Happy early Fourth of July!
American Independence Day is a great day for baseball and I can’t wait to be sitting around the house with family and food and watching day baseball. I certainly enjoy it before the worst week in sports rears its ugly head – MLB All-Star Break.
But I don’t want to be depressed about that upcoming event, so let’s focus on the final BvP for MVP of the week.
Wednesday was a great night for us with 4 A+ players out of 6 options. I could be making ground on Brad and his “On the Hill” series yet, but still a steep hill to climb.
Tonight we have only a 13-game slate with a couple of afternoon games playing before the 6 p.m. lock.
There’s not really a game that stands out as a possible offensive outbreak as there are a lot of pitchers parks on tap for tonight. There is a game at Fenway, where the Red Sox thrive. There’s also some cannon fodder on the mound in that game for the Angels, so that looks like a likely chalk offense to stack. There is a game at Chase Field as well, which might have sneakier options for bats.
Make sure you check out dailybaseballdata.com for all BvP data for today’s games.
Now on to the picks!
Alex Gordon – OF – Royals – vs. Jeremy Hellickson
BvP: 8-for-16, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Since returning from injury, Gordon has been slotted in the two-hole (giggle) for the Royals. He still might be finding his stroke (giggle again), but he’s been very successful against Hellickson early on in his career. He is hitting .500 against him, but doesn’t have the power numbers I normally like when recommending BvP plays. However, Gordon comes at a value tonight and will be in a ballpark that favors hitters. Hellickson struggles with lefties, owning a .378 wOBA and a 2.02 HR/9 rate. Gordon is due to make one leave the park against Helly.
Prince Fielder – 1B – Rangers – vs. Ervin Santana
BvP: 7-for-18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: The Prince has finally returned! Fielder is finally starting to produce at the plate after a huge season-long slump. He’s reliable again and it couldn’t come at a perfect time. Ervin Santana is far from the shade of his former self. Santana owns a 5.19 home ERA and the Rangers are one of the best offensive teams in baseball. Not only does Santana have to contend with a solid lineup 1-9, but that makes pitching to a hot Fielder that much more difficult. Target Field doesn’t play to the strengths of lefty bats, but Fielder’s power ices any hindrance about the ability to hit a homerun (but you can ask Joe Mauer how it’s hurt his power). Anyway, Fielder is my favorite BvP play of the slate.
George Springer – OF – Astros – vs. Miguel Gonzalez
BvP: 4-for-9, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Analysis: Geor-ge! Geor-ge! Geor-ge! Geor-ge! Yea, a flat attempt at mimicking the Jerry Springer chants, but you see where I was going with that now, Back to baseball, Springer and the red-hot Astros are climbing the AL East standings and showing why they are one of the best young hitting teams in baseball, even if they do strike out a quarter of the time each game. I attribute their resurgence to inserting Springer into the leadoff spot, where he belongs. Tonight Springer draws Gonzalez and I like where Springer’s bat is at right now. He’s drawing walks, which is a great sign that he’s comfortable at the plate. M-Gon allows both lefties and righties to take him to the woodshed, including a .344 wOBA vs. RH hitters this season. Springer won’t come cheap, but could be a great tournament option with 2 HRs in 9 ABs against M-Gon.
Robinson Cano – 2B – Mariners – vs. Kevin Gausman
BvP: 5-for-9, 1 3B, 2 RBI
Analysis: I love to pick on guys who have extreme home/road splits. Gausman is one of those guys. He’s normally dominant at home, but can’t hit the target on the road. With a 5.11 road ERA, Gausman faces one of the better teams against RH pitching. Gausman is a reverse splits pitcher, but still allows 35% hard contact to lefties, so the opportunities are there for Cano who is on a nice heater with 10 hits in his last 6 games. Cano is cheap at $4300 on DrafKings, making him cash and GPP worthy. Hopefully more extra-base hits are in Cano’s future against Gausman, starting tonight.
Jhonny Peralta – SS/3B – Cardinals – vs. Matt Garza
BvP: 17-for-37, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: I can’t argue a Cardinals stack against the once overrated Matt Garza. The Cardinals are one of the top offenses against RH pitching and Garza is due to blow up since returning from injury. Garza has been a reverse-splits pitcher early on in 2016 with a .387 wOBA and a .357 batting average against RH bats. He’s yet to allow a HR this season at all, so I am putting my call for Peralta who could be a great tournament option tonight with his inflated price, especially on Draftkings.
Jaime Garcia – SP – Cardinals – vs. Milwaukee Brewers
PvB: 30-for-149, 3 2B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 10 BB, 32 Ks
Analysis: Away from Miller Park, the Brewers are a mediocre team at best. Despite being a team filled with RH bats, they struggle against left handed pitching. The Brew Crew in the bottom quarter of team offense and near the top in K% against lefties (23.9%). In 149 ABs, Garcia, a ground-ball pitcher, has allowed just 5 extra-base hits against Milwaukee and he is at home where has a 3.73 ERA compared to his 4.40 road earned-run average. Garcia has had his struggles of late, but he’s been a bit unlucky and his peripherals show he should have some positive regression (not a ton) coming his way. With a 2.31 GB/FB ratio and a near 8 K/9 rate, Garcia should be a safe play tonight at home and be in line for the win against Garza.
Lastly, we have our BvP lineup for the night. But before you look at it, our Wednesday lineup was fantastic and had I even realized that Freese was 1B eligible, it could’ve been a very great night. We finished 35th overall in the Solo Shot for a $15 finish.
Analysis: Nathan Eovaldi has been struggling, but he gets the best cure for his ailment – the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park. With him and Garcia, we are able to load up on bats. Non BvP selections are Posey (versus the awful Shelby Miller), Correa to pair with Springer and the red-hot Mike Trout at Fenway. Let’s hope we continue our momentum from Wednesday!