, not sobriety, not the day we brought our puppy home, not the day I became a teacher…
This is the day last year that I hauled in my biggest DFS win ever. I relive that moment a lot because I was less than 2 points from taking down a 6-figure win. A caught-stealing penalty of -2 points was really the deciding factor. It was a DraftKings tournament and now thinking back, how nice would it have been if the caught stealing rule was abolished from DK like it was for the start of the 2016 MLB season.
I recall the moment, not to brag because even a big win like that doesn’t warrant me becoming an overbearing, boastful DFS smark, but to remind myself and share with you how great it felt to have the time spent researching finally paid off.
Was i upset I didn’t actually take down the tournament? Disappointed for sure because in my mind I could hear my parents saying “you can do better.” I certainly could’ve, too, via 2 points.
I hope those of you reading this have experienced the elation, instant joy, the excitement and the happiness you feel when you haul in a large, lump sum of money playing fantasy sports. While I was disappointed I came in second, I was still happy as (insert expletive).
I wish for all of you to experience that in your DFS careers because it may never come back around. I can share that with you honestly because since, I have run bone dry for most of the past year. With the exception of some nice college football payouts and one week in the NFL, I haven’t been able to create the same magic. I hope to break that streak one of these days. One win like that can really make your year, honestly. But that feeling of victory? There’s nothing like it. Outside of the birth of a child, seeing hard work, time and effort pay off doing something you love is one of the greatest feelings you will ever experience in your life.
“Dude, enough with the nostalgia, move on and get to the picks!”
Alright, alright, alright, my inner voice and probably a few who check this out believe I need to get to the picks, so here we are!
A reminder: Check out dailybaseballdata.com for your one-stop website of all BvP data!
Not many aces on the mound in tonight’s 15-game slate. Also, the aging Colby Lewis is extraordinarily expensive on DraftKings. Might I recommend that’s an easy fade for you right now?
Curtis Granderson – OF – Mets – vs. Wily Peralta
BvP: 5-for-8, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: So you want to pick on pitchers equivalent to JaMarcus Russell do ya? Well, here’s one — Wily Peralta. I love targeting against Free Wily because he’s so bad. He can’t keep the ball in the park and serves up Whoppers (trademark Burger King) to both sides of the plate. Grandy isn’t the Grandy of old, but he still leads off for the Mets and gets the most opportunities to do some damage as possible. Grandy isn’t on any kind of a heater, but he’s very capable of popping off a HR. Peralta’s .391 wOBA, .303 BAA and 1.55 HR/9 are some of the worst numbers on the slate tonight, so it’s not like I am recommending Carlos Correa vs. New Age Wunderkind (NAW) Colby Lewis.
Carlos Correa – SS – Astros – vs. Colby Lewis
BvP: 4-for-9, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI
Analysis: Oh hell, what was I thinking? OF COURSE I AM RECOMMENDING CARLOS CORREA vs. NEW AGE WUNDERKIND COLBY LEWIS! Sorry for the CAPS there, I got overly excited. Colby Lewis is priced on DK like Matt Harvey was yesterday (and I am expecting half of that outcome tonight for Lewis). Correa is on a nice roll right now with hits in his past 7 games (you can throw out anything from his matchup against Chris Sale because, well, it’s Chris Sale). Anyhow, Correa loves hitting at home this year with a near .300 average, 2 HR and 11 RBI. Lewis is a fly ball pitcher on the road in what can be a hitter’s paradise at times in Minute Maid Park. Cash Games, GPPs, Practice runs, Survivors, etc. Get Correa in your lineup – high floor, high ceiling tonight.
Jayson Werth – OF – Nationals – vs. Justin Nicolino
BvP: 3-for-5, 1 2B, 3 RBI
Analysis: I think Wily Peralta is a bad pitcher, but at least he can tailor his fastball into the high 90s and miss a few bats here and there. Then there’s Justin Nicolino, who would not be a pitcher I’d ever want on my major league roster. He’s got to be the epitome of how to pitch to contact and he’s not even that great at it. Nothing ever reaches the 90s and his 1.5 K/9 is absolutely pathetic. Werth is going to be a great tournament play today because of his matchup (despite the boost to pitching via Marlins Stadium) and his price is elevated on DraftKings. Werth is starting to heat up with 2 multi-hit games in his past 4. He’s always been able to hit lefty pitching and this should be a BP session for Mr. Werth.
