Hey, June! We are into the third month of the 2016 season. I hope your winnings have been fruitful and your losses bare.
June is the time of the year where we start to feel summer’s unbearable heat with July and August being the worst months to feel its torturous grip.
We have an 11-game slate on tap for tonight with a few aces on the hill. Scherzer, King Felix, Lester, Tanaka and the now defunct Chris Archer are all available to use in your lineups today. On top of that, there’s another game for the Rockies and Reds in Coors where the two teams have hit double-digit homeruns combined the past two games.
Before we get to the picks for tonight, please check out dailybaseballdata.com in case you are curious about all other BvP stats.
Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Diamondbacks – vs. Mike Fiers
BvP: 3-for-8, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Goldy is catching fire once again and this is when you should jump on the Goldschmidt ship. He owns a 6-game hitting streak coming into tonight, including a 3-hit performance in yesterday’s loss to the Astros (more on them shortly). Goldy is sub-$5,000 on DraftKings and is a perfect play at 1B in any format. Against RH pitching this season, Goldy has a 19.3% walk rate with a .389 wOBA and a .248 ISO. The piece of the puzzle should fit perfectly here as Fiers is a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .395 wOBA and 42.6% hard contact against same-handed batters. Goldy also gets to shoot for the left-field short porch known as the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park, an added bonus for one of the best hitters in the game.
Kyle Seager – 3B – Mariners – vs. Christian Friedrich
BvP: 5-for-6, 2 HR, 5 RBI
Analysis: At first I scoffed at these BvP numbers, but then I took a better look at Friedrich’s numbers more closely. Friedrich has pitched well so far this season, but he is pitching over his head. So far, he has a sub-2.00 ERA with a SIERA of 5.50 and is allowing hard contact to lefties at 42.5%. I think this play is strictly a GPP, but stacking him with lefty-mashing Nelson Cruz would be a great play. Seager should go way under the radar despite being relatively cheap and a 4-game hitting streak coming in, including a 3-hit effort yesterday.
Kendrys Morales – 1B and Alicedes Escobar – SS – vs. Chris Archer
Morales BvP: 7-for-11, 3 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Escobar BvP: 7-for-9, 1 2B, 1 SB
Analysis: The artist formerly known as Chris Archer gets a tough test against a surging Kansas City Royals squad. If you ned some cheap options to fit in the top pitchers, I think this is where you need to go. Morales and Escobar have combined to go an insane 14-for-20 against Archer, who is pitching on the road where he has struggled this season (7.36 ERA). I think Archer turns it around, but maybe not tonight. Archer is allowing 40% hard contact to right handed pitching and owns a .385 wOBA against them. Morales is coming in with some signs of life, collecting 3 hits in last night’s game and has reached base in 5 straight. As for Escobar, he’s the lead-off man for the Royals and people might be off of him with his 0-for performance last night. A stackable pair of batters who likely go underowned due to the name of the opposing pitcher.
George Springer – OF and Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros – vs. Robbie Ray
Springer BvP: 3-for-4, 2 2B, 1 RBI
Altuve BvP: 4-for-8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: The Astros have caught fire, and for me being a Texas resident seeing their tumultuous ways, I knew it was only a matter of time. The ‘Stros are top 10 in hitting versus lefties this season and come in against Robbie Ray who is allowing 40% hard contact to right handers and a .377 wOBA. It’s possible Ray collects a high strikeout total, but i am willing to bet he will get shelled. Springer has three, 3-hit games in his last four and 5 multi-hit affairs in his last 10. The switch to leadoff hitter has really sparked Springer and the ‘Stros offense. Altuve is a well-known lefty beater who is coming out of a funk, collecting his third straight multi-hit game on Tuesday.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF and Marcell Ozuna – OF – Marlins – vs. Jon Niese
Stanton BvP: 12-for-29, 1 2B, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 2 BB
Ozuna BvP: 5-for-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI
Analysis: There’s a theme today: target bats vs. lefties. Stanton has been out for a week, but should he return today, I love him against soft-tossing Jonathon Niese. He’s nearly .500 against Niese and has a tendency to hit much better at home than on the road. Marcell Ozuna has seen his price skyrocket due to his recent perfofrmance, but a date with Niese at home where Ozuna boasts a .367 average and Niese owns a .378 wOBA is a match made in heaven. Stanton comes cheaper, but he may not be in the lineup. Check out lineups prior to lock.
Max Scherzer – Nationals – vs. Philadelphia Phillies
PvB: 25-for-131, 5 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 BB, 32 Ks
Analysis: Scherzer comes in with the steepest price tag, but even though he has a 20 strikeout performance, I haven’t felt very comfortable about him all year long. The Phillies continue to be a scrappy team that can make life difficult on a pitcher and should Ryan Howard sit again (and hopefully he just retires because he’s the worst hitter in baseball in my mind), this could be a tougher spot for Scherzer than normal. He hasn’t been exactly perfect and has shown flaws in his delivery and location at times. I will still take the matchup and the victory for Scherzer as the Nationals are up against one of the top 5 gas cans of the night in Adam Morgan.
Lastly, it’s lineup time! Having no Coors bats hurt my lineup last night, unfortunately, but it was a solid performance for many of our BvP plays. it was the peripheral plays that let us down.
Analysis: Fitting in Max Scherzer didn’t work for me in this lineup as I like the Astros a lot tonight. Stacking them could be risky, but is a solid option as a pivot from Coors. Hopefully another Coors fade won’t bit me a second night in a row. Good luck everyone!