It’s the final installment of the week for BvP for MVP. Tonight we have a 14-game slate because the Cubs play their usual Friday day game at Wrigley.
There are some very interesting pricing options across the board on DraftKings, especially for pitchers.
But the biggest pricing discrepancy I’ve seen is not quite a $220 Kike Hernandez snafu, but it’s a wonder how much the ownership will be for one Giancarlo Stanton.
Mired in an awful slump, Giancarlo is bound to turn it around sometime. Because of this slump, his price has dropped significantly. The artist formerly known as Mike sits at a grand total of $2,800. Yes, he might go 0-for-4 with 4 strikeouts as he is facing fireballer Jon Gray, but I think he’s worth the roster spot for the enormous upside and power he possesses. Anyway, I’ll be interested to see his ownership percentages and use in cash games tonight.
Also of note, there are 5-6 guys I LOVE at first base, but I didn’t want to present too many options at the position, so I narrowed down the ones I like the most.
Before we get to the picks, this is a friendly reminder to visit dailybaseballdata.com for all BvP data for each day’s slate of games.
Now for the soup d’jour!
Chris Davis – 1B – Orioles – vs. – Aaron Sanchez
BvP: 6-for-10, 1 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: With hits in 9 of his last 11 games, Crush Davis is usable again in DFS. He does have quite the matchup against young phenom Aaron Sanchez, but it’s not a matchup he can’t handle. As you can see, Crush has popped Sanchez for 3 HRs already and the two get to duke it out in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Sanchez is allowing more than 1 home run per 9 innings to lefty bats this season along with a 33% hard contact rate. The Orioles give RH pitchers fits, so there should be ample opportunity for Davis to plate some runs.
Nelson Cruz – OF – Mariners – vs. Roenis Elias
BvP: 1-for-4, 1 2B, 1 BB
Analysis: Like a fat kid who loves his or her cake, like a kid on Christmas, like having hot, fresh pizza ready to eat and delivered to your doorstep, I get giddy when I see Nelson Cruz on tap against a southpaw. Cruz is a lefty crusher and he’s on fire right now. Nelly has 14 hits in his last 10, including four multi-hit games. Elias, the former Mariner, takes the bump for the first time this season in a Red Sox uniform. In limited action this season, Elias owns a .416 wOBA against RH bats. Fenway Park favors RH bats thought he Green Monster has the tendency to gobble up would-be HRs and extra-base hits. Cruz is the top-priced OF on DraftKings unfortunately, so you have to be creative to fit him and some other top bats in your lineups.
Alex Avila – C – White Sox – vs. Trevor Bauer
BvP: 6-for-11, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: Avila will fly under the radar tonight. He has 10 hits in his past 10 games, including 4 multi-hit efforts. Tonight he faces Trevor Bauer on the road. Normally a reverse-splits guy, Bauer has coughed up more hits than outs against Avila in his career. Bauer struggles at Progressive Field where he has a 4+ ERA. Progressive favors left-handed bats and luckily for us, Avila bats from the left side. He’s a solid punt play at catcher, a position worth punting on most nights.
Edwin Encarnacion – 1B and Michael Saunders – OF – Blue Jays – vs. Mike Wright
Encarnacion BvP: 3-for-7, 2 RBI, 2 BB
Saunders BvP: 2-for-5, 1 2B, 1 RBI
Analysis: This was going to be a 3-man stack, but it remains to be seen if Jose Bautista will play after exiting yesterday’s game with an injury. I could’ve used Ezekiel Carrera and Ryan Goins as recommendations, but I didn’t want to have a ton of picks and I like them more based on where they will hit in the lineup. Mike Wright is likely the gas can, garbage tosser or noodle arm of the night and the Jays, who are playing much better baseball, should wreck shop at Fenway tonight. The downside of recommending Saunders is his DK price tag of $5,000. I guarantee that means low ownership for him and he might be only a GPP option on that site. But let’s not forget E5, who is on a tear. He has three straight games with HRs and 5 home runs in his past 5 games. He’s got 4 multi-hit efforts in his last 5 games as well. He destroys RH arms and gets the Fenway bump. Deploy with ease.
Masahiro Tanaka – SP – Yankees – vs. Minnesota Twins
PvB: 9-for-33, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 8 Ks
Analysis: The Minnesota Twins are near the bottom in a lot of offensive categories against RH pitching. Their .305 wOBA and .146 ISO are paltry numbers. Tanaka has been a beast away from Yankee Stadium this season with a 1.36 ERA in 39 road innings. He holds RH bats to a .288 wOBA and is even better against lefties (.233). The Twins have a mixed bag of bats, but there aren’t many that offer a lot of pop or much to be desired. Tanaka is a great ground-ball pitcher. His K/9 isn’t as high as we would like, but he does get a bump against the Twinkies 22.6% K rate.
Lastly, let’s get to today’s BvP lineup.
Lineup Analysis: Julio Urias isa super-cheap option with lots of upside against the strikeout-prone Brewers. Pairing him with Tanaka provided two really cheap options that I like to collect some Ks and the W. The Astros are another team that I love tonight against lefty John Lamb. Jose Altuve is a guy that you can’t go wrong with against lefties. Jose Ramirez is a dart throw against lefty Jose Quintana, a guy he’s had some success against. Lastly, we have Ryan Goins and Saunders to complete a 3-man BJs stack, Nelly Cruz and the oh-so-cheap Stanton. Good luck all!