Welcome back to another installment of BvP for MVP.
Before we get started, some acknowledgement needs to be given to one of our own. Mr. Brad (unofficial nickname) has been killing it with his pitcher picks of late via his “On The Hill” write up, including a perfect day of picking last week. He’s atop our expert leaderboard and it’s not even close.
I think his official nickname should be “The Adam Conley Whisperer.” He kind of gave himself the nickname, but I think it’s fitting. I will be interested to see if he likes him tonight on the road against the lowly Twins. Keep up the good work!
Anyhow, it’s summertime for me, which means I’ll be able to apply more time to my picks and research, even with a 6-month-old at home. Let’s just hope the extra time translates to success and not over thinking things too much.
Tonight we have a full slate of action with one ace that looks like a home run (Zack Greinke vs. Tampa Bay). There are a ton of young arms on the mound, including Dodger phenom Julio Urias, who might have been called up prematurely. He gets his first home start of his career against the Rockies, so perhaps his cheap price tag will provide huge upside in his first home start.
As always, there are a few garbage tossers (I’ll be thinking of new names to use besides gas can) that we can target against.
I’ve managed to come up with 9 picks tonight, though I would’ve loved to narrow that down (I suppose I can’t be trusted to select only a handful because I get al excited like a kid on Christmas morning). If I have a bad outing, I am OK with it though because it keeps me honest and humble. If my picks burn you one night, please keep recency bias in mind and that one of our own netted a 5-figure win thanks to this very BvP article and Brad’s pitching prospectus.
As always, I remind you to check out dailybaseballdata.com for a quick and easy BvP reference.
Now, in the words of MIlls Lane….
Manny Machado – 3B/SS – Orioles – vs. Yordano Ventura
BvP: 3-for-9, 3 BB
Analysis: The “Walk-a-Thon” is a possible name of this game when it is all said and done. Both Yordano Ventura and Ubaldo Jimenez (more on him later) are walk machines. I don’t know how Ventura hasn’t been smacked around more this season. Perhaps todays the day against the Orioles and their top-5 offense against RH pitching get to the Royals’ pitcher. Machado is about as same as it gets for cash games. So far he’s just 3-for-9 against Ventura, but he has 3 walks and hits atop the order for the O’s. Machado is a rare batter that shows consistency against both pitcher handedness. Ventura owns a 4.68 ERA with a 5.60 SIERA. He’s a shook up can of coke waiting to burst!
Daniel Murphy – 2B – Nationals – vs. Mat Latos
BvP: 7-for-19, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: Burn alert! I am sticking with the numbers and the matchup despite that Mat Latos has been pitching way over his head and burning many of us who have targeted him. Murphy has been at an elite level at 2B. His .384 average is highly likely to be unsustainable all year, but I’ll continue to ride the lightning while it’s hot. He’s got a .366 average on the road and gets a chance to elevate his game in a hitter’s park. Latos has a .330 wOBA against lefties this season. Murphy is the top-priced player at his position, so it’s possible he goes underowned a bit with so many quality 2B to play and with lots of talent priced at $5,000-plus. I’d say he’s a GPP play only, but wouldn’t argue with you if you wanted him in your cash games.
Rajai Davis – OF – Indians – vs. Wade Miley
BvP: 3-for-7, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: I was on the James Paxton bandwagon last night. Trust me, it was a very small caravan. But regardless, Rajai continued to produce despite the 100 mph heat from Paxton. Tonight he gets to face off against a lesser pitcher, the Miley Cyrus of Major League Baseball, and he’s got 2 HRs against in 7 ABs. Davis doesn’t provide a lot of pop from his bat, but he’s flashed it against Miley early on. There’s always the chance he swipes a bag, too, so Davis is a perfect play to score points in a myriad of ways.
Justin Turner – 3B – Dodgers – vs. Eddie Butler
BvP: 8-for-11, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: The Dodgers’ offense is quite disappointing, but the potential is there night in and night out. Justin Turner gets a spot in our BvP picks against lowly Eddie Butler. Now, Butler’s numbers are certainly inflated due his stints at Coors, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great pitcher outside of that park. He carries a .350 wOBA with a 37.5% hard contact rate against RH bats. Turner is plugged into the heart of the Dodgers’ lineup and is a whopping 8-for-11 against Butler in his career. It’s still a small sample, but it’s a sample I will continue to ride until I see some regression. Turner comes cheap and will be vastly underowned.
Eric Hosmer – 1B – Royals – vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
Hosmer BvP: 10-for-29, 1 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 6 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: Ah, here we come back to Mr. Jimenez, who is the cheapest pitching option on the board tonight. That’s not because he should be a value play, it’s because he’s effing awful. He’s given up 5 or more ER in 4 of his last 7 starts. Three of those starts have been 6 ER efforts. Needless to say, Jimenez is not in good form and takes on a scrappy, tough Royals squad. Despite the Royals being held in check last night by Mike Wright of all people, I’ll take Hosmer and a handful of other Crowns in my lineup tonight. Hosmer went from super cheap against Wright to the top 1B price on the board. I think he is still cash game and GPP worthy tonight despite the lofty inflated price tag. I get the rise in cost, Ubaldo has allowed a .400 wOBA to lefties this season and a .330 BAA.
Ian Desmond – OF and Ryan Rua – 1B/OF – Rangers – vs. Dallas Keuchel
Desmond BvP: 4-for-8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB
Rua BvP: 5-for-10, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: The Rangers might be the hottest team in baseball right now. A walk-off come back took game one against Houston and now Texas gets a struggling Dallas Keuchel, who owns a 5.93 road ERA, is in a game at the extremely hitter-friendly Rangers’ Ballpark in Arlington, and has been lit up by the Rangers twice already to the tune of 13 ER. Desmond hits in the two-hole and again comes at a price, but he’s red hot with 18 hits in his last 11 games, including three games with 3 or more hits. As for Rua, he’s moved up in the order of late and comes in with 10 hits in his last 7 games. The entire lineup has been extremely hot with the callup of Jurickson Profar and there don’t seem to be any signs of slowing down tonight.
Jose Bautista – OF and Josh Donaldson – 3B – Blue Jays – vs. Matt Boyd
Bautista BvP: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Donaldson BvP: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Analysis: I don’t know if Boyd constitutes a pitcher who should be labeled a gas can, but he’s struggling at the major league level so far. Bautista and Donaldson are probably two of the top options for me against the Tigers’ lefty. Bautista still sits very cheap on DK for being a slugger that hits atop the Blue Jays lineup. Donaldson comes in under $5000 as well, but provides lots of pop against southpaws (.432 wOBA and .315 BAA). I could see the BJs being the chalk tonight, so I feel both guys above are both cash game and GPP worthy.
Lastly, let’s recap last week’s BvP lineups and check out what I am playing tonight.
|Date||Contest Type||Entry Fee||Lineup Score||Winnings||Profit||Total Profit|
Had a nice victory on Wednesday of last week to keep our profit from faltering too much. It seems like we are coming through with a cash at least once a week. The 133 from last week was very close to cashing, also.
Here’s a look at tonight’s lineup.
Lineup Narrative: I am banking that Barnhart continues to be inserted into the Reds’ starting lineup. I need the punt at the position. Greinke is my favorite (and likely everyone else’s) pitcher of the night. I’ll ride the Adam Conley train though the Twins can be sneaky against lefties. Jurickson Profar continues to mash atop the Rangers’ lineup and his price has not met his production, so I am rolling him out against as a switch hitter against Keuchel. Upton also is very cheap with huge upside and is starting to swing the bat well finally.