Todd Frazier – 3B – vs. Dillon Gee
Frazier BvP: 3-for-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: Fellow teammate Jimmy Rollins would be a good BvP candidate as he has the bigger track record of anyone on this list, but with Correa on my list already, I can’t find another reason to pivot from that play, even with potential ownership. Anyway, we do have a White Sock (is this how you write the singular form of White Sox?) on the list today after all and that’s Mr. Frazier. Todd has always been reliable against lefties, but most of numbers (except his walk rate) are down a bit so far. He has hit average much better against RH pitching and I will fire up any slugger against Dillon Gee. If Gee is replacing Chris Young in the rotation after Young started the season over him, that’s saying a lot about the quality of pitching Gee is. This game is in one of the few hitter-friendly parks on the slate and Gee’s 1.32 HR/9 should only get worse as his regression kicks in. Frazier can help with that inflation! Maybe twice!
Carlos Santana – 1B and Jason Kipnis – 2B – Indians – vs. Clay Buchholz
Santana BvP: 3-for-7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB
Kipnis BvP: 3-for-5, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: While the Red Sox have cooled off, the Indians have heated up mightily. All it took was a series against the Reds to clobber 43 runs in their past 4 games! Next they travel to Fenway in one of the few hitter-friendly parks on the slate tonight and face off against a melting, fizzling, dwindling, fading Clay Buchholz. Santana went yard twice yesterday and Kipnis burned a lot of folks in games yesterday (perfect time to hop on today!). I like tables and Buchholz has been a no good, very bad pitcher this year. Here’s a table to show that:
|wOBA vs. L||Avg. vs. L||Hard vs. L||wOBA vs. R||Avg. vs. R||Hard vs. R||K/9||GB/FB||HR/9||BABIP||ERA||xFIP||SIERA|
|0.387||0.319||39.7 %||0.307||0.209||22.2 %||6.31||0.92||1.58||0.285||6.11||5.17||5.04|
Fly ball pitcher with an inflated everything against lefties should bode well for Kipnis and Santana and any other lefty you might want to play against the Indians – Lindor, Chisenhall, Jose Ramirez….
Jake Arrieta – SP – Cubs – vs. San Francisco Giants
PvB: 16-for-66, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 6 BB, 13 Ks, 4 SB
Analysis: As I stated earlier, not a lot of stud pitching on the mound tonight. Arrieta comes in with the stiffest price and a below-average strikeout rate. But I am willing to say that K rates dont always matter. Arrieta whiffed 11 Pirates in his last outing and they strikeout about as much as the Giants per game, which isn’t a lot.. The Ks may not be there, but this is a great matchup for Arrieta He’s one of the best groundball pitchers in the game (2.38 GB/FB ratio) and he’s pitching in the best pitcher’s park in the league. The Giants have won 8 straight games, but have Jake Peavy on the mound against one of the best offenses vs. RH pitching. The win should be there for Arrieta tonight, is what I am trying to get at.
Lastly we end with a BvP-related lineup. A couple of rough outings earlier in the week, but I think we can rebound well tonight. As always, this lineup could change a bit based on scratches, etc.
Lineup Analysis: Caleb Joseph and Adam Jones have had success against flyball pitcher Hector Santiago. Despite the Orioles at Angel Stadium, I like both Joseph and Jones as off-the-board plays. Mazara is too cheap to pass up even though Lance McCullers’ return could depress any offense on any given night. Martin Prado was a scratch from my BvP selections above, but I am going to use him tonight because he’s a machine that rarely strikes out, seems to always get on base and puts the ball in play. He just has a low ceiling, but is affordable to make this lineup work.