I’ve been seeing a meme go around that says today is Friday the 13th AND a full moon.
Only half of that is true after doing a quick Google search, and yes, I realize today’s date. So, no, today is not a full moon. All teachers and parents reading this can breath a half sigh of relief.
Wednesday was a very nice rebound for us BvP fans, finishing second overall among the experts. The Red Sox were gimmes Wednesday, but they have a tough matchup tonight against Astros’ young fireballer Lance McCullers.
There will be two big boys on today’s list, who have great matchups. We’ve seen this a lot lately, but they don’t seem to pan out. Hopefully we are out of the slump for awhile and can put together a nice hitting streak for awhile.
As usual, check out dailybaseballdata.com for all the BvP data you could ever want.
On to the picks!
Josh Donaldson – 3B and Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Blue Jays – vs. Martin Perez
Donaldson BvP: 6-for-15, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Tulowitzki BvP: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB
It looks like Josh Donaldson may be heating up. He has 3 straight hits and is coming off a 4-hit performance on Wednesday at the most pitcher friendly park in the majors. Now he gets to tee off on one of the top-5 hitter’s parks in the league: Arlington. We’ve been down the road before with Donaldson and Martin Perez and it didn’t work out in our favor too well. As for Tulo, it’s hard to recommend him right now, but I am doing it anyway. I don’t think he is all of a sudden this mediocre hitter because he left Coors. Sure, he may see some regression due to the Coors factor, but this below-the-Mendoza Line batting average has to improve eventually. He looked like he was swinging the bat well in San Fran and reached base in each game, including pelting a homerun off of Matt Cain, a BvP selection on Tuesday, so we are back at it again. Another good thing is that it’s starting to get hot and humid in North Texas meaning balls are going to fly farther and runs will come in buckets. Perez is a legit groundball pitcher, but Perez has regression coming with his .250 BABIP and 5.29 SIERA. After getting embarrassed by mediocre Rangers’ pitching in Toronto about a week ago, I think it’s going to be time for the BJs to return the favor!
Robinson Cano – 2B – Mariners – vs. Nick Tropeano
BvP: 2-for-5, 2 BB
Analysis: Outside of the entire Red Sox lineup, Cano might be the hottest hitter in baseball. He has 20 hits in his last 10 games, including 5 multi-hit performances. Sure, SAFECO isn’t a desired hitter’s park in DFS, but Cano has that upside no matter where he plays. Hitting in the middle of the order for the M’s, Cano faces Tropeano, who is allowing a .377 wOBA, a .281 batting average and nearly 40% hard contact against lefties this season. Needless to say, the BvP is light, but Cano is one of the best 2B hitters in the game. It’s only a matter of time before he gets the best of Trope.
Bryce Harper – OF and Ben Revere – OF – Nationals – vs. Tom Koehler
Harper BvP: 9-for-28, 1 2B, 6 HR, 11 RBI, 3 BB
Revere BvP: 10-for-22, 2 RBI, 6 SB
Analysis: Caveat Emptor!!! Buyer Beware. Should Bryce Harper’s appeal fall through, obviously don’t play him today! With that said, both of these picks worry me a little bit, and here’s why. Last year, Harper hit 5 home runs off of Koehler and was 7-for-15 off of him before the 2016 season. This has been a BvP recommendation this year and it paid off, but Bryce is only 2-for-13 with a HR off of him for the season. People argue that you can’t rely on BvP, so I will join that club, sort of, and throw out the 2-for-13 and stick with the fact that he has 6 HRs off of him the past two years. Harper’s recent performance is somewhat astonishing: 7 straight games with at least 1 walk. In those 7 games though, he has EIGHTEEN walks! Yes, one game was 6 walks (also insane), but the guy is a points machine. He hasn’t hit a HR in any of those 7 games and is certainly overdue for his next one. As for Revere, he’s a worry because he’s trying to get back into the baseball routine, so his form may not be where we would like for this matchup. With that said, it’s Tom Koehler he’s facing here, a guy he has 10 hits off of in 22 ABs, so I’d say he’s comfortable at the plate. Those 6 steals against Koehler are awfully nice as well, which is the main reason he is stacked with Harper.
Chris Sale – White Sox – vs. New York Yankees
PvB: 15-for-68, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 28 Ks
Analysis: Honestly, this feels like a trap game for Sale. He’s due for some regression, in a hitter’s park and everyone will argue how atrocious and banged up the Yankees are. Yes, Jacoby Ellsbury may not be in the lineup and Teixeira came back from injury last night, so the Yanks’ lineup isn’t anything to scarf supper over. Sale also is 7-0 and won’t go through the season undefeated. Either way, Sale is the top pitching option on the board tonight against a powerless Yankees lineup. I was burned by Chris Sale a lot last year, and while his K/9 is down this year, I still believe he is an elite pitcher who can go out there and eat up innings, strike out 10 and get the win.
Lastly, we have our 6th chance at cashing on DK using BvP plays.
Here’s tonight’s lineup, so let’s hope it can produce for us for our first cash since switching to DraftKings.
Narrative: It should be no shock to see a Blue Jays stack here to go along with Alex Presley and Chris Herrmann as cheap options. Junior Guerra gets a boost at his value price with his matchup against the RH-heavy Padres. Again, it’s likely some of my guys may not even be in the lineup, so if that happens, then this could look completely different. Good luck everyone!