I was hopeful the Rangers and their new faces would find a way to get to Dylan Bundy last night, but Bundy made fools of the Rangers bats and looks like a legitimate candidate to help anchor the O’s starting rotation the rest of the season.
Bundy’s price is surely going to be on the rise in DFS, but it is a good idea to roster him while the gettin is good. Tonight the Rangers can rebound against Kevin Gausman, and I like this spot much better than last night for Texas. Gausman is a reverse-splits guy and there are a handful of players the Rangers can throw out there to get to Gaus. The Rangers are likely a low-owned stack that could definitely pay off.
Anyway, time to shut up the fandom talk and get down to business. We have 12 game, oddly enough, on the Wednesday night slate. Perhaps the rising summer temperatures are the reason for the added night games on the Wednesday split.
Before you read my picks, check out dailybaseballdata.com for all of tonight’s BvP stats.
Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros – vs. Marco Estrada
BvP: 4-for-11, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SB
Analysis: The Astros are struggling and to make things worse, their young fireballer Lance McCullers left last night’s game early with elbow discomfort (cringe!). Hopefully, it’s nothing major, but that’s not a good sign. I hope the Astros can put together another strong run and keep the Rangers on their toes the rest of the season, and perhaps they can get it together tonight against Estrada. Marco Polo is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has regression set to rear its ugly head. The Astros strikeout a bunch, but they can go deep a plethora of times. I am going to jump on all 5-foot-6 of Jose Altuve tonight and hope he can pop a couple hits and steal a couple bases.
Victor Martinez – C/1B – Tigers – vs. Chris Sale
BvP: 18-for-36, 3 2B, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: Before tonight’s game, I hope Chris Sale doesn’t make a mockery of his teammates locker room by setting their pants ablaze or anything. Kidding aside, I like V-Mart’s numbers against Sale, who now pitches more to contact than trying to make batters whiff. Sale has pitched well on the road and gets a ballpark boost, but V-Mart is tonight’s BvP Darling of the Night, having a .500 batting average against vs. Sale, including 4 HRs. Sale has struggled at times late in this season and I like the Tigers to be able to put up some runs behind the bat of V-Mart.
Michael Saunders – OF – Blue Jays – vs. Collin McHugh
BvP: 5-for-12, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Saunders might be my favorite play of the evening. He’s up against McHugh and his .356 wOBA vs. lefties. Saunders has been heating up recently, reaching base 7 times in his last 4 games. McHugh has pitched better at home, but he is always susceptible to giving up 3-4 runs in a game.
Kennys Vargas – 1B and Eddie Rosario – OF – Twins – vs. Trevor Bauer
Vargas BvP: 7-for-13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Rosario BvP: 6-for-14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB
Analysis: Well, since the Twins popped off and decimated Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco in back-to-back games, why not the 3rd man on the totem pole, Trevor Bauer. The youngsters are starting to get it done for Minnesota, especially Max Kepler. Both Vargas and Rosario sport +.200 ISO versus right handed pitching. It just so happens that Bauer allows a 41.9% contact rate to lefty bats and Progressive Field favors lefty bats. I am stacking the Twins tonight to hopefully ride the wave.
Cole Hamels – SP – Rangers – vs. Baltimore Orioles
BvP: 20-for-83, 7 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 7 BB, 27 Ks
Analysis: My call to avoid Maddy B paid off and I might be off Johnny Cueto for the same reason (yes, the Phillies scare me). Anyhow, I am not the biggest Cole Hamels supporter. He doesn’t wow me when he is out there, but the Rangers seem to win when he takes the mound. Tonight, I am recommending him as a BvP play, and I believe this will be the first time all season I have rostered Hamels in my DFS lineups, no joke. Hamels has been outstanding on the road this season with a 1.71 ERA and is 8-1 overall. The O’s are 25th in wOBA vs. southpaws (.302), so this is more than a plum matchup for King Cole.
Lastly, here is my lineup tonight using my BvP picks.
Analysis: Michael Wacha comes in as a decent cheap value as an SP2. I didn’t play V-Mart here, so I put in McCann instead so I could stack Vargas, Escobar and Rosario. Beltre, Cargo and Saunders round out the lineup along with Altuve.