A lot has happened in the world of baseball since Friday’s BvP for MVP.
Mark Teixeira and A-Rod each announced their retirement and Ichiro got much-deserved reverence for his 3,000th career hit.
Also, Manny Machado popped 3 homeruns in the first three innings Sunday for a whopping 50 DraftKings fantasy points. No big deal…
So I mentioned how I have returned to my full-time career as a teacher Friday and Monday was my first full day back. There’s a lot going on right now and with trying to get prepped for the start of the school year, last week will be the last for any BvP lineups. It didn’t take a lot of time, but any chance I can gain some time back right now, I will take utilize it. For the season, we were in the black with a $20 profit. I can buy a few McDonald’s value meals with that, but hey, any profit is good profit.
Now that I’ve cleared the air, let’s get down to the picks for tonight. Make sure you visit dailybaseballdata.com if you want to see any other BvP data for tonight’s slate.
On tap we have 14 gmes due to the Coors game being played early. I got a little carried away with the picks, but there are some great matchups for bats tonight. There also are quite a few quality pitchers on the mound with a shells of cannon fodder for our liking, so hopefully you find the right combo for you to make some dough.
David Ortiz – 1B – Red Sox – vs. Luis Severino
BvP: 3-for-5, 3 HR, 3 RBI
Analysis: Make sure you check Big Papi’s status tonight as he was removed from play on Sunday, but if he is slotted back at DH (which I expect), he’s got a prime matchup at home against Severino who he has already severed for 3 HRs. The sample size is small, but Papi’s participation in Yankees/Sox rivalries are nearing an end and he destroys pitching at home — .353 avg., 15 HR, 59 RBI. I see lower ownership for Papi tonight with the Cubs up against Weaver (Rizzo). Severino has been tough on lefties this season, but that shouldn’t matter for Ortiz.
Jacoby Ellsbury – OF – Yankees – vs. Rick Porcello
BvP: 12-for-28, 2 2B, 4 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 4 SB
Analysis: I am taking the narrative street here to couple with BvP success. Ellsbury returns to his stomping grounds where you know he will want to play well. But he also gets a juicy matchup against Porcello and is our BvP Darling of the Night. Ellsbury has just 4 HRs on the season, but has 4 career dingers against Porcello. I am not predicting a home run for Ellsbury, but I am expecting him to find ways to get on base against his opposition and against his former team.
Matt Kemp – OF – Braves – vs. Wily Peralta
BvP: 7-for-14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: Have the Braves screwed you over lately? Yea, me too. So let’s ride the wave. Wily Peralta is one of my favorite pitchers to pick on in DFS. He doesn’t do much well despite a high-end 90s fast ball. Peralta has been unlucky this season (.378 BABIP), but with the ball park boost of Miller and the recent surge of run scoring ability by the Braves, I will take Kemp against Big Wily’s .438 wOBA and .373 batting average against RH bats
Billy Hamilton – OF – Reds – vs. Mike Leake
BvP: 4-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: This is one of those pricing calls for me. I’ve started to notice pricing for certain players skyrockets at times and while I don’t have any proof (yet) to back it up, I think elevated prices for players who aren’t at Coors and aren’t the studs of their team, is a clue that perhaps production is projected to be high. B-Ham is $4,900 up against Leake, who was a value darling just a couple weeks ago but has struggled with 19 ERs in his past 3 outings. Hamilton is the Godzilla of base stealing when he reaches and could literally steal two bases after reaching first.
Nelson Cruz – OF – Mariners – vs. Daniel Norris
BvP: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Analysis: Oh, Nelly Cruz is up against a lefty? If you have been following me for awhile, you know this is a no-brainer. I don’t even need to explain myself!
Marcell Ozuna – OF – and Giancarlo Stanton – OF – vs. Matt Moore
Ozuna BvP: 5-for-6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Stanton BvP: 3-for-8, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: The first of two, 2-man stacks and it’s all southpaw oriented. First, we have Matt Moore rolling into Miami for the Giants, and while the ballpark is a boost for pitchers, I will side on Ozuna’s and Stanton’s outrageous power versus lefties. I also am not a Matt Moore fan and am very glad the Rangers didn’t trade for him. Moore is a flyball pitcher that has been lucky this season (though not that much really). He has a 4.06 ERA paired with a 4.76 SIERA and .270 BABIP, so he has been able to steady the overcorrection for now, but I am going to bank on the Marlins putting up some runs tonight and it starts with the GianZuna (new nickname?)
Josh Donaldson – 3B and Michael Saunders – OF – Blue Jays – vs. Drew Smyly
Donaldson BvP: 8-for-17, 3 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB
Saunders BvP: 3-for-8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI
Analysis; Like Stanton and Nelly Cruz, Josh Donaldson is an automatic play for me against a lefty and tonight is no different. Smyly may be able to make some bats miss, he still has extreme flyball tendencies (0.66 GB/FB) and has allowed 1.55 HR/9 to RH bats. Put 50 checks next to Donaldson’s name. But then there is Saunders, who I had written off (and definitely expect the masses to do the same). But then I saw two things: 1. Smyly has been dreadful against lefty bats this season, allowing a .341 wOBA while allowing 2.14 HR/9. 2. Saunders has crushed lefties this season, almost as well as Donaldson. Saunders owns a .337 ISO and .415 wOB vs. southpaws. Give me all of that in cash games and especially tournaments.
Max Scherzer – SP – Nationals – vs. Cleveland Indians
PvB: 18-for-133, 4 2B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 19 BB, 36 Ks
Analysis: I debated actually including Scherzer. I mean, you don’t need me to tell you about why you play Mad Max. But, I think BvP has been very indicative of predicting solid production for pitchers (and you can see proof of that on our expert rankings for pitching). The walks in the above stat line aren’t flattering and the Indians are a really good baseball team, but Max is an elite pitcher at home who can make bats miss. I think Maeda is my top pitcher for the evening, but Max is a close second having allowed jut 18 hits in 133 ABs against the current Cleveland roster.