Baseball is finally back!
How did you spend the time off from baseball DFS? Researching for the Open Championship? Catching Charmanders, Squirtles and Pikachus via Pokemon Go?
Well, I spent a few days enjoying family and nursing a sick child, our daughter’s first stomach bug. We all weathered the storm, she healed up and we all slept, to use a misnomer cliché, “like a baby.”
The “second half” of the season starts tonight, but I put that in quotes because we are actually past the halfway point of the season.
We are changing the way we display our grades for our experts. The grading formula won’t change, but we are adding a column for the experts by pitcher and hitters, so check that out when we post on Mondays.
It’s time to fire up the picks, but be sure to check out dailybaseballdata.com for all of today’s BvP stats.
Jose Reyes – SS – Mets – vs. Jeremy Hellickson
BvP: 8-for-21, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: In his first six games since returning from suspension, Reyes has reached base in his last five and has collected six hits. He has been inserted right up at the lead-off spot and provides an enormous boost to a reeling and beat up offense. Tonight Reyes faces Hellickson, a pitcher we should always pick on, especially with lefties. Hellickson owns a .350 wOBA vs. lefties and has a 1.67 HR/9 rate. While we can’t expect Reyes to go yard, we can expect him to get on base with the greatest number of ABs as possible. Reyes’ price is sure to inflate quickly and he’s a very cheap option on DraftKings.
Salvador Perez – C – Royals – vs. Justin Verlander
BvP: 22-for-46, 7 2B, 2 HR, 13 RBI
Analysis: Perez was the top AL catcher for the All-Star game and he was one of the hottest hitters in baseball prior to the break. He had 7 hits in his past 4 games, including a couple of home runs. Perez has crushed Verlander and sports nearly a .500 average against the Tigers’ ace. Perez has destroyed Tigers’ pitching this season also with 13 hits in 28 ABs, 3 HRs, 9 RBIs and an average of 14.9 DK points. Also in our favor is Verlander’s reverse splits, allowing a .320 wOBA and a 1.62 HR/9 rate against RH bats.
Ian Kinsler – 2B – Tigers – vs. Ian Kennedy
BvP: 6-for-9, 4 2B, 3 RBI
Analysis: I am not sure if Kinsler has appeared as a pick this season. He’s one of my least favorite baseball players DFS aside. He doesn’t hustle to first when he puts a ball in play from the leadoff spot and strikes out too much. Anyway, I like him a lot tonight against the extreme flyball ability of Ian Kennedy, who has allowed 17 road HRs this season. i don’t care that this is Comeria, Kennedy has been awful away from Kauffman and the Tigers are on the best teams against RH pitching this season. Kinz has 4 extra base hits in only 9 ABs. The sample size is small, but the upside is huge. I really like Kinsler tonight along with the Tigers as a stack option.
Jay Bruce – OF – Reds – vs. Matt Garza
Bruce BvP: 12-for-32, 4 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: While I like Kinsler today, I absolutely love Jay Bruce. He is my favorite BvP play of the evening. We get to target Bruce against a mediocre pitcher in a hitter’s park. Bruce’s price isn’t too expensive on DK, but he’s likely to go somewhat overlooked as most Reds do. Bruce has gone all Hulk on Garza in his career while Garza has tossed beach balls to many batters this season already, including a .345 wOBA versus lefties.
Corey Dickerson – OF – Rays – vs. Yovani Gallardo
BvP: 4-for-6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Analysis: When I go through and make my selections, I always type out players I am considering. Then, I weed out the ones I don’t want to use as picks. Dickerson was on the fence for me, but I decided to keep him on the list. Dickerson was starting to heat up right before the break with 8 hits in his past 5 games. Dickerson will be playing in the Trop where he’s only hit 3 of his 13 home runs this season, but Gallardo has been atrocious on the road and against lefties. This season Gallardo owns a 7.83 road ERA and a .420 wOBA, .329 batting average against and a 2.45 HR/9 versus southpaw bats. Dickerson hasn’t hit a home run in a very long time, so let’s just say he’s due.
Carlos Gonzalez – OF – Rockies – vs. Lucas Harrell
BvP: 4-for-8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: Yes, this game is away from Coors Field. No. Lucas Harrell is not a good pitcher. Yes, it’s hot in Atlanta these days. No, Turner Field isn’t quite Coors Field. Yes, Carlos Gonzalez is suuuuuuper cheap on DraftKings and mashes RH pitching. No, his sample size isn’t the largest. Yes, that part of the BvP area for CarGo doesn’t botther me. Yes, you need to roster CarGo in cash games against Harrell’s unsustainable 11% hard contact rate against lefties and his 4.22 SIERA.
Buster Posey – C – Giants – vs. Andrew Cashner
BvP: 12-for-28, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: Recommending two catchers isn’t something I would normally do, but I really like both options. Posey has strengths hitting both types of arms, even RH pitching. Cashner is weak against both sides of the plate, especially right-handed versions. Cashner owns a .410 wOBA against RH and allowing nearly 2 HR/9 also. This game might be in PETCO, but Posey is venue and matchup proof in my eyes. He’s the second-highest priced catcher on DK and in a pitcher’s park, so he could certainly have lower ownership in tournaments.
Madison Bumgarner – SP – Giants – vs. San Diego Padres
PvB: 28-for-161, 8 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 12 BB, 51 Ks
Analysis: Bumgarner continues to mow down batters. Heading into the ASB, Bumgarner dispatched the Diamondbacks with 14 Ks. Bumgarner has regression coming at some point, but I don’t see him having any struggles with the Padres, who have just 11 extra-base hits in 161 ABs. Bumgarner has found his stroke against the Padres this season as well, going 2-0 with 20 Ks and just 3 ERs in 15 2/3 innings pitched. PETCO is one of the top pitcher’s parks and the Padres struggle a lot in their own park. A 23.8% K rate against southpaws doesn’t the argument to roster Bumgarner either, does it? Not that I needed to really convince you to roster him anyway.
Lastly, we are back at our BvP lineup construction.
Analysis: Wanted to get exposure to the D-Backs against Bud Norris, so I went down to Perez instead of Posey. JDLR has a great matchup against the Braves, but he’s JDLR, so anything is possible I suppose. Jose Abreu gets the HR-prone Hector Santiago. The rest are all BvP plays.