Rougned Odor already was becoming my favorite Ranger, then the Punch Hear Around the World happened Sunday…
Now, I think there was a base for this brawl starting in the first place, and that was the Joey Bats’ bat flip in last year’s playoffs. I don’t think there is any coincidence that some kind of blowup ensued between these two teams in their final regular season game of the season.
Holding a grudge for something that was awesome (yes, i loved the bat flip) is not something I actually care for, but Rougie vaulted himself into Ranger lore with this punch. It will forever be etched into our memories a la Nolan Ryan punching Robin Ventura.
And with that said…
Now, let’s get down to business. We had a solid week last week after some duds. You can check out the Expert Grading for this week if you missed it. BvP is a shade behind third place and with another solid week, we could be back into the top-2. So let’s punch our ticket into the top of the rankings like Rouged Odor punched Jose Bautista….yep, can’t let it go.
Also, don’t forget to check out dailybaseballdata.com for all of your BvP needs. Thanks to them as always.
Robinson Cano – 2B – Mariners – vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
BvP: 6-for-11, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: With 15 hits in his last 10 games, Robinson Cano is the first entry for today’s BvP selections. A trip to Camden Yards only boosts Cano as a play tonight. He’s one of the top-priced guys at 2B, but he’s worth paying up for against Ubaldo’s .439 wOBA and .371 batting average against left-handed hitters. Cano can spray the ball to any part of the field. Jimenez is not in great form with an overall 4.87 ERA and a 4.55 ERA at home. Cano makes a great play in both cash and GPP tournaments today.
Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves – vs. Juan Nicasio
BvP: 6-for-12, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB
Analysis: The prodigal son returns! Freddie’s back! I suppose with a ton of aces on the mound tonight, Nicasio will be a popular play against the Braves, especially at home in the friendly confines of PNC Park. This makes Freddie a great tournament play. He’s really starting to find his stride at the plate with 14 hits in his last 11 games, including a couple of hits last night. Nicasio comes in with a 4.34 ERA and a .407 wOBA versus left-handed hitting. Yes, Freeman is a left-handed hitter if you didn’t know that already. I love using Freddie in both cash games and GPPs because no one ever uses him. With nearly a full slate tonight, I expect him to be vastly underowned at first base. Four homeruns in 12 ABs? Pretty damn tempting don’t you think?
Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Tigers – vs. Phil Hughes
BvP: 18-for-41, 5 2B, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: We tried this last time, but Miggy was in really bad form. But that’s all changed. Miggy comes in with 13 hits in his last 10. He belted two homeruns Saturday and Sunday, respectively, and he’s facing Hughes at home where he owns a .360 batting average! Hughes is normally a reverse splits pitcher, but he’s been dreadful to both sides of the plate this season. Versus right-handers, Hughes sports a .342 wOBA and is allowing 37% hard contact. His 6.49 ERA is atrocious, but his peripherals say he probably should come back down to earth at some point. Even if he pitches well today, I’ll bank on Miggy tatooting a few of his pitches anyway. Those 11 extra-base hits against Hughes out of the 18 total his he has are very intriguing.
Evan Longoria – 3B – Rays – vs. Marcus Stroman
BvP: 6-for-12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: I honestly don’t get why Marcus Stroman is so expensive on DraftKings. He comes in right at $11,000. It’s very strange pricing to put him up there with Scherzer, Kershaw, Bumgarner, Syndergaard and even over Chris Archer (who I know has struggled, but more on him later). Anyway, the Rays popped the Blue Jays last night and the team as a whole seems to be clicking at the plate. A bonus is this game is in Rogers Centre, where Longoria seems to thrive. Evan is normally a guy to target against lefties, but he seems to have found his stride against Stroman. You will need some cheap options in tournaments to fit in the pricey arms, so at $3,400 on DK, Longo is a perfect fit to sneak in Kershaw and Bumgarner (more on them later as well).
Chris Archer – SP – Rays – vs. Blue Jays
PvB: 34-for-202, 5 2B, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 19 BB, 53 Ks
Analysis: Targeting players with depressed pricing is a perfect way to build your DFS lineups. Today is one of those days with Chris Archer coming in below $10,000 on DraftKings. Archer has owned the Blue Jays in his career and in two starts already this year, Archer is averaging 20 DK points. In those two starts, Archer has pitched 11 innings and struck out 18 batters. The BJs have just a .168 batting average against Archer and they are really struggling to score runs. Toronto is near the bottom 10 in wOBA vs. right handers and are striking out nearly 24% of the time. Archer is my favorite pitcher of the night: He’s cheap, has a ton of upside facing a reeling team that looks dangerous on paper and a lot of people will be off of him to snag one of the many big arms available.
Clayton Kershaw – SP – Dodgers – vs. Angels
PvB: 24-for-89, 6 2B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 8 BB, 23 Ks
Analysis: You really want me to explain why you should use Kershaw. If there is only one knock on this play, it’s that the Angels strike out just 13.7% percent of the time against lefties. However, they haven’t faced a lefty like Kershaw, who also is pitching at home where he is 3-1 with 2 complete game shutouts and 43 Ks. Albert Pujols is an interesting BvP play tonight against Kersh, so if you needed a dart to save salary, Pujols would certainly be an contrarian play. Anyway, getting off track here. The Angels are in the bottom 10 in offense against lefties with a .309 wOBA and a paltry .128 ISO.
Madison Bumgarner – SP – Giants – vs. Padres
PvB: 28-for-133, 9 2B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 14 BB, 43 Ks
Analysis: My third pitcher of the night, but this one has me a bit on edge. Yes, he’s facing the Padres, but Bumgarner is a funny cookie. He either has great home, but average road splits, or like two years ago, has great road splits, but completely fell apart at home. Right now, he’s nearing a 4.00 ERA on the road at the Mets, Brewers and Dodgers. The Padres are nowhere near any of those teams and play in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league. The San Diego Fathers are middle-of-the-pack in offense, but they aren’t terrible. They strike out a ton and even if Bumgarner gives up a couple of runs, I expect double-digit Ks.
Last week, we finally hit paydirt on Friday! Our profit for this endeavor is still in the black. Hope we can build upon that momentum this week. My lineup for tonight is below the table.
Lineup Narrative: Like I said, Archer is my favorite pitcher and the cheapest of the aces on the mound tonight. I paired him with Jamie, which might bite me, but I am willing to bet on his continued success at Busch Stadium against the Rockies who are historically not as good away from Coors. Juan Centeno is a punt and could be swapped (seems to happen every time). Freeman, Cano and Longo make my lineup from my list. Adam Jones almost was a selection today, but I wanted to see more data with him against Wade Miley. Jones is hot though and hits lefties well. Drew Stubbs is a platoon guy specializing in hitting lefties and is up against Eric Surkamp, one of the worst pitchers in the league Then there’s red hot Corey Seager and Ian Desmond, who each spurned players yesterday, so let’s see if people come off of them tonight after burning people.