It’s the Friday edition of BvP for MVP. Thank you for coming back today.
On tap for today we have a full 15-game slate with a lot of games at hitter-friendly parks – Coors, Fenway, Camden, U.S. Cellular, Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre and Miller Park;
Pitching optiosn aren’t particularly great, though a lot of guys to choose from in the $8500 range and up, but only two true aces on the hill in Bumgarner and Yu.
Today’s intro is short, so please make sure to check out dailybaseballdata.com for all of today’s BvP data.
Now it’s time for picks!
Manny Machado – SS/3B – Orioles – vs. Trevor Bauer
BvP: 5-for-8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Trevor Bauer has improved leaps and bounds this season and has been pitching much better on the road than at home. But none of that scares me off of Machado, who struggled in the past 5 road games. Machado is a much more proven hitter at home where he sports a .331 batting average. It doesn’t matter if a lefty or righty is pitching, Machado is matchup proof.
Nelson Cruz – OF – Mariners – vs. Marco Estrada
BvP: 4-for-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Marco Estrada is an anomaly to me. On one hand, he is a fly ball pitcher with a 0.7 GB/FB rate. He pitches in an extreme hitter’s ball park, but has a home ERA of 2.44. On the other hand, he has an overall ERA of 2.93 and has yet to really blow up. He’s been consistently giving up ERs and is combing back from the DL. Something has to give and I think the Mariners, who always seem to hit better away from SAFECO, are a sneaky play. One reason I feel that way is Nelly Cruz, who hasn’t hit a home run in 9 games. He has done well in a very small sample size with Estrada, but Cruz could make that change very quickly.
Brian Dozier – 2B – Twins – vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
BvP: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: Dozier is going to be one of two 2B tonight. That’s something I don’t normally like to do, especially with a position like 2B where options aren’t always plentiful (tonight is an exception to that by the way). Eduardo Rodriguez might be the cannon fodder of the night. E-Rod has a 7.18 ERA with a 5.58 SIERA. He has an ERA of more than 7 at home. Dozier is an elite play against lefties and is playing in a park that favors RH hitters. I don’t feel like I have hit on Dozier much, or at all, this season. All I can do is keep plugging along and keep playing him in potent spots.
Justin Upton – OF – Tigers – vs. Jacob Turner
BvP: 3-for-9, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: Gone are the days that Upton was dominant against lefty bats. He’s been a solid option against RH bats and is up against Jacob Turner, who could battle E-Rod for the Fodder of the Night away. Turner has very few starts this season, but he’s been eaten up by RH bats, which have a .715 wOBA, 54.6% contact rate and a 4.5 HR/9 rate. Those numbers are inflated of course and will come down, but the Tigers are full of RH bats and feast on RH pitching. Upton should be in the mix for fantasy points in a hitter’s park.
Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros – vs. Matt Shoemaker
BvP: 7-for-17, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: Because of the matchup, Altuve is a GPP-only play. There’s not a lot of times I would say that about Altuve considering he is currently one of the best players in baseball. Shoemaker has really turned things around this season, but I expect him to come back down to earth at some points. With Altuve hitting 3rd these days, there should be plenty of chances for Altuve to see good pitches and help plate some runs. Shoemaker has also given up 1.5 HR/9 to RH bats this season as well. Favor goes to Altuve.
Gerrit Cole – SP – Pirates – vs. Philadelphia Phillies
BvP: 9-for-43, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 12 Ks
Analysis: I’ve never been a buyer on Gerrit Cole. He’s constantly overpriced and can’t match the production required to meet that price. However, his price has dropped significantly and he’s in a prime spot against one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Cole has a comfortability at home and the Phillies are hapless and helpless. This is by far one of my favorite pitching plays of the evening as Cole has a .333 BABIP that should start declining toward league average. The strikeouts might not be there, but a 6-7 inning shutout for Cole is certainly in play with a win.
And our last lineup of the week…
Analysis: I am playing Altuve over Dozier, but have exposure to the Twins/Sox with Sano. Lindor, Pearce and Montero are in solid spots tonight. Jon Gray is another pitcher I like. He’s still got a lot of positive regression coming his way and Chad Bettis played well last night against the Braves, who are the worst team in Major League Baseball.