Sometimes BvP numbers are erratic. It’s why it’s a hot-button issue in daily fantasy baseball.
I’ve been wanting to try something for some time and it’s using BvP data to predict who is due rather than who is going to do well.
What that actually means is using players like Josh Donaldson in situations like he was in yesterday against Chris Young.
I can’t go back and look at the exact numbers, but I believe he was somewhere around 1-for-17 against Young in his career. So what does that 1-for-17 tell us or mean?
Does it mean CY has Donaldson’s number? Or is there something about Young’s delivery that is difficult for the reigning AL MVP?
I faded Donaldson in every lineup yesterday and only because I looked at the numbers at face value. Surely Donaldson would struggle again, right? That’s what I thought. Lefties have killed Young this season, but RH bats have fared well also.
Donaldson popped 2 HRs off of the aging 6-foot-10 Young, leaving my lineups in the dust.
That sample size is really small, but I forgot to factor in a couple of things when fading JD (and Tulo btw). The age of the pitcher and the age of the hitter.
Young isn’t getting younger. Donaldson is hitting his prime. Young’s arm is dwindling, but Donaldson’s plate presence is rising (if that’s even possible, the guy is already damn good). Donaldson also is riding a significant hot streak, and I also didn’t factor that in.
I say all of this to remind you (and myself) to don’t always take the numbers at face value. Even a guy that is 10-for-15 off of someone is going to record a few outs here and there. But the reverse is true as well. Pitchers who are struggling or aging are not going to fare as well against batters that are maturing and improving.
At some point, i would like to make a lineup based on the anti-BvP numbers and see what happens, hell maybe even make some picks too. Anyway, enough babbling, time for picks!
Before you read below, check out today’s BvP data at dailybaseballdata.com, even for the early slate, which we don’t do on Wednesdays when the slate is split.
Mookie Betts – OF – Red Sox – vs. Martin Perez
Analysis: Many people may not like Martin Perez too much, but I do. He keeps the ball down and gets outs. He’s not going to make a lot of people swing and miss, but he’s typically not a guy who gets blown up. With that said, I am picking on him today because he’s facing the Red Sox at Fenway. Betts is on fire and has multi-hit games in 3 of his last 5 games and sports a .315 home batting average. Perez has regression on the horizon despite his elite ground ball rate. The Red Sox are a team that can make like difficult for either handedness. The sample size is small, but I am taking the hot bat at the lead-off position against a mid-range level lefty at Fenway.
Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Blue Jays – vs. Ian Kennedy
BvP: 6-for-31, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: This is probably me chasing last night’s big night from Tulo after skimping out on him despite a decent BvP line. Ian Kennedy is the cream of the crop….for allowing fly balls. He has the worst GB/FB rate of the slate at 0.69. Kennedy is allowing 1.89 HR/9 innings this season and has seen regression get the best of his fast start. Kennedy is awful on the road and will be in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Away from home, Kennedy has a 5.37 ERA and as served up 16 homers. Yes, 16! Tulo doesn’t have the greatest track record against him, but the walks, the 3 bombs and his current heater have me loving this matchup.
Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros – vs. Wade LeBlanc
Analysis: I am not sure what to think about the Astros ownership tonight. To me, they are in a great spot. At home against a lefty who is pitching WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY over his head. But they could easily flop around like a fish out of water. I’m going to side that the Astros’ recent success is here to stay and Altuve should be at the head of tonight’s pummeling. It’s LeBlanc’s first start away from home and is working with a short porch in left for RH bats.
