We have a full slate of action for tonight with some studs on the mound, a game at Coors, and a battle between two has beens that will be “never was” in 2016.
That “battle” might be one of my favorite games to target bats in tournaments (hell, maybe even cash games) and you are going to see a lot of those names in the picks below. I’ll keep you in suspense until the picks…and you just scrolled down to the picks…
Anyway, we have 10 picks for today with three sets of stacks, so it’s boom or bust for us tonight.
Some plays I just love a lot, so I try not to duplicate positions with picks. That pick today convinced me to not make David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera official picks, but I certainly will have exposure to them, especially Miggy who he and the rest of the Tigers burned me square in the ass yesterday, and it’s still red today.
At any rate, before we dive into today’s picks, please check out dailybaseballdata.com for all of today’s BvP data.
Jayson Werth – OF – Nationals – vs. Scott Kazmir
BvP: 5-for-7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Guess who is the best bat against lefties on the Nationals’ squad? Give up? No, it’s not Max Scherzer, it’s Mr. Werth. Werth will likely go overlooked tonight due to the name he’s up against, but I am not fearful of that. Werth walks 12% of the time against lefties, has a .259 ISO, 51.5 % hard contact and a .451 wOBA. What more could you ask for? Ok, well Kaz is a flyball pitcher in a decent hitter’s park and has allowed 1.51 HR/9 to RH bats this season.
Buster Posey – C – Giants – vs. Rick Porcello
Analysis: So far in 2016, Rick Porcello has been a reveres-splits pitcher, allowing a .342 wOBA and a HR/9 rate of 1.49. The fact this game is in Fenway favors RH bats a ton and here we have Buster Posey, who is dangerous against both righties and lefties. This is a notably weak sample size, but I really like the matchup in this venue.
Victor Martinez – 1B/C and Ian Kinsler – 2B – Tigers – vs. Tommy Milone
Martinez BvP: 5-for-10, 1 RBI
Kinsler BvP: 6-for-19, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Analysis: Our first stack of the night is V-Mart and Kinsler. After a brutal 1-0 victory for the Tigers in a great spot last night, I am hoping a lot of people jump off the bandwagon today. Miggy is a solid play here, too, though he’s been dreadful against lefties this season. Martinez and Kinsler have not been dreadful as both are at the top of the class for the Tigers against southpaws. Kinsler has a .250 ISO with a .450 wOBA while V-Mart has a .200 ISO and a .361 wOBA. Tommy Milone has been a nightmare this season, sporting a .365 wOBA and a .311 batting average against right-handers. The Tigers are full of RH bats and could be a great tournament stack tonight.
Mike Trout – OF and Albert Pujols – 1B – Angels – vs. Kyle Lohse
Ian Desmond – OF, Adrian Beltre – 3B and Shin-Soo Choo – OF – Rangers – vs. Tim Lincecum
Trout BvP: 3-for-3, 1 2B, 1 3B
Pujols BvP: 5-for-12, 2 2B, 4 BB
Desmond BvP: 10-for-15, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SB
Beltre BvP: 1-for-2, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Choo BvP: 3-for-4, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Note: I am combining both sets of picks into one. So before I get to any analysis (not that I really need to analyze anything after I show you this), here’s how well Kyle Lohse and Tim Lincecum are pitching this year.
|Pitchers||Team||wOBA vs. L||Avg. vs. L||HR/9 vs. L||Hard vs. L||wOBA vs. R||Avg. vs. R||HR/9 vs. R||Hard vs. R||K/9||GB/FB||BABIP||ERA||xFIP||SIERA|
|Kyle Lohse||Rangers||0.501||0.4||3||38.5 %||0.419||0.333||4.5||50.0 %||5.4||0.5||0.368||10.8||7.16||6.07|
|Tim Lincecum||Angels||0.371||0.333||1.32||35.6 %||0.51||0.409||1.8||31.6 %||7.99||1.68||0.43||6.85||4.58||4.66|
Analysis: The battle of the has beens kicks off with the Angels and Rangers. The Angels have Tim Lincecum on the hill while Kyle Lohse (the 2016 version of Wandy Rodriguez) takes the mound for the Rangers. I wish this game were in Texas, but it’s not, however, I still think there is great chance this game could fly under the radar with Coors, Chase and Fenway games on the slate. Just look at those wOBAs and hard contact rates for these guys. Their SIERAs are awful and I can’t imagine either of these guys having a very good outing any time soon. Trout is one of the best bats against RH pitching, and along with Pujols, are well-known Ranger killers. Ian Desmond is the BvP darling of the day with 10 hits out of 15 ABs against Lincecum. Beltre is just a gut call for me while Choo should be back in the lineup and leading off tonight. If I had a segment titled “Sleeper Picks of the Night,” it would be these quints right here.
Carlos Martinez – SP – Cardinals – vs. San Diego Padres
PvB: 10-for-31, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 6 Ks
Analysis: Now we are on to my favorite pitching option of the night. Did you see what Mike Leake did to this team with his 10 Ks in 5 innings? Well, Carlos Martinez is much more effective with his strikeouts than Leake, sporting a 7.63 K/9 rate. The Padres strikeout a ton against RH arms, a 24.3% rate to be exact, and are a bottom 2 offense in terms of team wOBA. Martinez pitches very well at Busch Stadium and with a lack of lefty bats that can produce (C-Los weakness), Martinez should be a very safe cash game option tonight. Oh, and one more tidbit, Martinez has yet to give up a home run to RH bats this season! How crazy is that?
Lastly, we have tonight’s lineup.
Analysis: I left $1,600 on the table for this one. I played Story to get a bat at Coors for the lineup and am going with the debut of Reynaldo Lopez for the Nats, who struck out more than 100 batters in 70+ innings in the minors. I’ll take that K rate at a minimum $4,000. I didn’t put Choo in this lineup though I could’ve instead of having Desmond and left less money on the table, however, I love Desmond tonight along with Pujols, Trout and Werth.