Let me say this now, I am all in on the Rangers at home tonight against the most unfortunately named Doug Fister.
I’ll get into that intro statement a little later, but we got off to a great start to the week. Today is the weekly Wednesday split and so we will focus only on the night slate of games, of which there are 11.
Not only do we have double-digit games, but we have a swath of aces on the bump tonight, including an exceptional pitcher’s duel between David Price on the road in San Fran against Maddy Bumgarner.
It should be an interesting night for DFSers, including how much players will fire up rookie phenom Jameson Taillon who is making his major league debut against the Mets.
Enough talk, more picks. Good luck to you. Oh, don’t forget to check out dailybaseballdata.com for the any and all BvP stats.
Adam Jones – OF – Orioles – vs. Edinson Volquez
BvP: 4-for-9, 2 HR, 3 RBI
Analysis: Buck Showalter’s decision to insert Adam Jones into the leadoff spot has certainly revitalized MLB’s Pacman. He’s got hits in 8 of his last 9 games, including a number of multi-hit efforts. While a bat that torches lefties, Jones has his moments against RH pitching. One of those guys he’s had success against early on is Edinson Volquez, who is completely out of form. EV’s road ERA of 6.62 is certainly ugly, but perfect for the Orioles, who are coming off a 9-run effort and a melee against Yordano Ventura. This is a prime spot for Jones at the No. 1 hitter for the O’s.
Matt Adams – 1B and Matt Carpenter – 3B – Cardinals – vs. Alfredo Simon
Adams BvP: 3-for-10, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB
Carpenter BvP: 4-for-12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: Anytime I can target the Big Pasta, I am down. The main Cardinals bats laid a huge dud last night, but St. Louis doesn’t fair as well against lefties as they do RH pitching. In fact, the Cardinals are atop the majors in offense against RH arms, carrying a .346 team wOBA and a .202 team ISO. They should be even better with Jhonny Peralta back in the lineup. My only concern with these plays are the amount of times both Adams and Carpenter will face Simon as I expect them to bounce Simon early like they did in an earlier meeting. Nonetheless, someone has to plate the runs necessary for that to happen and I will take both of these lefty bats against Simon’s god awful .439 wOBA and .360 BAA vs. lefties. You’re welcome.
Alex Rodriguez – 1B/3B and Carlos Beltran – OF – Yankees – vs. Jered Weaver
Rodriguez BvP: 11-for-29, 2 2B, 5 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB
Beltran BvP: 2-for-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Analysis: Outside of the Rangers, former Ranger great Alex Rodriguez is my favorite BvP play of the day. He checks all of the boxes: Lots of HRs vs. pitcher, lots of walks, hitter’s park, opposing pitcher with worse road splits than home splits, a reverse splits pitcher with .382 wOBA and nearly 40% hard contact against RH bats, and a hot bat. As for Beltran, he’s somehow only faced Weaver 6 times in his career and he has 2 bombs against. Aiming at the short porch in right is another great opportunity for Beltran to unload, like he did yesterday against lefty, oh whatever his name was: Spare McGee.
Rougned Odor – 2B, Prince Fielder – 1B and Jurickson Profar – 2B – Rangers – vs. Doug Fister AND Yu Darvish – SP – vs. Houston Astros
Odor BvP: 2-for-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Fielder BvP: 3-for-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Profar BvP: 2-for-3, 1 RBI
PvB: 18-for-69, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 23 Ks
Analysis: I guess you could call this a 4-man stack. It is likely the first time I’ve recommended so many players from one team. Unfortunately, you cannot play all three bats on DraftKings any longer as of today because Profar is no longer SS eligible. Shame on them! His price finally jumps AND they take away multiple position eligibility. Nonetheless, it won’t stop me from having exposure to lefties against Doug Fister, including the hottest thing going in Profar. Fister comes in carrying a .383 wOBA, a .297 BAA and a 37.6% hard contact rate against lefties. Fister shut down the Rangers earlier in the year, but this is a completely different ballclub with Profar leading off and the onslaught that follows. Fister has held RH bats in check very well, so I am targeting lefty Rangers, including Mazara. Oh yea, let’s not forget Yu, who is coming off two solid outings with pitch counts. I expect the reins to be unleashed tonight against the Astros 26% strikeout rate. Yu has 12 Ks in less than 11 innings, so that elbow should be of no concern going forward. I think Yu flies under the radar with people thinking he might be limited again and with the likes of Thor and Scherzer on the mound. I’ll roll the dice myself.
Lineup Narrative: As we have been closing BvP for MVP, we have our second lineup of the week. It was a rocky start after a $3 flop last night, but I am loving the Yanks and Rangers tonight with some Cardinals sprinkled in. Taijuan Walker comes in with high upside at home against a middle-of-the-pack strikeout team. Diaz is a play i like due to getting burned yesterday (yes, I am sticking it to the man known as recency bias!) and then Oriole Pacman and the trio of Rangers get plugged in with A-Rod, McCann and Beltran. Lots of upside here I believe. Good luck everyone!