|wOBA vs. L||Avg. vs. L||Hard vs. L||HR/9 vs. L||wOBA vs. R||Avg. vs. R||Hard vs. R||HR/9 vs. R||K/9||GB/FB||BABIP||ERA||xFIP||SIERA|
|0.414||0.3||25.0 %||3.86||0.133||0.097||28.0 %||0||6||1||0.156||1.5||4.14||4.25|
That’s where LeBlanc’s numbers are right now. He has yet to allow a HR to a RH bat this season, has an unsustainable .156 BABIP and a 4.25 SIERA. He’s a flyball pitcher…ok look, he’s not a good pitcher. He hadn’t pitched since 2014 and I am not convinced he’s the next Rich Hill. Altuve is one of the best bats against lefties, owning a .427 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Carlos Beltran – OF and Brett Gardner – OF – Yankees – vs. Miguel Gonzalez
Beltran BvP: 5-for-9, 3 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB
Gardner BvP: 9-for-26, 4 2B, 3 BB, 3 SB
Analysis: Both of these guys kind of give me the heebie jeebies, and that’s usually a good thing for me. Miguel Gonzalez has got pummeled at home this season, owning a 7.84 ERA in 4 starts. The Yankees put up some runs against Carlos Rodon last night, and he’s a lefty. They are much better against RH bats and Carlos Beltran has been a big reason for that. Beltran leads the team with a .363 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. He’s proven he can hit Gonzalez and with hard contact as he has 4 extra-base hits in 9 ABs against him. Gardner is here because I like the potential for a stolen base. Gardner may not be what he used to be on the base paths or as a hitter, but he’s still dangerous atop the Yankees’ lineup. I also would understand you stacking Brian McCann with these three in GPPs tonight.
Buster Posey – C – Giants – vs. Jorge de la Rosa
BvP: 10-for-36, 4 2B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: Brian McCann is a solid option at C tonight, but I like Buster Posey more. He’s got a nice track record against JDLR, an aging gas can that actually pitches worse away from Coors field. In 2016, JDLR has a .398 wOBA vs. RH bats while Posey has 13 hits in his past 10 games. I would like to see more hard contact from Posey, but he’s basically matchup proof when up against a lefty and JDLR isn’t getting any younger (see my theme today?). Posey is safe in all formats.
Michael Pineda – SP – Yankees – vs. Chicago White Sox
PvB: 10-for-38, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 9 Ks
Analysis: I liked Tanaka yesterday but didn’t fork up the cojones to play him and it burned me. But Pineda I am much more comfortable with. The positive regression is finally going his way and he gets a chance to play away from that home run eating stadium in New York. The White Sox are not a very loaded offensive baseball team and Pineda’s ERA (5.24) is still 2 runs higher than his SIERA (3.29), suggesting the 37 Ks in his past 4 outings should continue tonight.
Drew Smyly – SP – Rays – vs. Los Angeles Angels
PvB: 7-for-34, 6 2B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 12 Ks
Analysis: I really liked Odorizzi yesterday after it came out that Trout wasn’t playing. Then he got lit up like my neighborhood on the Fourth. Well, I can’t let that bog me down tonight as Smyly, one of the unluckiest pitchers of the slate, is in a great spot to see some of that positive regression come his way. He has an elite K/9 rate (10.03) and has a 4.50 ERA at home, which is a run and a half lower than his road ERA. Smyly has yet to score a win at home this season, but is up against Jered Weaver, so I like TB’s chances of snagging Smyly’s first home win of the season. The strikeouts may not be double-digits tonight as the Angels don’t strike out a ton, but Smyly’s salary isn’t going to break your bank either. If he can eat innings and get the win, he’s well worth the value. Oh yea, forgot to mention the positive regression Smyly should be seeing this season. He’s got a 5.33 ERA, but a 3.56 SIERA. Something to look forward to.
Lastly, we have tonight’s lineup.
Analysis: Last night I swapped Brian Dozier due to the inclement weather in Minnesota. I also swapped Bobby Wilson for Josh Thole. Daniel Murphy made his way into my lineup and we had a nice start to the week. I’m hopeful we can continue that trend tonight. Prince Fielder and the Rangers are still playing well and get a game in Fenway. Tommy Pham is up against an awful lefty in Jeff Locke and Marwin has killed lefty pitching so far this season.